Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Cardinals more lucky than good Friday night

Sometimes, the old saying goes, it’s better to be lucky than good. After enduring a tough-luck loss Thursday night, such was the case Friday, when the Cardinals beat the Nationals 4-2, despite the Nationals outhitting the Cardinals 12-7.

So did the Cardinals get a bit lucky? Perhaps. Consider that in addition to the hits advantage, the Nationals also enjoyed six walks, two doubles, a triple and a home run — and still managed only two runs. In terms of an opponent’s ineptitude at converting runs — which one could measure by the difference between runs created and runs scored — the Cardinals witnessed a season-worst. Here are the "top" 10 on the year:

Rk Date Tm PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB RC R Diff
1 8/27 WSN 43 37 12 2 1 1 19 6 8.0 2 6.0
2 7/22 PHI 44 42 12 3 0 1 18 2 5.7 2 3.7
3 6/11 ARI 45 37 10 4 0 0 14 8 5.6 2 3.6
4 6/8 LAD 34 31 9 4 0 0 13 2 4.3 1 3.3
4 6/20 OAK 37 33 11 3 0 1 17 2 6.3 3 3.3
4 5/19 FLA 44 38 12 3 0 2 21 5 8.3 5 3.3
7 4/25 SFG 35 34 9 3 0 0 12 0 3.2 0 3.2
8 7/16 LAD 43 39 13 3 1 0 18 3 6.9 4 2.9
9 8/20 SFG 45 40 13 3 0 2 22 5 8.8 6 2.8
10 8/1 PIT 37 35 10 0 1 0 12 1 3.7 1 2.7

It’s not even close. With their 19 total bases (the Cardinals hit two home runs yet had only 13 TBs), the Nationals created eight runs but scored only two, a difference of six runs that disappeared into the ether. The reason? Strikeouts (nine), a double play, a caught stealing and other unproductive outs. The Cardinals, on the other hand, created only 3.1 runs but scored four, aided by errors.

So the next time the Cardinals lose a game they seemingly should’ve won, it’s helpful to remember that they’re occasionally the beneficiaries of fortune, too.

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