What the heck happened to Dontrelle Willis? That’s not an uncommon question these days, as the erstwhile showman of the strikeout has turned wild thing. We felt sorry for the guy Tuesday as he struggled through four-plus innings, walking nearly a third of the batters he faced (six of 23). All totaled, he threw only exactly half his pitches for strikes, a stark contrast to the command that fellow moundsman Dan Haren demonstrated Monday.

Throwing as many balls as strikes is actually harder than it sounds, or at least somewhat uncommon. According to Baseball-Reference, it has happened only 118 other times since 1953, or only about twice a year. Indeed, it has happened twice this season already, previously accomplished by … Willis, back in May.

His 50% strike percentage, though, is a far cry from the worst on record:

The good news for Willis is that the list includes future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson. The bad news is that it also has Kip Wells. In case you’re wondering, the only Cardinal on record with a 50%-or-less strike total was Brian Barber back on 4/14/1996 (exactly 50%). Chris Carpenter also had a wild game with the Blue Jays (7/28/2000).

Willis is indeed a curious case. Watching him draw a walk then strike out whaling at a pitch in the dirt, our mind went to Rick Ankiel. Though Willis’s loss of control has been more gradual, his fade has been more noteworthy, insofar as he had once been a bigger star than Ankiel ever was. Willis looks like he can hit, at least as much as Ankiel did; he grinded out a walk in the third inning and has a career .279 OBP and.355 SLG, better than Ankiel’s numbers before he converted (.258/.310). We hope for his sake, and the game’s, that he can re-harness his talent — perhaps as Ankiel did in converting to the outfield — and return to major-league success.

Other notes:

• We really wish Albert Pujols would stop admiring his home runs. He’s a better player than that.
• If it wouldn’t have been seen as simply another wild pitch, Willis should’ve given Pujols some chin music after his first dinger.
• A day after Arizona pitcher Dan Haren socked a round-tripper, Adam Wainwright also helped himself at the plate, reaching base three times on two walks and a single. Gotta love pitchers who create, as well as prevent, runs.
• It’s hard to criticize a guy who reached base twice, but is Randy Winn as a righthanded batter really better than Colby Rasmus against lefties?
• Matt Holliday again ran into an out trying to turn a rocket off the wall into a double. We understand that when you hit a ball that far, you figure that you deserve second base. But short of getting the fences pushed back, which isn’t going to happen, Holliday needs to use some self-restraint and concede to physics: The harder you hit it, the faster it goes to the outfield.
• As an aside, the scorer’s ruling on Holliday’s hit — a single — was appropriate. Holliday made an out-of-control slide precisely because it was going to be so close (he didn’t slow down in time), and as a result, overslid the bag. The umpire ruled him safe — or, more accurately, "not out yet." But, after a split-second of indecision, he tried to return to second, where Kelly Johnson tagged him out. We agreed with the scorer because Holliday never established himself as safe at second.
• Speaking of Holliday, it appears that he has changed him country-style at-bat music. Looks like Cowboy Jason LaRue will have to take up the mantle.
• La Russa’s fascination with the sac bunt continues. After the first two batters of the fourth — fourth, mind you, not ninth — walked on a total of nine pitches, Aaron Miles bunted the runners over. And, as Providence would have it, neither runner scored. Others have said it before, and we’ll say it again: If you play for one run, one run is all you’ll get. And sometimes you’ll get none. It’s one thing to have a pitcher, who typically has an OBP low enough to justify the base-advancement-for-out exchange, bunt. But Aaron Miles is a major-league hitter, albeit replacement level, who as recently as the weekend was even a designated hitter! At least take a strike, for Pete’s sake.
• As we noted, neither runner scored. That was mostly due to Winn getting tagged out at home trying to advance on a Willis pitch to the backstop. Combined with Holliday’s gaffe, it meant that two of the team’s 24 outs were made unnecessarily on the bases. That kind of sloppiness may not matter in an eight-nil (that’s for you, World-Cup fans!) regular-season game, but come October, the team will need every out.
• The Cardinals’ 2-3-4 hitters reached base in 12 of 15 plate appearances. Talk about avoiding outs and creating runs.
• The normally surehanded Yadier Molina let a ball past him in the seventh, allowing Cole Gillespie to advance to second. The scorer ruled it a wild pitch, though, like in the eighth inning of Monday’s game (during Haren’s at-bat), we felt it should’ve been a passed ball. Molina probably won’t have any competition for Gold Glove, but come the end of the year, mentally add a couple PBs to his total.
• The bullpen’s Mexican Connection — Dennys Reyes and Fernando Salas –struck out two and walked none of the eight batters they collectively faced to take care of business in the final 2 2/3 innings of the game.

Let’s get this out of the way now: We’re a big fan of Dan Haren and have perhaps an unhealthy, lingering resentment of the trade that dispatched him from St. Louis. He’s one of our favorite pitchers in the game today and we were secretly cheering for him last night

So the Cardinals incredible ninth-inning win against Haren’s Diamondbacks in the first game of their series was perhaps the best-possible outcome for this writer. Perhaps also the win makes it easier for Cardinal fans to appreciate how well the guy pitched. If we were ever to make a case for a starting pitcher deserving a win — and make no mistake, we never will — it was Haren Monday night.

Against a pretty tough Cardinal lineup, Haren not only tossed a gutsy 59-FIGS game, but he hit a home run, nearly completed the game and came up big when occasion demanded. In short, it was Dan Haren against the Cardinals. His was a performance that Christy Mathewson, who wrote how to "pitch in a pinch," would’ve appreciated. A couple of at-bats illustrate how masterfully Haren handled the Cardinals’ top hitters.

In the fourth inning, Haren faced Colby Rasmus with the based empty and one out. Rasmus drew a quick 2-0 count on balls outside. Haren then, probably knowing that Rasmus was looking to swing, swerved a pitch just low and inside enough that Rasmus couldn’t handle it. Having gotten a nibble from his fish, Haren came high-and-tight, inducing a foul ball to even the count. Haren then went too far up the ladder on pitch five. With the full count, Rasmus was temporarily off the hook. Remembering where his big fish had bit before, Haren zinged another low and inside but that Rasmus just missed on. Knowing that he made it too fine, Haren came farther inside; another foul. Again, Haren went up the ladder, but it stayed over the plate. He got lucky and Rasmus fouled it back. Thus, with his hook sunk into his catch, Haren reeled Rasmus in with a wicked curveball down and in.

But Haren saved his best for last. With the outcome in the balance, the first three Cardinal batters in the eighth reached on singles to bring up Albert Pujols, and Haren looked like he didn’t have anything left in the tank. On a 1-0 count, he sneaked a fastball down the middle that Pujols just watched. He took something off his next fastball, and Pujols fouled it off. Now in command, he went back outside, then jammed Pujols again with a fastball under the hands, which Pujols barely fouled off. Having thrown all fastballs, Haren then unveiled a curveball over the inside half that froze the great Pujols. He went on to strike out Holliday and retire Rasmus on a fly. That was some major-league pitching, folks.

Watching the Cardinals nick Haren for a couple of runs in the first, one of which scored on a wild pitch that catcher Miguel Montero misplayed, we couldn’t help but wonder how much more effective Haren would be if he had the likes of Yadier Molina backstopping him. With a ham-handed catcher like Montero, Haren’s repertoire is effectively stunted. With Molina, he would have confidence in breaking pitches in the dirt. Which leads us to a final point about Haren’s performance. With Haren attempting to finish the game in the ninth, Cardinal manager Tony La Russa drew an ejection for arguing balls and strikes. TLR prolonged his feigned outrage on the field, interrupting Haren’s flow and requiring the Diamondback hurler to take a few warmup pitches while he waited. It was fine as gamesmanship goes, but it was a bush-league move for a manager who would’ve been apoplectic had an opponent pulled the same stunt.

Other notes:

• It was a tough last half inning to score: Schumaker got an RBI, but no earnie for Haren because the runner who scored would’ve been only on second base without the previous error.
• Two pitchers scored to win it for the Cardinals (Garcia pinch running, Wainwright reached after PH sac bunt).
• Haren and Carpenter engaged in their own bit of gamesmanship in the second inning. Carpenter came to the plate and struck up a conversation with the umpire. Not to be outdone, Haren returned the favor by stepping off and making Carpenter wait a few seconds. Fun to see a couple of pitching heavyweights working not only the physical but the mental advatange against each other.
• Was Aaron Heiman really the best option against lefty Skip Schumaker in the ninth inning? Do the Diamondbacks not have any LOOGys?
• Four of the Cardinals’ first five hits were on first pitches. Haren adjusted, throwing a few more balls on first pitches. Even still, Haren threw an impressive 71% of his pitches for strikes (compare with Carp’s 58%).
• If the Diamonbacks have any self-respect, they’ll avenge TLR’s antics. Dontrelle Willis is slated to start for the D-backs Tuesday, so we suppose they’ll at least have plausible deniability if he hits a few guys.

It’s almost July, so that means it’s finally time to pick some all-stars (regardless of when MLB actually opens voting). In conjunction with the Baseball Bloggers Alliance’s All-Star vote, here are our picks for the National League, which we confess were difficult and left us with a greater sense of ambiguity than usual. A note on our method: Rather than pick individuals in a vacccuum, we selected players in the context of a real team and lineup that will give the senior circuit the best chance to beat the upstart AL. For example, none of the top-three best-hitting outfielders plays centerfield, so we included that specific position in our thinking, even though the All-Star ballot doesn’t distinguish between outfield positions.

Catcher: Brian McCann
Yes, defense matters. But, with McCann boasting a .355 wOBA and Yadier Molina only .289, it doesn’t matter that much. Yadier has been the victim of some bad luck, so factoring in some second-half regression, he could be the end-of-the-year All-Star. No, that doesn’t exist, but it’s some consolation, isn’t it?

First base: Adrian Gonzalez
One first baseman in the NL stands above the rest in an ability to reach base, power and fielding, and for the first time in several years, it’s not Albert Pujols. Gonzalez leads all senior-circuit batters in WAR and is third in wOBA. Even Cardinal fans should be able to acknowledge that he’s earned it. (Joey Votto, the league leader in wOBA, is a close second.)

Second base: Chase Utley
Utley is in a class by himself, despite strong first-half showings by Martin Prado and Kelly Johnson.

Third base: David Wright
Of the NL’s big three third basemen — Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Scott Rolen, Wright has the best overall game so far in 2010. Zimmerman, tied with him in WAR, is a defensible pick.

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo tops the league’s shortstops in both WAR and wOBA — it’s too bad that he’s out with a broken wrist. For replacement, we’ll hold our nose and vote for Hanley Ramirez.

Outfield: Matt Holliday
Pop quiz (especially for you Cardinal fans): Who leads National League outfielders in WAR? If you guessed Holliday, you know our pick. Which leads us to wonder: Has an all-star ever been booed more by his hometown fans, not to mention the putative “best fans in baseball”?

Outfield: Andre Ethier
The Dodgers’ rightfielder leads all NL outfielders and is second in the league with a .412 wOBA. Other outfielders have better overall WAR because of their superior fielding, but because the All-Star Game features pitchers who yield relatively fewer balls in play, we value defense less than for the regular season.

Outfield: Colby Rasmus
As with Ethier, we picked Rasmus because he’s the best hitter among NL center fielders. Marlon Byrd and Andres Torres deserve consideration, too, based on their defensive talents. And Andrew McCutchen is a suitable choice, though his fielding is about as subpar as Rasmus’s.

Several compelling pitching matchups dotted the MLB slate Tuesday night, including the battle of lefties in Toronto, Jaime Garcia and Brett Cecil. Other noteworthy pairings: Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander vs. Jon Niese, Andy Pettitte vs. Dan Haren. Here’s how the matchups ranked by average Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP) of the two starters:

So how did the games actually turn out? We’ll use our method for determining pitching duels (rank by the lower of the two pitchers’ FIGS):

The Lincecum-Oswalt billing was as advertised. As for the Cardinals’ 9-4 win over the Blue Jays, the Garcia-Cecil tilt was one of the lamest duels of the evening. But El Gato did his part, with a 64 FIGS — the third-best individual performance Tuesday night:

The Wednesday contest in Toronto also figures to have a pitching duel, as Chris Carpenter and Ricky Romero toe the slab. We’re guessing, though, that Cardinal fans would just as soon see a result like Tuesday than have a pitching duel.

Mike Shannon interviewed Blue Jays’ broadcaster and former manager Buck Martinez before tonight’s series opener in Toronto. Martinez noted the Jays’ penchant for home runs this season, enabled by their approach of sitting on fastballs. Indeed, the Jays go up hacking and have hit 25 first-pitch home runs so far (by comparison, the Cardinals have hit 14). The Jays are slugging .653 on the first pitch (Cardinals: .517). No question, the Jays are going up looking to swing.

Martinez suggested that to counter his team’s tendency to swing — and swing hard — on the first pitch the Cardinals’ pitchers should start with offspeed pitches. Let’s look at the first-pitch profile of tonight’s starter, Jaime Garcia:

That first-pitch fastball percentage is similar to but higher than that of both Chris Carpenter (56%) and Adam Wainwright (50%), who pitch later in the series. Both of those guys loves to throw first-pitch curves (Carp: 24%; Waino: 22%). Why doesn’t Garcia throw his curveball more to start batters out? Perhaps it’s because it’s relatively not as successful a pitch for him — let’s see his pitch-runs above average for each pitch type:

While all of his pitches are above average so far this season, you can see why Garcia prefers his fastball and cutter — they’re his best pitches. So we’ll see what he does with the Jays’ boppers. It may be worth it to toss in a first-pitch curveball on occasion to keep them honest.