Pujols’s opposite-field problem
In the Cardinals’ 6-4 win over the Cubs Tuesday, Albert Pujols did something he hasn’t done all season: Knock two hits to the opposite field.
So what’s the big deal? Well, regardless of which team Albert Pujols plays for next year — and there’s no shortage of shameless speculators — his performance this year is going to play a big part in his contract. We’ve noted in the past that the Cardinal superstar is already in decline, and, though the 2011 campaign is less than a third underway, he is continuing a trend that has been going on for a couple of years, which is lessening potency hitting to right field.
Granted, Pujols is so talented that he could be forced to hit into one field, like playground Indian Ball, and still be one of the best hitters in the game. But one of the strengths of his game has always been an ability to use all fields, and so his recent decline matters. Here’s Pujols’s annual wOBA by field location since 2002:
As you can see, he is declining in all three locations, but the decline is more pronounced to right field and center field. And if we look deeper inside those opposite-field numbers, we see that almost all of the downturn in his overall opposite-field prowess (as measured by wOBA) is due to lack of power, as his OBP has been relatively consistent:
We’re not sure what the decline portends for Pujols, if anything. He could indeed continue to produce at such high levels as a more-strictly pull hitter that he will still be among the league’s best batsmen. But if his opposite-field decline is real, then pitchers may start to exploit his relative weakness, as they may already have. Pujols is famous for his ability to adjust, so it wouldn’t necessarily spell doom. His opposite-field power is something to keep an eye on as the year progresses and the contract talk rears its head again.
May 15th, 2011 at 7:31 am
[...] Fungoes » Blog Archive » Pujols's opposite-field problem [...]
May 15th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Seems to be pulling more ground balls too. I wonder if we’ll see a shift against him soon.
May 16th, 2011 at 8:02 am
This was obviously a problem last year. It doesn’t appear that he can’t hit to right but more so that he doesn’t want to. Sliders low and away he tries to pull and ends up in a lot of pop ups or slow grounders. It looks like he tries to yack everything now.
May 29th, 2011 at 9:04 am
Three random thoughts on this:
1) We’re now 53 games into the season and Pujols is slugging .403. Ouch.
2) This is Frank Thomas 1998 all over again. Thomas was a machine-like .320/.450/.600 in his first 8 seasons, then suddenly dropped to .265/.381/.480 at age 30.
3) Regardless, I wonder if people will start to question Pujols’ age again…
May 31st, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Thanks for the thoughts, Jacob.
1. Yeah, and he has a .150 ISO (previous career low is .241 in 2007). Walk rate is way down, too.
2. Interesting comp. Thomas never returned to his 20s dominance, but he was still putting up big numbers through age 39. He just was not on the field as much. Do you see Pujols as losing skill or playing time? Or both?
3. Probably, but there’s no need to — very few players improve after 30, and while Pujols may decline more slowly than most players, he is still going to decline. That he should start slowing down is unsurprising.