Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for September, 2011

Cardinals, Carpenter save best for last

Friday, September 30th, 2011

After playing eight consecutive nail-biters, the Cardinals finished their regular season with a laugher and laughed best as they clinched the wild card Wednesday night. And Chris Carpenter saved his best game for last, striking out 11 and walking only one for a fielding-independent game score of 76. It was his best game of the season and the fifth-best of his illustrious career:

Rk Date Tm Opp IP BF BB SO HR FIGS
1 6/25/05 STL PIT 9 29 0 11 0 80
2 5/25/09 STL MIL 8 25 0 10 0 79
3 9/4/01 TOR NYY 9 33 0 12 0 78
4 7/17/05 STL HOU 9 28 0 9 0 77
5 4/5/01 TOR TBD 8 27 1 11 0 76
5 6/14/05 STL TOR 9 28 1 10 0 76
5 9/28/11 STL HOU 9 30 1 11 0 76
8 9/5/10 STL CIN 7 1/3 29 0 11 0 75
9 9/7/09 STL MIL 9 29 2 10 0 72
9 8/12/09 STL CIN 7 29 0 10 0 72
9 7/16/98 TOR CHW 8 29 1 10 0 72

Granted, the Astros barely qualify as a major-league team, but then again, they have still beaten someone 56 times this season, and Carp did what he was supposed to do.

In a week of high, late-inning drama, the finale was a fait accompli early on, with the only suspense being the Braves’ game. The late-season run of high-tension games will prepare the team well for the Philies, against whom they can expect more of the same grinding, late-resolution “hard nine” type — and less of the blowout variety that they used to punctuate their regular season Wednesday.

Cardiac Cards waiting til late to decide games

Wednesday, September 28th, 2011

Whether they win, lose or tie for the wild card today, the Cardinals certainly have played some exciting games down the stretch. The old football team in St. Louis used to be known as the Cardiac Cardinals. The 2011 baseball team, with their last eight games having been decided in the seventh inning or later, has just as much claim to the moniker.

As you can see below, the month of September has featured many nail-biters, both for the Cardinals and the Braves. But whereas the Braves have been on a streak of less-tense games — that is, games whose biggest play (by change in win probability) happened earlier than the seventh inning — the Cardinals are playing tight games as they near the finish line:

Sabermetric MVP update: NL top 20

Saturday, September 24th, 2011

A lot of people are writing about NL MVP candidates these days, and the trendy favorite seems to be Matt Kemp, though of course the locals are talking up Albert Pujols. Both are top-rail players, but what do the numbers say?

Rk Name Team WAR WPA MVP
1 Matt Kemp Dodgers 8.3 5.71 14.01
2 Joey Votto Reds 6.9 6.58 13.48
3 Roy Halladay Phillies 8.0 4.71 12.71
4 Ryan Braun Brewers 6.9 5.21 12.11
5 Cliff Lee Phillies 6.7 4.47 11.17
6 Prince Fielder Brewers 4.8 6.11 10.91
7 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 6.8 3.83 10.63
8 Ian Kennedy Diamondbacks 4.9 5.23 10.13
9 Albert Pujols Cardinals 5.6 4.38 9.98
10 Lance Berkman Cardinals 4.6 5.09 9.69
11 Cole Hamels Phillies 5.0 4.19 9.19
12 Justin Upton Diamondbacks 6.7 2.38 9.08
13 Shane Victorino Phillies 5.8 2.81 8.61
14 Troy Tulowitzki Rockies 6.4 2.21 8.61
15 Pablo Sandoval Giants 5.3 2.84 8.14
16 Carlos Beltran - – - 4.6 3.47 8.07
17 Andrew McCutchen Pirates 5.6 2.05 7.65
18 Matt Holliday Cardinals 4.9 2.61 7.51
19 Hunter Pence - – - 4.3 2.99 7.29
20 Matt Cain Giants 5.4 1.83 7.23

The Cardinals have two top-10 candidates in Pujols and Berkman (and three in the top 20), whose candidacy deserves as much backing as Pujols’s. But with four games left in the campaign, it appears that Kemp is equal to the hype. Allow us to add our voice to the KEMvP cheers.

Freese has biggest hit, game of career

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

After Tony La Russa perhaps unintentionally showed confidence in his offense by not pinch hitting for his pitcher down by a run in the sixth inning, David Freese bailed out his manager with a momentous three-run home run to swing an imminent loss into a key win. It was the biggest hit of Freese’s burgeoning career, and the third-biggest of the team’s season:

Rk Date Batter Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out WPA Play Description
1 4/8/11 Ryan Theriot @SFG Brian Wilson down 3-2 t9 123 2 0.63 Single
2 8/26/11 Lance Berkman PIT Jose Veras down 4-3 b8 1– 1 0.58 Home run
3 5/3/11 Daniel Descalso FLA Clay Hensley down 5-4 b7 -12 2 0.56 Home run
3 9/21/11 David Freese NYM Pedro Beato down 4-3 b7 -12 2 0.56 Home run
5 6/18/11 Matt Holliday KCR Greg Holland down 4-3 b8 -2- 1 0.53 Home run

On the strength of his first-inning run-scoring triple and game-changing home run, Freese added a whopping .702 win-probability to the game (per Baseball-Reference; .685 by Fangraphs), the second-highest single-game WPA by a batter on the Cardinals’ season:

Rk Player Date Opp Rslt PA H 2B 3B HR RBI BB WPA
1 Albert Pujols 6/4/11 CHC W  5-4 6 3 1 0 2 4 1 .851
2 David Freese 9/21/11 NYM W  6-5 4 2 0 1 1 5 0 .702
3 Daniel Descalso 5/3/11 FLA W  7-5 4 2 0 0 1 3 1 .678
4 Ryan Theriot 4/8/11 SFG L  4-5 6 2 0 0 0 2 1 .617
5 Skip Schumaker 6/19/11 KCR W  5-4 2 2 0 0 1 2 0 .580
6 Albert Pujols 7/9/11 ARI W  7-6 5 3 0 0 1 3 1 .553
7 Daniel Descalso 4/26/11 HOU L  5-6 4 3 2 1 0 3 1 .522

We love that he struck out twice, too (if only he had hit into a double play). In addition to surpassing last year’s WAR of 1.5 with more than 2.0 this season, he has supplied that production during more key moments this year, improving from negative WPA (-0.66) to well into the positive (0.91). He is one of the team’s most valuable players this season (even if TLR occasionally still treats him like a rookie) — yesterday we unveiled the sabermetric MVP leaders in the AL; today let’s look at the Cardinals. First, the batters:

Rk Name WAR WPA MVP
1 Albert Pujols 5.5 4.34 9.84
2 Lance Berkman 4.6 5.10 9.70
3 Matt Holliday 4.9 2.61 7.51
4 Yadier Molina 3.7 1.65 5.35
5 David Freese 2.1 0.91 3.01
6 Allen Craig 1.8 0.81 2.61
7 Nick Punto 1.4 0.87 2.27
8 Jon Jay 2.5 -0.39 2.11
9 Daniel Descalso 0.5 1.48 1.98
10 Rafael Furcal 1.2 0.07 1.27
11 Colby Rasmus 1.3 -0.46 0.84
12 Adron Chambers 0.1 0.33 0.43
13 Skip Schumaker 0.7 -0.30 0.40
14 Tony Cruz 0.2 0.12 0.32
15 Gerald Laird 0.1 0.02 0.12
16 Andrew Brown -0.1 0.05 -0.05
17 Peter Kozma 0.1 -0.16 -0.06
18 Mark Hamilton -0.1 -0.05 -0.15
19 Ryan Theriot 0.6 -0.97 -0.37
20 Shane Robinson -0.1 -0.29 -0.39
21 Matt Carpenter -0.1 -0.34 -0.44
22 Corey Patterson -0.3 -0.58 -0.88
23 Tyler Greene 0.0 -1.02 -1.02

We confess a bit of schadenfreude seeing the departed Colby Rasmus ahead of TLR-loved regulars Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot (speaking of departed, Brendan Ryan has an MVP score of 1.69, more than Schumaker, Theriot and Rafael Furcal combined). Anyway, the pitchers:

Name WAR WPA MVP
Chris Carpenter 4.4 1.01 5.41
Jaime Garcia 3.7 -0.12 3.58
Jason Motte 1.6 1.38 2.98
Kyle Lohse 2.2 0.19 2.39
Fernando Salas 0.9 1.29 2.19
Lance Lynn 0.6 1.11 1.71
Octavio Dotel 0.7 0.35 1.05
Eduardo Sanchez 0.3 0.67 0.97
Edwin Jackson 0.6 -0.18 0.42
Marc Rzepczynski 0.4 -0.30 0.10
P.J. Walters -0.1 0.05 -0.05
Skip Schumaker -0.1 0.00 -0.10
Arthur Rhodes -0.3 0.12 -0.18
Brandon Dickson -0.1 -0.09 -0.19
Jake Westbrook 1.0 -1.30 -0.30
Kyle McClellan -0.4 0.07 -0.33
Maikel Cleto -0.2 -0.16 -0.36
Miguel Batista -0.5 0.14 -0.36
Raul Valdes 0.0 -0.43 -0.43
Bryan Augenstein -0.1 -0.47 -0.57
Mitchell Boggs 0.3 -0.96 -0.66
Trever Miller -0.3 -0.75 -1.05
Brian Tallet -0.5 -0.61 -1.11
Ryan Franklin -1.2 -2.75 -3.95

And overall:

Rk Name WAR WPA MVP
1 Albert Pujols 5.5 4.34 9.84
2 Lance Berkman 4.6 5.10 9.70
3 Matt Holliday 4.9 2.61 7.51
4 Chris Carpenter 4.4 1.01 5.41
5 Yadier Molina 3.7 1.65 5.35
6 Jaime Garcia 3.7 -0.12 3.58
7 David Freese 2.1 0.91 3.01
8 Jason Motte 1.6 1.38 2.98
9 Allen Craig 1.8 0.81 2.61
10 Kyle Lohse 2.2 0.19 2.39

Jason Motte, another of last-night’s heros, has climbed the list to #8. And of course Albert Pujols, the team’s perennial MVP, has again risen to the top, even in an off year.

Sabermetric MVP update: AL top 20

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

It’s close enough to the end of the season for us to feel comfortable unveiling a leaderboard for our so-called sabermetric MVP rankings. Since a few people are talking about the possibility of a pitcher — namely Justin Verlander — winning the MVP, let’s check in on the junior circuit first.

Rk Name WAR WPA MVP
1 Jose Bautista 8.2 7.74 15.94
2 Jacoby Ellsbury 8.5 5.24 13.74
3 Miguel Cabrera 6.1 6.10 12.20
4 Justin Verlander 7.0 5.16 12.16
5 CC Sabathia 7.1 3.51 10.61
6 Jered Weaver 5.6 4.85 10.45
7 Curtis Granderson 7.0 3.03 10.03
8 Alex Gordon 6.4 3.43 9.83
9 Dan Haren 6.1 3.60 9.70
10 Adrian Gonzalez 6.1 3.20 9.30
11 Dustin Pedroia 7.3 1.94 9.24
12 Josh Hamilton 3.8 5.02 8.82
13 James Shields 4.9 3.89 8.79
14 Josh Beckett 4.2 4.13 8.33
14 Alex Avila 5.5 2.83 8.33
16 Evan Longoria 5.1 2.98 8.08
17 Ian Kinsler 6.6 1.39 7.99
18 Robinson Cano 5.5 2.10 7.60
19 C.J. Wilson 5.4 1.93 7.33
20 Ben Zobrist 5.8 1.38 7.18

Verlander is indeed competitive, but according to our formula, he’s not even the most valuable on his own team, which, by the way, has three players in our top 20. That’s not saying much, of course, since Miguel Cabrera is having another blockbuster campaign. But Jose Bautista is far and away the most valuable in the AL right now, regardless of position.