UCB Roundtable: Sign Westbrook, other free agents?
Wednesday, October 20th, 2010[Monday's United Cardinal Bloggers postseason roundtable question came from Erik Manning of Play a Hard Nine.]
Time to play a little armchair GM, so forgive me if I roll two questions into one. It’s looking like John Mozeliak is working hard to re-sign Jake Westbrook, rounding out the pitching rotation. What would the right money be for re-signing Westbrook, and what other free agents are on your radar that you think Mo should pursue this offseason?
We’re torn on the Westbrook offer. On one hand, he was the only positive acquisition that Mozeliak made during the season and figures to solidify the staff in 2011. But lest we be inordinately swayed by recent performance, we should consider the bigger picture. Westbrook went on the DL three times after signing his last contract in 2007 and missed an entire season as recently as 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Based on his 2010 performance, he has probably earned a two-year, $16 million contract, but it shouldn’t be with the Cardinals, from whom we’d only be comfortable seeing a less-costly (say, $7 million) one-year deal. It’s probably a case in which the Cardinals should amicably tell Westbrook that while they’ve love to have him return, he should optimize his value elsewhere. As the following graph shows, Westbrook appears to have passed the break-even point in his career for value:
As for others, we’re not sure why Mo would get hung up on the concept of "a couple of guys who can hit 15 to 20 homers," since it’s such a one-dimensional way to think about a player. We’d much rather hear him talking about offense generally, or, if he’s going to cite one stat, talk about the need to get on base. To that end, Orlando Hudson would be a positive addition, though at this point in his career, he doesn’t offer that much more offense than Schumaker should (his glove, of course is another story) — after all, the beleaguered Cardinal second baseman is younger and has a higher lifetime OBP than O-Dawg. Dan Uggla is an appealing choice, with his career .359 wOBA, but we fear that he, beginning his age-31 season next year, would be a classic example of paying for the best years that a free agent has already had with another team. Shorter-term, if Mozeliak wants someone who can both hit for power and reach base, we like Mark Tomasik’s suggestion of Brad Hawpe, whose off-year was partially explained by a 29-point drop in his BABIP. That would of course render Jon Jay superfluous, at least for 2011. And that brings up the real dilemma that Mozeliak faces in this winter’s free-agent market, which appears to offer only marginal or too-costly upgrades at the Cardinals’ positions of need and useful players at positions where the Cardinals already have capable players. In addition to Schumaker and Jay, David Freese’s uncertain health puts them in a situation in which they either bank on Freese returning or essentially carry two quality third basemen. But the relative cost savings of those three players is needed in order to keep payroll flexible to secure their biggest star, to enable a big trade and of course to pay their manager, who will likely be the highest-paid skipper in the game next year. Outside of trades, Mozeliak may be stuck with a seemingly intractable roster for 2011. Then again, a lot of GMs would be happy to be “stuck” with such a group.

