In announcing that the Cardinals had traded Colby Rasmus, John Mozeliak cited performance and production as reasons. Perhaps protesting too much, manager Tony La Russa even went so far as to say that “I’ve heard it said that if you don’t get along with the manager in St. Louis you can’t play. That’s ridiculous. If you get on Tony’s bad side you’re out of here. That’s wrong.”

It’s true that Rasmus experienced periods of low production in 2011. But he wasn’t the only Cardinal batter to slump. In fact, he didn’t even have the worst one — check out the 20 worst 10-game periods by OBP for qualifying Cardinal batters so far:

As you can see, Rasmus’s slumps were nothing compared to Ryan Theriot’s and Skip Schumaker’s. Factor in Jon Jay’s horrendous slide in April, in which he had nearly as bad an OBP as Rasmus at his worst but a much worst slugging percentage, and it’s clear that Rasmus wasn’t the only one who struggled for periods. Indeed, streaks — both good and bad — are part of the game. Just about any player, when the sample taken is small enough, is going to stink for several games at a time; the wise man looks not at cherry-picked periods of time but at the bigger picture.

And yet Rasmus was regularly singled out. Google Stltoday.com for “rasmus” and “slump” and you’ll find 207 references this season. Conduct the same search with “theriot” and you get 72. “Schumaker” yields 53, and “molina” 30. The same pattern is true with the Cardinals’s official MLB site: Molina: 45, Schumaker: 27, Theriot 118 — and Rasmus: 132. Why? It’s possible that Rasmus had become a media lightning rod because La Russa took special umbrage at him. It might also be that the media (and fans) have jumped aboard the bash-Rasmus bandwagon blowing their trumpets a little too loudly. And it could be — and probably is — a combination of both. In any case, it’s disappointing and a disservice not only to readers but to Rasmus himself. With the exception of Rasmus’s father imposing himself in the news, the Rasmus saga has been rather one-sided, with La Russa doing much of the agitating, aided of course by media outlets, not the least of which was his classless swipe during an infield KSDK report. For his part, Rasmus has generally been taciturn and composed, taking the high road, either because of a genuine dignity or innate shyness. Meanwhile, the real scufflers (and La Russa favorites) — Theriot and Schumaker — get a relative free pass, both from La Russa and the media, not to mention get to keep their jobs.

Once upon a time, a headstrong Cardinal manager grew tired of one of his star players not toeing the company line, occasionally taking hitting advice from his father and generally not playing baseball in the time-honored style that the manager demanded. The relationship had been rocky since the beginning, but with the team struggling to maintain its competitiveness, a particular weakness in its pitching staff became a convenient pretext for the manager to finally ship his star far, far away, for pennies on the dollar. No, this isn’t the tragic tale of the recently departed Colby Rasmus but of Keith Hernandez.

On June 15, 1983, when Herzog banished Hernandez to New York, the Cardinals were in first place — as they were when they traded Rasmus — with a one-game lead over the Expos. It was a seemingly needless trade, but Herzog and the Cardinals thought they needed pitching, and so they sold low on their Gold-Glove captain, struggling with a batting average (the metric of choice in those unenlightened days and still today for many — to wit: see the number of commentators citing Rasmus’s) in the .270s, for a relief pitcher with potential to start and a near-rookie pitcher. Sound familiar?

Ever since taking the helm of the Cardinals, Herzog had tried to trade Hernandez, who was — despite being captain (or was it a reason for it?) — his own man. Like Rasmus (and, it should be said, many other ballplayers over the years), he took hitting advice from his father, who knew his swing — as well as his head — intimately. Hernandez did things his own way — not the old-school way that Herzog required — resting his mind by doing crossword puzzles in the dugout while others took fielding practice. That display of independence, like Rasmus’s, finally was his ticket out of town for a manager too stubborn to brook any dissenters from his manifesto. Unlike many deals of veteran stars, who are accorded the courtesy of a trade to a contending team (see Carlos Beltran), Herzog’s trade of Hernandez was to the opposite end of the spectrum: The Mets, the Siberia of baseball. Today’s Siberia would have to include Toronto, a favorite gulag for victims of La Russa’s despotism (see Scott Rolen). Hernandez, of course, would have the last laugh as he helped resurrect the Mets to a championship and two division titles.

To be sure, the situation with Hernandez wasn’t totally analogous to that with Rasmus. In Hernandez, the Cardinals had an established veteran — 1979 MVP and captain of their 1982 World Championship club –  whereas Rasmus has yet to cross the chasm of stardom. And with Hernandez, a primary motivator for the trade was payroll consideration, which, if anything, is the direct opposite in the case of the cost-controlled Rasmus. But in trading Hernandez, the team opened up a five-WAR hole in the middle of its lineup at a position that it struggled to consistently fill for several years afterward. The lure of young hopeful David Green simply didn’t pan out and the team had to pay through the nose anyway to acquire Jack Clark. Jon Jay figures to be the team’s everyday centerfielder, but are 616 plate appearances enough to warrant so much trust?

The Hernandez trade was understandably ill received by fans, so the Cardinals did their best to win the public relations battle, which mainly focused on vilifying Hernandez as a drug user (which excuse, as Hernandez himself noted was disingenuous given that other players, including ace pitcher Joaquin Andujar, also used). In Rasmus’s case, the team — read: La Russa — struck preemptively to win or at least divide public sentiment. As a result, the Cardinals may have the edge among fans at this point. But after the season is long gone — and remember, those 1983 Cardinals eventually sank to fourth place and a losing record — and Rasmus in Toronto outperforms Jon Jay, don’t be surprised if TLR and company (including fans and media?) continue to smear Rasmus. May Rasmus make like Hernandez and enjoy glorious years ahead — with whomever he thinks can help him hit. As for the Cardinals and La Russa, they’ll find out at the end of this season the price of managerial intransigence. For the 1983 team, it was a fourth-place finish.

Joe Strauss carries the latest rumor about Colby Rasmus in today’s Post-Dispatch:

Publicly insistent that they are not seeking a destination for center fielder Colby Rasmus, the Cardinals have made the struggling 24-year-old talent available for the right deal with the Chicago White Sox, according to several sources familiar with the situation.

…

Negotiations with White Sox general manager Kenny Williams have accelerated in recent days, according to sources, with the Sox able to make available pending free agent pitcher Edwin Jackson or high-salary lefthanded reliever Matt Thornton.

Strauss is careful not to directly connect Rasmus with Jackson; indeed, it’s possible that the Cardinals could acquire Jackson (or Thornton, for that matter) without the carrot of Rasmus. Regardless, is Jackson a player that would help the Cardinals?

It’s true that the team could benefit from a solid starter. We’ve noted that Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are insufficient for the rotation’s back end during a stretch drive and possible playoff run. Jackson is a curious case: Perhaps due to his middling record (55-58) and mediocre ERA (4.53), he is often overlooked and has been with five teams in the last six years. But he is a surprisingly valuable pitcher, having improved his lot each year since becoming a regular starter.

And yet he’s still probably not as good as his 2011 xFIP indicates: ZiPS figures him at a 4.27 ERA/4.00 FIP the rest of the year. As far as the Cardinals are concerned, that’s somewhere in-between Lohse (4.42/3.78) and Westbrook (4.31/4.23).

It’s very discouraging to read that the Cardinals are considering trading Rasmus, evidently over a personality conflict (the latest victim in a long line of tyrannical Don Tony’s rub-outs). It is breathtakingly shortsighted to trade him for a centerpiece of a rental pitcher who doesn’t stand to help the team considerably over what they already have. Edwin Jackson may be worth a phone call from John Mozeliak, but even Mozeliak should have enough sense to hang up when the conversation involves Rasmus. If he is even going to have a hope of Albert Pujols returning, he needs to consider his lineup beyond 2011.

Kerry Wood in Busch?
In his Best fits by ballpark post, Ben Jedlovec suggests that Cub reliever Kerry Wood might work in Busch Stadium:

Relievers Kerry Wood and Leo Nunez, both fly-ball pitchers, would be good targets for St. Louis, as Busch Stadium has the second-lowest three-year home run park factor in the National League (82, behind Petco’s 78).

While it’s true that Wood is a flyball pitcher, throwing them at a rate of 47.1 %, it’s also true that he is a bad-control pitcher: So far in 2011, he has a walk rate of 5.04, and ZiPS projects that he’s not going to be much better the rest of the way, at 4.71. The Cardinals could use some bullpen help, but Wood isn’t the pitcher they should be looking for. Nunez, on the other hand, has both flyball and control tendencies. Too bad the Cardinals already have enough righties who fit that profile.

Trading time
So if not Wood or Nunez, for whom should the Cardinals trade? Matt Meyers has a list of Five NL trades that should happen (subscription required), in which he covers trades for Cardinal rivals like the Reds and Brewers, but none for St. Louis. Allow us to propose something:  Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter and others for Wandy Rodriquez. The Cardinals’ package could include different near-ready prospects at positions where they already have some depth — third base, outfield, right-handed pitching.

Rodriguez has two more years with an option in 2014 on a very reasonable contract ($7, $13, $13 million, respectively). He has been one of the top pitchers in the league and would give the Cardinals a legitimate front three in the rotation against the Phillies in a possible NL pennant series, not to mention go a long way toward helping the Cardinals win the division. Alternatively, the Cardinals might pursue a cheaper option (and one which the Astros would be more likely to do) and trade for Brett Myers.  Myers would shore up the rotation and, come playoff time, could make an interesting option out of the bullpen.

News of the impossible
Sluggish bats hand Jaime first loss to Reds — MLB.com headline

Look out below!
Cards drop heartbreaker on walk-off in ninth — MLB.com headline

That’s four more years than OJ got
Cards lock up Garcia for four more years — STLToday headline

I know that dude!
Royals recall LHP Duffy to start vs. White Sox — ESPN headline

They were mad about losing the NBA championship
Heat hits Halladay as Cubs beat Phillies — Reuters headline

Who’s in first?
The Pittsburgh Pirates woke up today to a strange sight: Their name alone at the top of the standings. How strange was it? They haven’t been in first by themselves this late in the season since 1992, when they won the division title (though they came close in 1997, in first place as late as July 17). A less kind blogger would point out that, taking their Pythagorean record into account, the plucky Pirates (49-45) are actually third in the division, behind the Reds (51-45) and Cardinals (50-45). That would of course be the height of ungraciousness, given that the Pirates haven’t had much to cheer about in a couple of decades. While we’re talking about the Pirates, though, perhaps they would consider trading the Cardinals a certain switch-hitting second baseman…

In his 10-year career, Albert Pujols has never known anything but a high level of success. Even measured by superannuated statistics like runs batted in and batting average, he has an enviable and famous streak: 10-consecutive seasons with 30 home runs, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average. But this year, in part due to relatively poor hitting and in part due to time lost to injury, Pujols’s streak is in serious jeopardy.

The Cardinal first baseman’s totals of 50 RBI and .280 batting average are his lowest coming into the All-Star break of his career, and his home-run total of 18 is second-lowest:

Pujols’s ZiPS updated season projection over at Fangraphs doesn’t bode well for the streak continuing: It projects a season of 33 HRs, 94 RBIs and .289 batting average. What would it take for Pujols to surmount those projections?

Assuming that he gets the 272 plate appearances that ZiPS projects him to, here’s what Albert will have to hit to achieve the 30/100/.300 mark again:

Obviously, ZiPS already figures him to clear the homer bar. But he is going to have to go beyond expectations to crack 100 RBIs and a .300 BA. Both are doable, as he has had four seasons in his career with at least an 18.4% RBI rate (RBI to plate appearances), though not since 2009, and carries a .329 career average.

And alas, another, more meaningful streak is in jeopardy: Pujols’s 10-consecutive seasons with a .400+ weighted On-Base Average. ZiPS projects him to fall short, at .388. Ted Williams began his career with 17, Lou Gehrig 16 and Stan Musial 14. Ty Cobb had a run of 21, Babe Ruth 18 and Jimmie Foxx 15, though not to start. So what does Pujols need to hit for the rest of the season to keep up with the legends?

A .433 wOBA is also certainly within Pujols’s ability, him having hit .449 in 2009 and a career wOBA of .431. We’d say that the chances of him turning either trick are still not good, but then again, this is the guy who returned from an estimated four-week injury in 15 days.