Chris Carpenter struck out another slew of batters in his breezy outing Sunday afternoon. He also, as has become his habit in 2010, walked a few batters. Most pitchers who strike out eight and walked three each time out are very effective, but for Carpenter, who has refined his control over the years to generate ground balls, the uptick in power pitching reflects a marked difference in style.

In the following chart, showing Carpenter’s K, BB and HR rates per nine innings in seasons in which he threw at least 150 innings, you can see that in his pure power stats — walks and strikeouts — he has been slowly declining since the 2005 season and more generally since his first season with the Cardinals in 2004:

Attendant to his increased power numbers is an increase in flyball rate, and a necessary decline in groundball rate:

And, as smart readers know, home-run rates are a function of fly balls, so that explains Carp’s rising home-run rate:

It’s still early, of course, so Carpenter’s numbers will probably regress to his recent career performance. But the walk totals are still a bit perplexing: In 2009, he went 20 starts without allowing more than two walks in a game; this year, he has yielded three in half his six starts. Similarly, in his first 18 starts last year, he struck out as many as eight only once; this year, he has done it three times already. And yet he is every bit as effective as he was last year, featuring a 3.33 xFIP, compared to 3.38 in 2009. So call it a new-look Carpenter; he’s still as good as ever.

This entry was posted by Pip on Monday, May 3rd, 2010 at 9:37 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.