Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for August, 2011

Schumaker joins ranks of La Russa’s fielder-pitchers

Monday, August 29th, 2011

In the Cardinals’ 13-2 tanking to the Dodgers last week, Defensive-Spectrum Defier™  Skip Schumaker took one giant leap for his kind, moving all the way off the spectrum chart to pitcher, striking out two of the five batters he faced. He was no Aaron Miles, but he at least proved his versatility and added his name to Tony La Russa’s list of non-pitcher pitchers.

So where does the latter-day Howie Shanks rank among La Russa’s rag-armed fielders who have done a stint on the mound for the Cardinals? Here’s the list, ranked by number of appearances:

Rk Player G GF IP H BB SO HR BF IBB HBP BK WP
1 Aaron Miles 5 5 5 5 0 0 1 20 0 1 0 0
2 Gary Gaetti 2 2 1.1 3 0 0 0 8 0 1 0 0
5 Joe Mather 1 1 2 2 3 0 0 12 2 1 0 0
7 Cody McKay 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
8 Bobby Bonilla 1 1 1 3 1 0 1 6 0 0 1 0
3 Skip Schumaker 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 5 0 0 0 0
4 Felipe Lopez 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
6 Scott Spiezio 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0

Some notes:

  • Miles may be TLR’s all-time fielder-reliever, but Joe Mather also got a lot of work in (second with 12 batters faced).
  • For all of his bellyaching about pitchers not plunking batters, Tony La Russa’s mop-up men have been relative head-hunters, hitting about 5% of the batters they’ve faced (compared to less than 1% among this year’s regular pitchers).
  • Rick Ankiel both pitched and played games in the field, but never in the same season.
  • The profile of the La Russa fill-in pitcher appears to be a switch-hitting (half have been) third baseman (all).

Let’s extend our quest to include La Russa’s Oakland Athletics days. Did the profile hold true back then?

  • Kevin Seitzer
  • Vance Law

Though neither was a switch hitter, both were third basemen. (We should note here that Seitzer had a perfect outing, striking out the only batter he faced back in 1993.) You have to go all the way back to TLR’s ChiSox tenure to find the first mold-making fielder-pitcher: the infamous left-handed catcher — and yes, sometime third baseman — Mike Squires.

While we’re at it, let’s look at the reverse: TLR’s Cardinal pitchers who have played somewhere else in the field:

Of course, the Cardinals had a tradition of fielding pitchers before La Russa came to town. Whitey Herzog switched his relief pitchers into the outfield with aplomb:

Oh, and Whitey also had a couple of infielders that he turned to to handle the blowout innings. One was Tim Jones. The other? Tony La Russa’s longtime and current third-base coach, Jose Oquendo.

Cards starters aren’t having off year

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Post-Dispatch writer Rick Hummel wrote recently that the Cards starters are having an off year. His argument seems to rest on the rotation’s win totals, which is always an argument “smell,” of course. But he quotes pitching coach Dave Duncan making a similar, if more general observation: “I thought the performance of our rotation would be better than it’s been.” So have the Cardinal starters somehow not lived up to expectations?

First, their to-date numbers (as starters):

Name GS IP ERA FIP
Chris Carpenter 27 186 1/3 3.57 3.05
Jaime Garcia 26 159 3.45 3.22
Kyle Lohse 25 157 3.73 3.96
Jake Westbrook 26 149 1/3 4.70 4.32
Kyle McClellan 17 104 2/3 4.21 4.53

And if we revisit the preseason FIP projections for this group, who, with the exception of McClellan, has been the rotation the entire season, we see how well they actually fared relative to their average FIP projections:

Name RC BJ M Z F Avg Actual How fared?
Carpenter 3.48 3.27 3.50 3.44 3.59 3.46 3.05 much better
Garcia 3.44 3.87 3.56 3.61 3.92 3.68 3.22 much better
Lohse 4.36 4.36 4.14 4.20 4.36 4.28 3.96 better
Westbrook 4.23 4.15 4.14 4.13 4.14 4.16 4.32 slightly worse
McClellan 4.09 3.80 3.96 4.21 4.05 4.02 4.53 much worse

RC: RotoChamp
BJ: Bill James
M: Marcel
Z: ZiPS
F: Fans

The team’s top three starters — those with the most games started and innings — all have done better than expected. The last two, one of whom lost his spot in the rotation, have fared worse.

The Commish is right on a good many things, but on this one, he was led astray by reliance on a bad stat. The Cardinal starters haven’t had an off year: They’ve been no worse and, if anything, on the whole slightly better than anyone expected.

Baserunning blunders: How bad are the Cardinals?

Monday, August 22nd, 2011

In the Cardinals’ game Monday, the Dodgers picked off Jon Jay. It was the second straight game in which the Cardinals needlessly lost a baserunner (Matt Holliday was caught napping at second base Sunday night). In a season of forgotten fundamentals, how have the Cardinals fared running the bases?

First, let’s narrow the scope to only outs on bases and pickoffs. (The Cardinals are last in the major leagues in stolen-base percentage at a pathetic 58%. The good news is that they haven’t tried much, with the third-fewest attempts per opportunity.) We consider failure at stealing less of a mental blunder (at least on the part of the player) than getting picked off and thrown out stretching. Let’s start with outs on bases — we used Outs On Bases per Stolen-Base Opportunities (a decent way of determining chances):

Team SBO OOB OOB/Opp
MIL 1746 62 3.6%
ARI 1676 53 3.2%
COL 1804 55 3.0%
SDP 1714 52 3.0%
HOU 1746 51 2.9%
ATL 1742 50 2.9%
LAD 1759 50 2.8%
CHC 1794 49 2.7%
LgAvg 1761 46 2.6%
PIT 1704 44 2.6%
STL 1869 48 2.6%
WSN 1616 38 2.4%
CIN 1831 40 2.2%
SFG 1724 36 2.1%
PHI 1772 36 2.0%
FLA 1782 36 2.0%
NYM 1902 36 1.9%

The Cardinals are clearly better than average here. So what about those pickoffs?

Team SBO PO PO/Opp
ARI 1676 23 1.4%
SDP 1714 21 1.2%
NYM 1902 20 1.1%
LAD 1759 18 1.0%
PIT 1704 17 1.0%
WSN 1616 16 1.0%
CIN 1831 17 0.9%
ATL 1742 15 0.9%
LgAvg 1761 15 0.9%
SFG 1724 14 0.8%
COL 1804 14 0.8%
STL 1869 14 0.7%
MIL 1746 13 0.7%
FLA 1782 13 0.7%
PHI 1772 12 0.7%
HOU 1746 11 0.6%
CHC 1794 7 0.4%

Here, too, the Cardinals aren’t that bad. Now we don’t have an easy way of contextualizing those outs on bases or pickoffs (perhaps that’s an offseason project), which may help in understanding the actual impact of those plays, even if they haven’t happened all that often. As for pure rate of baserunning blunders, this doesn’t appear to be one of the fundamentals with which the Cardinals have struggled this year.

Why Wandy would work

Saturday, August 20th, 2011

The Cardinals’ erstwhile Central Division rival Astros reportedly placed starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez on waivers yesterday. Assuming the Cardinals haven’t thrown in the towel on the season (a big assumption, considering their Saturday-afternoon lineup vs. the Cubs) — and if they want to get a head start on 2012 — they should claim Rodriguez.

First, if the Cardinals are going to seriously try to catch the Brewers this year, they’re going to need help — and not simply a minor improvement — in their rotation. Hitting isn’t their weakness — they lead the league in wOBA, as they have all season — but their rotation can stand an upgrade for the final 40 days of the season: Their starters’ combined FIP is 3.79, seventh in the NL, notably behind the Phillies, Braves, Giants and Brewers — all teams with better records than the Cardinals. For the rest of the season, Rodriguez represents an upgrade from four of the team’s current five starters — consider the projected ERA and FIP for the following:

Pitcher ERA FIP
Rodriguez 3.64 3.48
Garcia 3.71 3.56
Jackson 3.83 3.64
Lohse 4.24 3.77
Westbrook 4.50 4.21

Unlike Edwin Jackson, for whom the team traded to shore up the pitching (and provide cover for jettisoning Colby Rasmus), Rodriguez probably won’t require much — certainly not a Rasmus — to acquire. True, his contract isn’t a bargain, but it’s rather reasonable, considering that it’s low exposure (two years) and that it’s hard to imagine that Jackson will settle for a contract of less value this winter.

And unlike Jackson, Rodriguez isn’t simply a one-off acquisition. Under contract for two more seasons at $10 and $13 million, respectively, the lefty fills a hole in the club’s rotation not only in 2011 but in 2012 and 2013. Rodriguez figures to be a better deal in 2012 than Chris Carpenter, whose $15 million option at age 37 is untenable. Even though the Cardinals will have Garcia, Wainwright (likely), Lohse and Westbrook next year, Wainwright’s health, and Lohse and Westbook’s remaining skill sets are far from certain. And the only major-league talent under contract in 2013 will be Garcia and Wainwright.

Whether the Cardinals can claim and acquire Rodriguez simply for the price of his contract or negotiate with the Astros to land him in a trade, it makes sense both in the short- and long-term to get Rodriguez. Why not give the fans a legitimate final hope for the all-in 2011 season while keeping the team in competitive shape next year?

All-Time Diminutive Cardinals, Browns teams

Friday, August 19th, 2011

Today, as Chris Jaffe at The Hardball Times kindly chronicles, is the 60th anniversary of the debut of baseball’s shortest player (and owner of the best career on-base percentage), Eddie Gaedel. In honor of the St. Louis Browns’ Gaedel and vertically challenged players everywhere, we present two all-time teams, prompted by a discussion with curator of all things abnormal, Matt Sebek: The All-Time Diminutive Cardinals and the All-Time Diminutive Browns (that is, 5′9″ and under). We took the best single-season performances at each position and filled a 25-man roster for each team.

First, Bill Veeck’s Browns:

Po Year Batters Ht WAR
C 1906 Branch Rickey 69 2.2
1B 1925 Harry Rice 69 4.8
2B 1911 Frank LaPorte 68 3.3
3B 1911 Jimmy Austin 67 3.4
SS 1906 Bobby Wallace 68 5.6
LF 1906 George Stone 69 9.8
CF 1906 Charlie Hemphill 69 5.1
RF 1942 Chet Laabs 68 3.7
OF/IF 1902 Jesse Burkett 68 3.9
OF 1921 Jack Tobin 68 3.6
IF 1908 Hobe Ferris 68 3.1
IF 1908 Jimmy Williams 69 2.9
IF 1931 Ski Melillo 68 2.8
OF 1909 Danny Hoffman 69 2.6
IF 1916 Doc Lavan 68 2.3
OF/IF 1907 Harry Niles 68 2.2
P 1903 Willie Sudhoff 67 5.3
P 1905 Harry Howell 69 4.9
P 1906 Barney Pelty 69 4.6
P 1914 Earl Hamilton 68 3.8
P 1950 Stubby Overmire 67 3.1
P 1925 Bullet Joe Bush 69 1.6
P 1913 Roy Mitchell 69 1.4
P 1920 Bill Bayne 69 1.0
P 1915 Red Hoff 69 0.6

And the Cardinals:

Po Year Player Ht WAR
C 1926 Bob O’Farrell 69 3.4
1B 1934 Ripper Collins 69 6.1
2B 1952 Solly Hemus 69 6.4
3B 1933 Pepper Martin 68 5.9
SS 1901 Bobby Wallace 68 8.1
LF 1901 Jesse Burkett 68 9.2
CF 1967 Curt Flood 69 5.1
RF 1942 Enos Slaughter 69 7.1
C 1911 Roger Bresnahan 69 2.8
OF 1982 Lonnie Smith 69 5.9
OF/IF 1925 Ray Blades 67 4.6
IF 1919 Milt Stock 68 4.4
IF 2005 David Eckstein 66 4.2
IF 1941 Jimmy Brown 68 4.1
IF 1989 Terry Pendleton 69 4.0
IF 1914 Miller Huggins 66 3.8
P 1953 Harvey Haddix 69 7.0
P 1944 Ted Wilks 69 4.3
P 1955 Luis Arroyo 68 1.8
P 1951 Joe Presko 69 1.5
P 1938 Roy Henshaw 68 1.5
P 1921 Bill Pertica 69 1.2
P 1963 Bobby Shantz 66 1.2
P 1908 Johnny Lush 69 1.2
P 1901 Willie Sudhoff 67 1.0

Notes:

  • The Cardinals lineup features several Hall of Famers: Wallace, Burkett, Slaughter, Bresnahan, Huggins, Eckstein*.
  • And you thought Branch Rickey was famous only for his role in Jackie Robinson’s career! He was a legendary short player!
  • Crab Burkett, Wallace and Willie Sudhoff appear on both teams.
  • Long before Stubby Clapp came onto the scene, there was Stubby Overmire.

* University of Florida Athletic Hall of Fame