Cardinals need to face reality
It is hard for you to kick against the goads. — Acts 26:14
Bernie Miklasz wrote recently that there’s no reason to give up on the Cardinals. The optimist in us is inclined to agree. The realist, however, can’t. The Cardinals and their fans can kick against the goads all they want, but a greater power — reality — will ultimately win, and the sooner they admit it, the better.
After the splash of ice water to the face of the Albert Pujols "negotiations" and the punch to the gut of Adam Wainwright’s season-ending injury, we’ve awakened to the harsh reality of the Cardinals’ world, ca. spring 2011. So we’ll go ahead and say it: The Cardinals should begin a modest rebuilding mode.
Yes, the Cardinals still have a reasonable chance to win the division and may even still be favorites. But they now could be considered to be in a "stastistical tie" with their main competitors, which means that some amount of "luck" can have an impact. But "luck" can also work in their favor: the Cardinals may be able to have their cake and eat it, too. After all, with a little bit of good fortune, rebuilding and winning the division aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive. But the point is that the clear goal of going "all in" for 2011 has to change, because a significant plank on which that plan was made is now gone.
It’s a shame that they’ve lost Wainwright, and normally a team is bigger than one player, but in this case, reality needs to dictate the team’s decisions. Reality — in the form of either a painfully expensive Pujols contract or a farewell party at the end of the season, and now a lost ace — has set up camp on their doorstep; they can either open the door and gird themselves as they step out into it, or they can slam the door shut and put their fingers in their ears and sing "la la la."
Facing that reality means changing plans. The Cardinals perennially contend for the playoffs — when was the last time they began a season not intending to vie for the division? — but they probably need to take a year off and catch their breath. Their farm system is weak, their 2011 chances are dimmer (though to be sure, not erased entirely) and, if they are honest with themselves, Pujols will be out of their league come November. The team wasn’t exactly a bunch of Lou Gehrigs even before the Wainwright injury — Carpenter, Berkman, Freese and Lohse, for example — and Wainwright’s surgery should clarify that reality and push them to retool for a post-Pujols future.
What does that mean? A few options:
- Trade Chris Carpenter: Face it — the team got lucky with Carpenter staying healthy in 2010. Smart money is not on him avoiding a DL stint or two again, and he’s not long for the team after this season, anyway. If the team declines his 2012 option, they won’t be eligible for compensatory picks, anyway, so they might as well cash in via trade this season before he, too, gets hurt.
- Spend money in the draft: Kenny Williams noted that he could do a lot with $30 million, and so can the Cardinals. One thing is to spend money to make sure that they draft and sign the best possible players in June. Money shouldn’t be an obstacle in the draft, either this year or next, when they’ll have a couple extra picks via Pujols’s departure.
- Cut the old, promote the young: Rather than continue La Russa’s playoff-looking "veterans over rookies" approach, the Cardinals need to make decisions in spring training that reflect a consideration beyond 2011. That means that Daniel Descalso needs make the team over Ramon Vazquez and also-rans like Ian Snell and Miguel Batista get released. Give the youth some experience to prepare them for 2012.
- Free former prospects to play regularly: Once-and-possibly-still-promising farmhands like Bryan Anderson and Allen Craig are at the tipping point. The Cardinals need to make opportunities for them to see meaningful major-league action. The only place their trade value can go is up.
It’s hard to write and believe, especially after such a promising group for 2011. But that’s reality, and sometimes it’s painful. The world has changed for the Cardinals. It’s time they acknowledge it and change, too.
March 1st, 2011 at 10:57 am
Well put. I would actually advocate young over old regardless of the stage of rebuilding. Much better to take flyer on the Walters and Ottovinos of the world than the Snells and Batistas. Cheaper, too (probably).
Great post.
March 1st, 2011 at 6:04 pm
I couldn’t disagree with you more. Good thing you were never on any of my high school teams you quitter. There is enough talent and enough coaching on this team to make an inspiring run. Perhaps your fears maybe correct, but I doubt it. No way I go this far before July.
I don’t get the Brian Anderson comment. What in the world is to be gained by putting a still young and learning talent wasting on the bench as a backup to the most durable catcher in MLB? Playing time is what he needs, not only to further his career, but also give him exposure to scouts as possible trade bait. Wasting on the bench is for washed up veterans.
March 6th, 2011 at 9:26 am
[...] the Cardinals need to face reality? Pip of Fungoes certainly thinks so, and he lays out some potential options for the [...]
March 6th, 2011 at 8:47 pm
I think you are right, but this team is perhaps our “last shot with Albert” so I doubt it happens. I think you point out a more troubling management problem in that the Cardinals have been very reluctant to trade high on talent.
March 7th, 2011 at 7:04 pm
I’d say Carp’s future depends on where the team is at in, say, late July. If they’re leading the division, he stays. If they’re close to the division lead, and on top of the wild card, he likely stays.
Below that? The further away from the top, the more likely it is he goes.