Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for December, 2009

United Cardinal Bloggers project: Top five Cardinals’ stories of 2009

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

What a year it has been. For our final post of 2009, we present our top five stories of the Cardinals’ season, the final United Cardinal Bloggers’ project of the year:

  1. Cardinals roll dice to acquire Holliday
    Perhaps the Cardinals’ biggest midseason trade since they brought in Scott Rolen, the ripples of the Matt Holliday-for-Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson trade are still being felt today as the baseball world awaits Holliday’s winter signing. John Mozeliak put his reputation on the line to acquire the slugging left fielder, and Holliday posted a 9.5 RC/G in helping lead the team to the playoffs.
  2. Carpenter and Wainwright are twin Cy Young candidates
    Entering 2009, Adam Wainwright figured prominently in the team’s plans for success. Even so, few would’ve considered him as the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young. And while Chris Carpenter had obviously been there before — he won a Cy in 2005 — chances were slim that he would even get 20 starts, let alone vie for a second award. Although neither won the Cy Young, they finished second and third in one of the closest votes ever (the 10-point margin separating the top three finishers was the second-closest in NL voting), and Wainwright actually received the most first-place votes.
  3. Cardinals win division title
    Making the playoffs is the highest form of success in baseball these days, and few figured the Cardinals would top the Cubs in 2009.
  4. Ryan comes of age at shortstop
    Despite another no-confidence vote to begin the season, Brendan Ryan closed the team’s revolving door at shortstop by playing the best defense in the league at the position. You know it’s big news when Tony La Russa compares his shortstop to Ozzie Smith.
  5. Pujols wins third MVP
    Fans may take his dominance for granted, but winning the MVP is always noteworthy, especially when it’s a player’s third. Pujols passed Rogers Hornsby, who won two, and tied Stan Musial.

Also receiving consideration: Pineiro’s career year, the rise and fall of Wagner Mateo, Herzog inducted to Hall, team mustaches.
[Author's note: How could we leave out Skip Schumaker's bold transition to second base? Sorry, Skip.]

Twelve Days of Christmas 2009: Day 7

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

On the seventh day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
seven triples tripping,
six wins off-walking,
five All-Star Games;
four expected fielding-independent runs,
three MVPs,
two Gold Gloves,
and a Cooperstown inductee.

  1. In December, the Veterans Committee elected longtime Cardinal manager Whitey Herzog to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
  2. Catcher Yadier Molina and pitcher Adam Wainwright won their second and first Gold Gloves, respectively.
  3. Albert Pujols won the third MVP award of his career, surpassing Rogers Hornsby and tying Stan Musial.
  4. The Cardinal pitching staff posted a 4.05 expected Fielding-Independent Pitching run average, fourth in the National League and their best since 2005 (3.96).
  5. On July 15, the Cardinals hosted the fifth major-league All-Star Game to be held in St. Louis, tied for the third-most of any city.
  6. The Cardinals had six walk-off wins in 2009, with their final two coming back-to-back against the Cubs:
    1. July 1 vs. Giants (Rasmus home run)
    2. July 29 vs. Dodgers (Pujols single)
    3. Aug. 16 vs. Padres (Rasmus home runs)
    4. Aug. 28 vs. Nationals (Pujols home run)
    5. Sept. 18 vs. Cubs (Holliday home run)
    6. Sept. 19 vs. Cubs (Ryan single)
  7. Brendan Ryan led the team with seven triples, the most since David Eckstein in 2005 (7).

Baseball Bloggers Alliance Hall of Fame ballot

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

The 2009 Hall of Fame ballot, like the most recent few, looks a lot like the most prized possessions in our baseball card collection back when we were a kid: Tim Raines, Jack Morris, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker. We feel like getting out our ‘84 Donruss Don Mattingly and Barry Larkin ‘87 Topps rookie.

So it’s tempting in our nostalgia, of course, to want to honor more of these players than we should — they were the best players of our generation! Thankfully, we have resources like career WAR lists to bring us back from the brink of sentimentality. (Don’t worry: we didn’t think of voting for Parker. Well, not very long, anyway.) As a dutiful netizen and honored member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, we’ll explain how we pulled the lever in this year’s BBA Hall of Fame vote. It’s a relatively long list (though not as long as this BBWAA guy’s), especially considering how many actually got in with the BBA vote, but it’s about being deserving, right?

  • Roberto Alomar: As much as we disliked him as a human and as a Met (and that was when we were a Mets fan!), we can’t argue with his greatness: 85th all-time on the position players WAR list with 63.6.
  • Alan Trammell: It’s refreshing to see the Sabermetric numbers back up what we, living in an NL city in a pre-cable era could only assume about this obscure-teamed American Leaguer: He was outstanding (69th on the WAR list) if unheralded.
  • Tim Raines: We knew he was good, but better than Jackie Robinson? At 81st on the WAR list, he just may have been (at least in terms of playing ability). In an era when stolen bases were king, he not only stole a lot but avoided outs, both on the bases (85% success rate) and at the plate (lifetime .385 OBP).
  • Bert Blyleven: We’ll admit: Blyleven never so much as received the dignity of a cellophane card sleeve in our collection. But we realize now that we were duped by dinosaur-stat-loving card designers pushing 20-game winners like Lamar Hoyt and Jack Morris on us ignorant kids who couldn’t see past Blyleven’s win-loss record. Indians players were relegated to the "commons" bin, but Blyleven was anything but common: He’s 13th among pitchers all-time in WAR, for cryin’ out loud, and no one can claim ignorance about the uselessness of pitcher win-loss records these days
  • Andre Dawson: At #130, he’s a relatively more difficult choice to defend, we grant. But that’s still ahead of some indisputably great players — Medwick, Boudreau, Dickey, Slaughter, Cochrane, Rice, Sisler — so let’s be reasonable. In his time, Hawk was one of the best players in the game and even with his maligned OBP of .323 still created 1490.1 weighted runs, more than fellow Hall of Fame Cubbies Ernie Banks (1488.7) and Ryne Sandberg (1309.1).
  • Barry Larkin: Back in the day, claiming that Larkin was superior to Ozzie Smith would’ve earned you a wedgie, but it was true, at least according to WAR: Larkin is 59th; Ozzie 82nd. Along with Trammell and Cal Ripken, Larkin and Smith treated ’80s fans to seeing four of the game’s all-time best shortstops play.
  • Edgar Martinez: Martinez is an example of us simply trusting the numbers, for we have absolutely no visceral feeling that he should be a Hall of Famer. Yet it’s pretty clear that he should be, ranking #66 in WAR and an astounding 1601.9 weighted Runs Created (for reference, Willie McCovey had 1593.2). His hitting more than made up for his not playing in the field — heck, Paul Molitor is #46.
  • Dale Murphy: As much as we’re taking Martinez on blind faith in the stats, we’re relying on instinct with The Murph, though not without some statistical backing. Although he ranks relatively low in WAR (#227), his total of 44.4 is certainly comparable to the only other outstanding centerfielder of his era, Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett, with 45.0. Plus, he’s ahead of 20 existing Hall of Fame position players. During his nine-year prime, he was Matt Holliday combined with the Gold Glove defense in center of Andruw Jones.

Twelve Days of Christmas 2009: Day 6

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

On the sixth day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
six wins off-walking,
five All-Star Games;
four expected fielding-independent runs,
three MVPs,
two Gold Gloves,
and a Cooperstown inductee.

  1. In December, the Veterans Committee elected longtime Cardinal manager Whitey Herzog to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
  2. Catcher Yadier Molina and pitcher Adam Wainwright won their second and first Gold Gloves, respectively.
  3. Albert Pujols won the third MVP award of his career, surpassing Rogers Hornsby and tying Stan Musial.
  4. The Cardinal pitching staff posted a 4.05 expected Fielding-Independent Pitching run average, fourth in the National League and their best since 2005 (3.96).
  5. On July 15, the Cardinals hosted the fifth major-league All-Star Game to be held in St. Louis, tied for the third-most of any city.
  6. The Cardinals had six walk-off wins in 2009, with their final two coming back-to-back against the Cubs:
    1. July 1 vs. Giants (Rasmus home run)
    2. July 29 vs. Dodgers (Pujols single)
    3. Aug. 16 vs. Padres (Rasmus home runs)
    4. Aug. 28 vs. Nationals (Pujols home run)
    5. Sept. 18 vs. Cubs (Holliday home run)
    6. Sept. 19 vs. Cubs (Ryan single)

Twelve Days of Christmas 2009: Day 5

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

On the fifth day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
five All-Star Games;
four expected fielding-independent runs,
three MVPs,
two Gold Gloves,
and a Cooperstown inductee.

  1. In December, the Veterans Committee elected longtime Cardinal manager Whitey Herzog to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
  2. Catcher Yadier Molina and pitcher Adam Wainwright won their second and first Gold Gloves, respectively.
  3. Albert Pujols won the third MVP award of his career, surpassing Rogers Hornsby and tying Stan Musial.
  4. The Cardinal pitching staff posted a 4.05 expected Fielding-Independent Pitching run average, fourth in the National League and their best since 2005 (3.96).
  5. On July 15, the Cardinals hosted the fifth major-league All-Star Game to be held in St. Louis, tied for the third-most of any city.