According to MLB.com, Brooks Conrad’s walkoff grand slam Thursday in Atlanta was the 23rd in major-league history. Curiously, Cardinal players were responsible for two of those: Roger Freed (5/1/1979) and Carl Taylor (8/11/1970). Both players were perhaps as unlikely to turn the trick as Conrad (who has a loveable story, by the way): Freed was a 30-something journeyman like Conrad, and Taylor played for three different teams in a 411-game, six-year career. Another similarity between Conrad and the Cardinal players is that they all hit their home runs as pinch hitters (though the MLB.com story does not indicate Freed and Taylor as such, leading us to wonder whether others in the list were).

Taylor, who mostly caught, was — as many backstops are — a student of opposing pitchers. Before the advent of widely available data, he kept his own log of pitcher tendencies on scraps of hotel stationery. Serendipitously, The Sporting News carried a feature story on him written just days prior to his feat (though it was published right after it on Aug. 22, 1970; ah, the days before instant publication). Neal Russo’s article, entitled "Book Work Pays Dividends for Cards’ Hawkeye," revealed some of the lessons from Taylor’s "book" that he had kept since 1962. Some of the dope was less than insider knowledge, such as his observation when he was a Pirate of future teammate Bob Gibson: "Better get to him early because he gets tougher as the game goes on, especially with men on base." However, that at least stood up under the scrutiny of data: Hoot was indeed most vulnerable in the first inning of games, with a 1.77 K/BB and .321 OBP and .359 SLG, the worst of any of his inning splits (though it’s less exceptional than one might think, since pitchers are guaranteed to face an opponent’s top three batters then). But Taylor also kept track of patterns, like Jim Nash’s approach: "If he had you two strikes and no balls or two strikes and one ball, he’ll throw a spitter [!] or throw hard than he has been." Of Ron Reed, he noted, "When he gets two strikes on you, he’s likely to throw the next pitch sidearm." Just think what Taylor, who outpaced Pete Rose in OBP in 1969 (though he didn’t qualify for the batting title), could’ve hit if Pitch F/X had been around.

One wonders what kind of statistics he had on the Padres’ Ron Herbel, whom he faced with the bases loaded and his team down 10-7 back in 1970 (he had previously faced Herbel four times and hit one home run). Perhaps current Cardinal broadcaster Mike Shannon knows. He was on second base and scored on Taylor’s historic slam.

We told our neighbor Wednesday before the game that the Cardinals didn’t need to worry about their series with the Marlins, since they’d miss Josh Johnson in the rotation. Guess we overestimated their ability to make contact with the ball (nine strikeouts).
Some notes:

• We love Rick Hummel but cringed at the second ‘graf of his game story: "This Garcia outing was not a so-called quality start because Garcia lasted just five innings and not at least six, having been forced to use 96 pitches in the laborious process. And there was no victory involved, either." Why dwell on silly stats when they clearly fail to match up with observed reality? Is someone forcing mainstream writers to work quality starts and wins into their stories?
• While we’re on the subject, innings pitched are an imprecise way to measure durability. Anibal Sanchez pitched seven innings to Garcia’s five but faced only three more batters (27-24). The difference was that Sanchez’s fielders turned more balls in play into outs: 76.5% to 64.3%.
• So we take it that Albert Pujols batting third wasn’t the problem with the Cardinals’ offense, after all. Can we just go back to the pitcher hitting eighth, and leave it? TLR admits that Holliday is struggling, but does he consider that moving him into the three-hole perhaps adds to the issue? All this tinkering reminds us of the 19th-century progressive movement.
• Is this offense really that much better than what Hal McRae offered? Is it any better? La Russa and the front office fell on their sword for this?
• Speaking of, how many days will it be until a mainstream writer posts something critical of McGwire?
• Based on Cameron Maybin’s postgame interview with St. Louis radio, Hanley Ramirez could learn a few things about graciousness, courtesy and team-orientation from him.

In case you missed our appearance in the Baseball Tonight Live chat last night, here are a few questions and answers pertaining to the NL Central.

What do you think the Cubs should do with Aramis Ramirez if he keeps on struggling?

Unless he’s injured or simply needs an extra night off, they need to keep playing him. JC Bradbury listed him as one of the “unluckiest” players so far, so expect him to rebound.

But my problem with him is that he has never been able to reach his potential: he looked like a 40 HR, 100+ RBI guy each year and he hasnt done that yet

Well, he’s been very productive, all the same. Remember that RBIs aren’t completely within his control, and a player can create runs in other ways besides HRs; Aramis had a career-high .389 OBP last year.

The Cubs really have no choice except to keep playing Ramirez.

I remember last year when Ramirez was struggling, albeit with injuries, but he turned it around some in the second half.

Yes, it’s a long season, and bad stretches look worse when they begin the season.

What do you think about the Pirates play? Over-achieving or might have a chance in the Central?

Their Pythagorean record — 10-29 — would indicate that they stink and just don’t know it yet. Seriously, though, although I don’t think they’ll contend, they have an even shot at finishing above 5th in the division for the first time since 2003.

Anyone have a prediction on a currently-struggling team that could rebound and contend for a division title?

The Brewers are playing worse than they probably are (unluckiest team in MLB according to Baseball-reference.com). Though the Cardinals are still the team to beat in the Central, they are playing tight right now and that trait could come back to haunt them in September.

jaysonst: Jason Heyward boggles my mind. His game-winning 2B tonight means he’s reached base 26 times in May — but K’d only 3 times. He’s Superman!

Jason, that’s almost as good as fellow rookie David Freese, who prior to tonight had reached 27 times in May!

Just when it looked like Chris Carpenter was becoming a bona fide power pitcher, he tosses in a pitch-to-contact dandy against the Washington Nationals. In facing a season-high 34 batters, Carpenter walked none and struck out "only" five, the first time he had a combined total of less than six since opening day. Tony La Russa remarked in his postgame press conference that the testy righty lasted eight innings because he’s “pitching to contact” and “not trying to strike everyone out," and that it was “by design.” But when your defense has a few holes (two errors), it’s probably safer to try for the strikeout. However, in fairness, the Cardinals do rank third in the league in defense-efficiency.

Other notes:

• David Freese made several sharp plays in the field, topped by his heads-up move in the fourth. Carp had gotten into a pickle, with runners on the corners with none out, pitching to the dangerous Josh Willingham. Willingham smacked a grounder to Freese, who could’ve instantly started a 5-4-3 double play, which he ultimately got. But he took a split second to freeze the runner at third before executing, and the Cardinals got a rare DP in which the runner doesn’t score.
• Carpenter was crusing into the fifth inning until he surrendered an 86-mph meatball to Nieves, who blasted a circuit clout. Carpenter had induced two swinging strikes on Nieves, who looked bad, in the third with cutters, but they were way outside; he left the gopher pitch up and on the inside half of the plate. Location completely changed the pitch — and how Nieves looked.
• Nyjer Morgan, who wears his socks like a ballplayer — actual stirrups — played centerfield for the Nationals. It seemed more of his teammates showed full socks, as if to mark the occasion. But instead of sharing in the manliness of the poor-man’s Juan Pierre, they looked like chumps by opting for the soccer sock rather than the stirrup. Related: Monday night’s starting pitcher Craig Stammen, who pinch ran Tuesday, rocked the socks, though he did not Monday.
• Willingham did his part to aid the Nats rally in the eighth by ducking his head and letting a slow Carpenter curveball plunk him on the helmet. Willingham is what baseball observers call a "professional hitter," which, though a vague term, seems to indicate a player with few athletic skills other than plate discipline (which of course is no small thing). It may also mean someone who is smart enough to realize that the tradeoff of a headache is worth a surefire way to reach base against Carpenter.
• It could be that Willingham’s lack of fear added to Carpenter’s frustration in that tense eighth inning. After the runner who reached via Schumaker’s error scored, Carpenter seemed to have had enough and took a comebacker all the way to first base himself. Remember, this is a guy who doesn’t particularly seem to enjoy running. The message seemed to be "If you want something done right, do it yourself," but we wonder what effect it has on teammates.
• Brendan Ryan can’t seem to get a break. TLR probably thought that inserting him as a pinch-runner would limit the chance of self-immolation, but, as the potential winning run, his getting picked off was as damaging as any of his erros or strikeouts. Ironically, though, Ryan’s lapse in concentration perhaps led to the winning play, anyway. After all, the emotional out might’ve been just enough to cause reliever Tyler Clippard to lose focus, for the very next pitch is the one that Ryan Ludwick popped out of the park. If Ryan doesn’t get nabbed, perhaps Clippard locks in on Ludwick. Not that that excuses Ryan’s boner.
• Speaking of Clippard, we expected more from a guy with a league-leading seven wins.
• The Nationals’ pregame notes praised Clippard for his win total and cited an apparent incongruence with the fact that he had blown a few saves recently. It reminds of those in wider culture who can’t seem to fathom how the crime rate could go down when incarcerations go up.
• We had the pleasure of meeting at the ballpark Dr. Alan Nathan, who is at the forefront of sabermetric research involving pitch F/X and other newfangled approaches to quantifying play.

Kyle Lohse contributed a strong start with a 58 FIGS — his fifth above-average start of the year — and the Cardinals nearly doubled their average offensive production from the last week as they took the first game of their series with the Nationals. To be sure, neither accomplishment definitively answered the team’s questions of starting-pitching and offensive reliability: Lohse faced a diminished Washington lineup without Adam Dunn, and the Cardinals created only 4.2 runs, on the strength of only two extra-base hits. Some notes:

• Obviously then, the Pujols-as-cleanup-batter experiment was hardly a rousing success. Pujols had three singles and a walk; Holliday merely a walk.
• The problem with the "experiment" is that if the team wins, regardless of the correlation, La Russa will likely keep it around.
• We can’t wait for the first game in which Holliday makes the last out of the game with runners on base and Pujols in the on-deck circle.
• The Nationals started former Cardinal second baseman Adam Kennedy (.325 wOBA) at first base in place of the ill Dunn (.398). It got us thinking about the biggest drop-off in production from a starter to his backup. For the Nats, the difference in wOBA between first basemen is .073. For the Cardinals, the difference between when Albert Pujols (.415) and Joe Mather (.244) play first is .171.
• A commenter on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight Live chat last night asked about Pujols’s strikeouts, and whether they’re related to notorious all-or-nothing hitter Mark McGwire. While it’s true that Pujols’s strikeout rate is alarmingly elevated this year — 16.6% compared to a career 11.2% — it’s unlikely attributable to McGwire, who, for being a dunderhead about a lot of things, probably at least has the good sense not to mess with Pujols’s swing. The culprit is an outrageously high (for him) outside-zone swinging rate of 30.3% (career: 19.5%). Why he’s chasing so many pitches outside the zone is another question. Another confounding stat: Though he’s making relatively good contact on those pitches, he’s not hitting strikes as effectively as usual, down five percentage points from his career norm. Any theories?
• Ryan Ludwick made another hustling catch last night in the eighth. The problem — if you can call it that — is that he looks awkward doing it. Whereas Colby Rasmus looks like a natural lefty and therefore his movements appear smooth, Ludwick looks like he’s always trying to fight his lefthandedness.
• Speaking of smooth moves, credit Jim Riggleman with a nifty bait and switch on the obsessive-compulsive La Russa. With the tying runs on second and third and the Cardinals’ no.-1 LOOGy on the mound, Riggleman pinch-hit for Willie Harries with righty Alberto Gonzalez (.319 wOBA). TLR took the bait and brought in the fireballing righty Jason Motte, to which Riggleman responded with his biggest bench bat, Dunn, getting a platoon advantage in the process. Perhaps TLR didn’t want to double down with secondary LOOGy Reyes. As it turned out, Motte struck out Dunn, but the outcome didn’t necessarily justify the means. (Update: Matthew Leach covers this in depth at his Chess Match blog entry.)
• Speaking of Motte, his bunting effort in the seventh in which he bunted through three pitches was one of the worst we’ve ever seen. If La Russa is going to use a different pitcher in the next half inning anyway, why not use someone — even another pitcher — who can bunt?
• We questioned the consistency of the official scorer’s calls on a couple of plays. He ruled Ludwick’s second-inngin fly ball, on which rightfielder Willie Harris didn’t go full speed and had the ball glance off his glove, a hit. But on a hard grounder to Skip Schumaker’s right, on which he dived and found the ball stuck in-between the fingers of his glove, he ruled an error on the Cardinal second baseman. We reiterate our call: Let’s just get rid of errors; they’re more problem than they’re worth.