Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

With Lohse, time is right for Cardinals to try four-man rotation

John Mozeliak notes that the Cardinals “still think we have some holes.” One is right field, stomach and Carlos Beltran would fill it well.

Despite currently polling at Fungoes as the Cardinals

11 Responses to “With Lohse, time is right for Cardinals to try four-man rotation”

  1. WowUpeopleRstupid Says:

    I am glad you people don’t run the team. You would blow arms quicker than Dusty Baker. It is amazing how you think everything can be boiled down to a mathematical formula. Unfortunately, more and more people who really don’t understand baseball are ascribing to your school of thought because it makes sense on paper. Yet, like communism, that is all that your theoretical garbage will achieve.

  2. dave Says:

    Is there any trend in worse pitching ath the end of a season? (ie, does ERA go up in last three vs first three?)

    Separately, surprised a bit to see you using ERA for this. Fip not a good match?

  3. stimpy Says:

    Wow! That’s a lot of work to come up with stats and projections for a concept that is preposterous.

  4. Pip Says:

    Thanks for thoughtful comment, WowUpeopleRstupid. While I’m injured that you would liken me to a communist (at least you didn’t call me a Nazi!), I’m glad you bring up the comparison. Communism is a theory that fails to account for the nature of man — that is to say, it works in theory but not in real life. On the other hand, the four-man rotation has actually been tried and used to great effect. In fact, the five-man rotation is a relatively new development in the history of baseball. So the four-man rotation is actually more proven in reality than the five-man.

    I’m also glad you bring up Dusty Baker, since he’s a great example of how pitchers can get burned out using a five-man rotation.

  5. Pip Says:


    Why is it so preposterous? I take it you aren’t familiar with baseball prior to the 1990s?

  6. Pip Says:


    Good question — I’m not sure, but I can research it. What do you refer to in your example — the first three of what?

    I used ERA only because that was what the projections are given in.

  7. Weekend Round-Up – 2/20/2011 | Fire Brand of the American League Says:

    […] of Fungoes makes a convincing argument that the Cardinals should try a four man rotation this […]

  8. WowUpeopleRstupid Says:

    Baseball history is just that, History. All of your theories and substantial backing is based around an assumption that is no longer in line with the societal development of the game. In the days of old, the arm was not as over-worked as it is today. The development of the curveball and the early age (not to mention the amount of pitches) at which kids start these days has significantly altered the stress placed on the human arm. While the four-man may have worked in the past, the current development of young pitchers make it irrelevant and even detrimental. Are you too removed from the actual practice to realize these implications? I just fear that people listen to your theories without scrutiny.

  9. Tweets that mention Fungoes » Blog Archive » With Lohse, time is right for Cardinals to try four-man rotatio -- Says:

    […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by St. Louis Cardinals, fungoes and Phil Schless, utdcardbloggers. utdcardbloggers said: New @fungoes: With Lohse, time is right for Cardinals to try four-man rotatio #stlcards […]

  10. dave Says:

    Last 3 starts of a season vs. 1st 3 (or maybe vs season average) ERA.

  11. Pip Says:


    Here’s what I found by using MLB ERAs in games started for the last 10 years comparing March-April (roughly first 3-4 starts per pitcher) to September-October. A lot of noise in there, but it gives some idea:

    MLB, GS


    2001 4.75 4.31
    2002 4.31 4.35
    2003 4.45 4.38
    2004 4.77 4.52
    2005 4.33 4.24
    2006 4.78 4.47
    2007 4.30 4.88
    2008 4.28 4.53
    2009 4.55 4.33
    2010 4.29 4.06
    AVG 4.48 4.41

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