As Major League Baseball rounds second base on the basepaths of the season, the standings reflect some of the usual sights, like the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays battling in the AL East, the Phillies and Braves neck-and-neck in the NL East, and the Cardinals and Brewers locked up in the NL Central. But look a little closer at the American League and you’ll notice something else: A relative parity between the teams.
The American League hasn’t been this closely bunched (measured by variance) at this point in the season since 1993, before the wild card began and when the league had only two divisions and the best team — the Blue Jays — had a winning percentage of .576, and the worst — the Brewers — were at .415 on July 7. Sure, the Red Sox and Yankees are still the best teams in the team, but even they aren’t head and shoulders ahead of everyone else, with respective winning percentages of .598 and .593. And at the bottom end, no AL team is below .409.
Why the parity? Well, the junior circuit has been trending that way for a while now, with a steady decrease since 2001 in the statistical variance (a measure of how far a set of numbers are spread out from each other) of teams’ winning percentages, going from .011 in 2001 to .003 this year (with a hiccup last year of .008).

The glory of the once-indomitable Yankees has faded a bit in recent years, to be sure, but the so-called second division teams have improved. The Cleveland Indians are one such club, going from a team that more closely resembled Charlie Sheen’s “Major League” version, with a .393 winning percentage last year at this time, to a division-leading .547 today. To be sure, they may be playing a bit over their heads, given that their Pythagorean winning percentage is only .519. But the same is true in reverse for the Kansas City Royals, whose league-worst .409 winning percentage belies their Pythagorean record of .443. Even so, .409 is a pretty solid win rate for the worst team in the league. And the Baltimore Orioles, who last July 7 carried an MLB-worst .298 record, are playing better, at .424.
As a result, no one is running away with any division just yet. Compared to last year, when the games difference between the top three teams in each division averaged four games, this year it is under three. Even the Seattle Mariners are within two games of .500 and 4.5 games of the division-leading and pennant-defending Texas Rangers.
One possible explanation is the winter migration of key players. This past winter, a few impact players moved from upper-crust teams, to lower-tier teams or switched leagues. The biggest balance-shifting move of all was the Rangers — and, as it turned out, the Yankees — losing Cliff Lee to the NL’s Phillies. Another highly successful AL team, the Red Sox, saw some offseason change, as well. Although Boston brought in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, it lost two key players when Adrian Beltre signed with the Rangers and Victor Martinez left for the greeer pastures (as in $50 million) of Detroit.
The parity showed in interleague play, too. The best of the West, Texas, went only 9-9 against NL teams, and Boston went 10-8. Two of the AL’s worst teams, however, didn’t fare much worse, though: The Twins and Athletics each went 8-10 against the Senior Circuit.
Will the American League finish with the same kind of parity it has seen in the first half of the season? If recent history is any indication, it likely will. With the exception of the aberrant 2010 season, in which the league’s parity greatly increased by the end of the season, the AL hasn’t had much change in parity from July 7 to October. The Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers may return to the playoffs, but fans in Kansas City, Baltimore and Oakland can at least look forward to being relatively competitive in the second half.