Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for June, 2011

Our 2011 All-Star ballot

Tuesday, June 28th, 2011

Invoking the principle of the last responsible moment — “polls” close this Thursday — we present our 2011 All-Star ballot:

Po National American
C Brian McCann Carlos Santana
1B Prince Fielder Adrian Gonzalez
2B Rickie Weeks Dustin Pedroia
SS Jose Reyes Alexei Ramirez
3B Chase Headley Kevin Youkilis
OF Ryan Braun Ben Zobrist
OF Matt Kemp Curtis Granderson
OF Lance Berkman Jose Bautista

Some notes:

  • As much as it hurt to vote for two Brewers, but Fielder and Weeks were both such clear choices that it was difficult not to (Fielder leads Joey Votto in WAR, 3.8-3.5, and Weeks leads Danny Espinosa, 3.6-3.1).
  • With all due respect to Chase Headley, you know it’s a down year for NL third basemen when he leads at the position with 137 wRC+. Where have you gone, Mike Schmidt?
  • For outfielders, we preferred total run production (as represented by wRC+) to defense and positional skill (as represented by WAR). In the NL, those three are the top three outfielders in the league in wRC+, and it just so happens that they play LF, CF and RF.
  • True, Alex Avila is having the best half-season at AL catcher, but we still consider Carlos Santana the best in the league, especially given his unfortunate .249 BABIP.
  • No, we don’t vote for designated hitters. What, this surprises you?

Add Batista to the long list of midseason cuts

Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

Another Dave Duncan reclamation project ended Wednesday when the Cardinals released veteran Miguel Batista. The 40-year-old formerly notorious in St. Louis for scrapping with Tino Martinez played a perhaps greater-than-expected role in the team’s bullpen until his release, getting the most work of any Cardinal reliever (137 batters faced).

The Cardinals’ past is littered with pitchers that they have discarded mid-season. Yet Batista, who was third-worst on the club with a 5.59 xFIP, ranks best in the obscure measure of usage per day under contract. Cardinals pitchers released in mid-season by Games/Day under contract:

Pitcher T Acquired Released Days Games Games/Day
Miguel Batista R 1/14/11 6/22/11 159 26 0.16
Gabe White L 4/26/05 6/12/05 47 6 0.13
Sidney Ponson R 12/21/05 7/7/06 198 14 0.07
Bill Pulsipher L 2/21/05 9/6/05 197 5 0.03
Kevin Jarvis R 2/19/05 9/2/05 195 4 0.02
Nerio Rodriguez R 1/18/05 5/6/05 108 2 0.02
Shawn Sedlacek R 4/17/05 5/18/05 31 0 0.00
Toby Borland R 11/16/04 5/29/05 194 0 0.00
Vladimir Nunez R 5/23/05 7/2/05 40 0 0.00
Anthony Ferrari L 5/6/05 7/20/05 75 0 0.00
Chris Mears R 7/1/05 7/24/05 23 0 0.00
Armando Almanza L 8/4/05 9/6/05 33 0 0.00
Brad Voyles R 11/23/05 5/25/06 183 0 0.00
John Riedling R 12/21/05 6/23/06 184 0 0.00
Will Cunnane R 5/10/06 6/26/06 47 0 0.00
Tomo Ohka R 6/19/07 7/4/07 15 0 0.00
Matt Ginter R 2/12/07 8/17/07 186 0 0.00
Matt Clement R 1/3/08 8/2/08 212 0 0.00
Rich Hill L 1/26/10 6/30/10 155 0 0.00
Renyel Pinto L 7/2/10 8/21/10 50 0 0.00
NatE. Robertson L 8/2/10 8/23/10 21 0 0.00
Ian Snell R 1/14/11 4/11/11 87 0 0.00

Whatever his shortcomings this season — and to be clear, he had a few — let it not be said that Batista didn’t answer the bell when it rang.

In contrast, the ash heap of Cardinal history sadly includes many ill-fated signings of pitchers who never even made it to the Mound City’s mound.  In fact, eight of the last 21 midseason releasees have ended their careers with the Cardinals. That is, they never signed another contract after the Cardinals released them. It’s still too early to tell for Batista, of course, but given that he’s at least healthy, the smart money is on him returning to a major-league bullpen. Who knows, maybe we’ll even see him pitch against the Cardinals again. Let’s just hope he doesn’t plunk any of our players this time.

Cardinal bullpen: Relievers gone wild

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

In Tuesday night’s bullpen implosion to end all bullpen implosions, the emotional if not actual tipping point came when Jason Motte, summoned contra platoon-advantage wisdom, hit Ryan Howard and Placido Polanco to surrender the Cardinals’ lead. The rest of the eighth inning isn’t worth revisiting.

It wasn’t the first time that a Cardinal reliever had begun a meltdown by plunking a batter. In fact, rather than exhibiting self-control under stress, the Cardinal bullpen has made a bad habit of wildness. They’re so wild, they make Mitch Williams look like Coolhand Luke. If we consider their rate of both wild pitches and hit-by-pitches, they are the worst in the National League:

Rk Team PA HBP WP HBP+WP/PA
1 STL 933 19 14 3.5%
2 MIL 941 9 17 2.8%
3 PIT 943 7 15 2.3%
4 NYM 908 9 11 2.2%
5 WSN 896 9 10 2.1%
6 ARI 899 12 7 2.1%
7 CHC 1057 15 7 2.1%
8 ATL 990 10 9 1.9%
9 LAD 908 7 10 1.9%
10 SDP 980 9 9 1.8%
11 CIN 1013 8 10 1.8%
12 PHI 837 10 4 1.7%
13 FLA 976 9 7 1.6%
14 HOU 944 10 4 1.5%
15 SFG 888 6 5 1.2%
16 COL 899 1 7 0.9%

They’re worst by an unhealthy margin, too. But lest you counter that the wildness is somehow catcher or ballpark related, consider that the Cardinals starters have a much lower rate of 1.3%. This is pretty clearly a bullpen problem.

And as bad at the pen is in ERA (14th in the NL) and xFIP (last), they’re probably even worse, given that those numbers don’t directly include the wildness stats.

One of the many reasons why Bruce Sutter and Mariano Rivera were so successful was control: Each had a 1.2% rate of wildness. The Cardinal bullpen needs to learn how to douse the flames of rallies like the firemen of old used to, rather than adding their own fuel to the fire in the form of wild pitches and beanings. Not everyone can be as great as Sutter and Rivera, but something a little more like league average would help.

Duffy’s dandy start, Schumaker’s 2nd-biggest game

Monday, June 20th, 2011

The way that Royals’ rookie Danny Duffy started Sunday’s game, the Cardinals were fortunate to escape with a win. That’s because Duffy, who struck out an incredible nine of the 18 batters he faced, pitched one of the most dominant starts of a game of all-time; since 1919, only nine other pitchers have struck out that many of the the first 18 batters in a game:

Rk Player Date Tm Opp IP BF SO
1 Nolan Ryan 7/27/86 HOU PHI 5 18 10
2 John Henry Johnson 6/19/79 TEX CAL 5 18 10
3 Jordan Zimmermann 8/31/10 WSN FLA 6 18 9
4 John Smoltz 8/23/09 STL SDP 5 18 9
5 Chad Billingsley 8/2/09 LAD ATL 5 18 9
6 Randy Johnson 5/15/07 ARI COL 6 18 9
7 John Smoltz 9/23/98 ATL FLA 5 17 9
8 Hideo Nomo 4/3/98 LAD CIN 4 18 9
9 Ron Guidry 7/27/86 NYY MIN 5 18 9

Other notes from Sunday’s 5-4 Cardinal win:

  • Although second baseman Pete Kozma threw wide to first base on Wilson Betemit’s sixth-inning groundball on which Albert Pujols injured his wrist, the injury was Pujols’s own fault. Pujols was not in good position to make the play — you might even say it was a demonstration of how not to play first base. First, he put his left leg on the base (as a righty, the correct trail leg is the right), with his toe on top of the bag, two positional no-nos. Then he reached to his left — into the baseline — and not toward the ball, which was why Betemit ran into him. It was a clean play by Betemit, who had the right to his bath path. It wasn’t the first time that Pujols has taken a non-standard approach, and honestly, it was only a matter of time before he got injured. What’s surprising is that it didn’t happen sooner.
  • Coming off the bench, Skip Schumaker knocked an RBI single and of course the walk-off home run for a total win-probability added of .573, making it the second-biggest game of his career. His previous season-high game WPA was .151, and his career-high game was .632 on 6/28/10 vs. Arizona.
  • As unappealing as Pujols’s stand-and-stare homerun trot was, we liked less that he didn’t join his teammates in the high-sock spirit. Even the unflamboyant Matt Holliday participated. Where’s the team spirit?
  • We heard something like this line from the KMOX post-game show: “Salas blew the save but got the win.” Dave Letterman used to have a bit called “Hal Gurnee’s Network Time Killers.” KMOX is apparently carrying on the tradition.

Tyler Greene likes to steal

Friday, June 17th, 2011

Tyler Greene likes to run. How much? To say that he has attempted to steal more often per opportunity than any of his Cardinal teammates this season is to understate the case: He tries to pilfer a bag nearly twice as often as his closest competitor:

Player SBO SB CS Att/Opp
Tyler Greene 47 8 0 17.0%
Jon Jay 76 5 2 9.2%
Yadier Molina 63 1 4 7.9%
Gerald Laird 15 0 1 6.7%
Allen Craig 61 4 0 6.6%
Ryan Theriot 114 4 3 6.1%
Albert Pujols 92 5 0 5.4%
Colby Rasmus 113 5 1 5.3%
Team Total 1049 35 17 5.0%
Daniel Descalso 71 2 1 4.2%
Lance Berkman 112 0 3 2.7%
Nick Punto 38 1 0 2.6%
Skip Schumaker 43 0 1 2.3%
Matt Holliday 98 0 1 1.0%
Bryan Augenstein 3 0 0 0.0%
Chris Carpenter 6 0 0 0.0%
Matt Carpenter 8 0 0 0.0%
Tony Cruz 11 0 0 0.0%
David Freese 37 0 0 0.0%
Jaime Garcia 5 0 0 0.0%
Mark Hamilton 5 0 0 0.0%
Pete Kozma 6 0 0 0.0%
Kyle Lohse 5 0 0 0.0%
Lance Lynn 2 0 0 0.0%
Kyle McClellan 11 0 0 0.0%
Jake Westbrook 7 0 0 0.0%

Not only does Greene lead the team, but he is among the league leaders in attempted-steal rate (min. 40 opportunities):

Rk Player Tm SBO SB CS SB% att/opp
1 Angel Pagan NYM 45 9 3 75% 26.7%
2 Will Venable SDP 49 11 2 85% 26.5%
3 Carlos Gomez MIL 62 15 1 94% 25.8%
4 Hanley Ramirez FLA 67 11 6 65% 25.4%
5 Ian Desmond WSN 89 18 3 86% 23.6%
6 Michael Bourn HOU 140 29 3 91% 22.9%
7 Jose Reyes NYM 122 22 5 81% 22.1%
8 Rick Ankiel WSN 41 7 2 78% 22.0%
9 Willie Bloomquist ARI 46 7 3 70% 21.7%
10 Matt Kemp LAD 96 16 3 84% 19.8%
11 Orlando Hudson SDP 51 10 0 100% 19.6%
12 Jose Tabata PIT 106 14 5 74% 17.9%
13 Drew Stubbs CIN 125 20 2 91% 17.6%
14 Tyler Greene STL 47 8 0 100% 17.0%
15 Ryan Braun MIL 120 16 4 80% 16.7%
16 Chris Young ARI 79 8 5 62% 16.5%
17 Jason Bartlett SDP 100 12 4 75% 16.0%
18 Justin Upton ARI 110 12 5 71% 15.5%
19 Jimmy Rollins PHI 100 14 1 93% 15.0%
20 Tony Gwynn LAD 47 5 2 71% 14.9%

Stolen-base attempt rate is a neutral stat: It’s neither good nor bad in and of itself. What matters is how successful you are when you do attempt. And clearly, with a 100% success rate, Greene has made the most of his opportunities. In fact, he has been one of the most effective basestealers in the league (by difference between SB/Opp and CS/Opp):

Rk Player Tm SBO SB CS SB% SB/Opp CS/Opp Diff
1 Carlos Gomez MIL 62 15 1 94% 24.2% 1.6% 22.6%
2 Orlando Hudson SDP 51 10 0 100% 19.6% 0.0% 19.6%
3 Michael Bourn HOU 140 29 3 91% 20.7% 2.1% 18.6%
4 Will Venable SDP 49 11 2 85% 22.4% 4.1% 18.4%
5 Tyler Greene STL 47 8 0 100% 17.0% 0.0% 17.0%
6 Ian Desmond WSN 89 18 3 86% 20.2% 3.4% 16.9%
7 Drew Stubbs CIN 125 20 2 91% 16.0% 1.6% 14.4%
8 Jose Reyes NYM 122 22 5 81% 18.0% 4.1% 13.9%
9 Matt Kemp LAD 96 16 3 84% 16.7% 3.1% 13.5%
10 Angel Pagan NYM 45 9 3 75% 20.0% 6.7% 13.3%

Given the limited contributions in other aspects of his game, we commend Greene for accentuating the positive, at least. And that’s putting it mildly. If not for his stolen bases, he would have no offensive game at all. With his stolen bases, he has generated positive numbers in RE24 and Win-Probability Added — nearly half of what he has generated via extra-base hits:

Event type RE24 WPA
Stolen bases 1.58 0.119
Extra-base hits 3.85 0.193
All non-SB -4.62 -0.999
Total -3.04 -0.880

It’s perhaps ironic that a player whom Tony La Russa and others once lauded for his power potential has defined his offense solely in terms of baserunning. But as long as he keeps stealing at 100%, we’re all for Greene running every chance he gets.