For the last several years, the Cardinals’ outfield hasn’t exactly had an explicit platoon, and yet it has been anything but stable. The team hasn’t had three outfielders start at least 100 games each since 2002. They’ve averaged eight different left fielders a year during Tony La Russa’s tenure with the team. And they haven’t had anyone start more than 90 games in left field since their current first baseman did in 2003. Is 2010 the year in which the outfielder that the team submits this spring as its all-star candidates will be the same ones actually patrolling the Busch Stadium grass throughout the summer?

Let’s look at the sometimes motley crew of outfielders that La Russa has employed during his time in the Lou:

To be sure, it’s possible to win without having regular players in the outfield: The 2006 Cardinals used 12 different outfielders and only one of them started more than 100 games (Juan Encarnacion). Then again, that team won only 83 games. But the point is that while quality matters more than lack of quantity (in terms of number of players it takes), better players are usually the ones that you want to play the most, and so it’s natural that regular players produce more (though not always).

How could they do it? Undoubtedly, Matt Holliday is the lynchpin to a stable outfield. But Colby Rasmus, back for his sophomore season, and Ryan Ludwick, who is the only right fielder to have repeat 100-GS seasons for La Russa, provide a reliable complement.

Using the most conservative projection for Holliday — CHONE has him at 148 games — we’ll figure that, given his career percentage of games started to games played (99%), he’ll start 146 games in left for the Cardinals. That in itself would be the most of any Cardinal leftfielder since Vince Coleman started 150 games in left in 1987 (and the most of the La Russa era since Albert Pujols had 113 starts in 2003).

CHONE projects Rasmus to play 135 games, which, at the 82% rate at which he started games his rookie year, would be 111 games started, most or all of which will be in center.

Of the major projection systems, the Fans were most bearish on Ludwick, whom they figure to play 137 games (perhaps owing to his injury past). Even so, given his career games-started percentage of 81, that comes out to 111 starts.

If all three players hit anywhere near their projections, they’ll be the most regular Cardinal outfield since Pujols-Edmonds-Drew eight years ago. But what does all of that mean for the team this spring? Practically, it means that the outfield bench spots won’t matter as much as they have in the past. Whether it’s Joe Mather, Daryl Jones, Allen Craig, Shane Robinson, Nick Stavinoha or Jon Jay, the backups figure to spend a lot more time riding the pine than wielding it at the plate.

This entry was posted by Pip on Friday, February 19th, 2010 at 4:33 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.