Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Around the horn: Offense in perspective

Is the Cardinal offense worse than it was last year? Judging by Bernie Miklasz’s lament that the team needs to "fix the dang offense," you might think so. But check out the numbers:

  • 2009: .325 wOBA, 8th place in NL
  • 2010: .325 wOBA, 7th place in NL

Certainly, the offense is something less than the pride of the NL, but the same offense was good enough to win the division last year. And with two of their biggest producers having spent significant time on the DL — David Freese and Ryan Ludwick — criticism is a bit unwarranted.

Whereas Miklasz feels that "the most glaring weakness with the 2010 Cardinals is their dull offense," the worst component, by league rank, anyway, is the bullpen, which is third-worst in xFIP. So is the effort to strengthen the starting pitching misguided? After all, the starting pitchers lead the league in xFIP. But look a little deeper, and you’ll see that the Cardinal starters are only fifth in the league in innings pitched per start, at around six. so while the innings that they do pitch are high quality, the lack of quantity exerts additional pressure on the pen, which, perhaps combined with some mismanagement, may contribute to the pen’s lackluster performance. So it’s still reasonable to figure that improving the rotation will improve the team’s true weakness, the bullpen.

Wither Westbrook?
Jayson Stark reported Friday that the Cardinals "have made Cleveland Indians pitcher Jake Westbrook their No. 1 target leading into the trade deadline." After missing out on seemingly doable deals for Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt, the Cardinals are apparently "going in a different direction." In our opinion, the club needs to be careful not to overpay for a far inferior pitcher in order to not come away emptyhanded at the trade deadline. If the team wasn’t willing to pay for top talent, it needs to resist the temptation to join the fray after they’ve missed the boat. Better to wait for the next boat — as in the winter — than to do something rash as a reaction to a market they misread.

Look at me, I can be centerfield
Tony La Russa has lately given Colby Rasmus more time on the pine than on the turf. The opening-day centerfielder has started only one of the last five games, prompting Derrick Goold to ask whether Jon Jay, who has gotten the nod over Rasmus, is the better bet. It’s true that Jay has been hot since his recall. But this is a small-sample-size alert if ever there was one. Jay boasts a heady .435 wOBA, better than Rasmus’s .368, but has about a third as many plate appearances (122 to 342). To his credit, Jay has exhibited some decent plate discipline, bettering Rasmus in contact rate and swing rate. All the same, Jay has also benefited from a slightly higher platoon advantage, facing righties 82% of the time (Rasmus: 76%). That means that Rasmus has had 60 more plate appearances against lefties, no small disadvantage. The more apt question might instead be “Jay or Ludwick?”

Fishpower beats deerpower
Carp out to continue dominance of Bucs — MLB headline

Come on, Big Z isn’t that fat
Howry’s release makes room for Zambrano — ESPN headline

He’d like his money back
Phils’ Moyer hopes to return this season — ESPN headline

Takes wrist, ball and goes home
Brewers’ Hart leaves with injured wrist — ESPN headline

Special edition of "The Bachelor"
Capps happy for opportunity with contending Twins — AP headline

Vincent Van Gold chain
Tonight is Vince Coleman Bobblehead night at Busch Stadium. Coleman himself was on-hand to provide the pregame action, being interviewed on the field. We espied him in the press lobby, and, though he appears to have added some girth, his look remains relatively unchanged from his playing days. That is, he sported a v-neck t-shirt which nattily complemented his ubiquitous gold chain. It’s reassuring to know that in this world of change, some things remain as they were in 1985.

One Response to “Around the horn: Offense in perspective”

  1. Welcome: Post-Trade Deadline thoughts | Outside the Clubhouse Says:

    [...] 1, Cardinals 9: This weekend sure solidified the idea that the Cardinals’ offense isn’t the team’s biggest issue.. Even if all this damage came against the [...]

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