Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for October, 2011

Pujols posts third-best offensive World Series game in history

Sunday, October 23rd, 2011

Albert Pujols again outdid himself this postseason, slamming three home runs and totaling 14 bases in Game 3 of the 2011 World Series. Previously this October, he had set career and team playoff bests by creating 8.0 runs in Game 2 of the NLCS, and prior to had created 6.0 in the NLDS. His spectacular night in Arlington Saturday eclipsed both of those marks with a Ruthian 11.7 runs created (technical version). Pujols’s game was the third-best in World Series play:

Rk Player Date Gm# Tm Opp PA H 2B 3B HR TB BB RC
1 Babe Ruth 10/6/26 4 NYY STL 5 3 0 0 3 12 2 12.5
2 Reggie Jackson 10/18/77 6 NYY LAD 4 3 0 0 3 12 1 12.3
3 Albert Pujols 10/22/11 3 STL TEX 6 5 0 0 3 14 0 11.7
4 Tim Salmon 10/20/02 2 ANA SFG 5 4 0 0 2 10 1 10.3
5 Lou Gehrig 10/7/28 3 NYY STL 4 2 0 0 2 8 2 8.5
6 Billy Hatcher 10/17/90 2 CIN OAK 5 4 2 1 0 8 1 8.0
6 Robin Yount 10/17/82 5 MIL STL 4 4 1 0 1 8 0 8.0
8 Dan Driessen 10/19/76 3 CIN NYY 4 3 1 0 1 7 1 7.5
8 Gary Carter 10/22/86 4 NYM BOS 4 3 1 0 2 10 0 7.5
8 Duke Snider 10/2/55 5 BRO NYY 4 3 1 0 2 10 0 7.5

And it was the fourth-best offensive show in playoff history:

Rk Player Date Series Gm# Tm Opp PA H 2B 3B HR TB BB RC
1 Adam Kennedy 10/13/02 ALCS 5 ANA MIN 4 4 0 0 3 13 0 13.0
2 Babe Ruth 10/6/26 WS 4 NYY STL 5 3 0 0 3 12 2 12.5
3 Reggie Jackson 10/18/77 WS 6 NYY LAD 4 3 0 0 3 12 1 12.3
4 Albert Pujols 10/22/11 WS 3 STL TEX 6 5 0 0 3 14 0 11.7
5 Will Clark 10/4/89 NLCS 1 SFG CHC 5 4 1 0 2 11 1 11.3
6 Bob Robertson 10/3/71 NLCS 2 PIT SFG 5 4 1 0 3 14 0 11.2
7 George Brett 10/11/85 ALCS 3 KCR TOR 4 4 1 0 2 11 0 11.0
8 Hideki Matsui 10/16/04 ALCS 3 NYY BOS 6 5 2 0 2 13 0 10.8
9 A.J. Pierzynski 10/4/05 ALDS 1 CHW BOS 4 3 1 0 2 10 0 10.3
9 Tim Salmon 10/20/02 WS 2 ANA SFG 5 4 0 0 2 10 1 10.3

World Series Game 2 Quotebook

Saturday, October 22nd, 2011

It’s a tough loss, but we have a tough team. We’ve battled a lot of tough things this year. We’ve had a lot of tough losses in the beginning of the year, and all throughout the year. We’ve had to come back the next day and strap it up and come back and get a win.

Allen Craig

Going up 2-0 would’ve been too easy for the Cardinals, who have flourished as the underdog this year. Are they procrastinators or just lucky late?

I knew there was no outs, and he hit it pretty hard, so I was just trying to keep my throw low, but it wasn’t a good enough throw. I was just trying to make sure I kept the ball down.

Jon Jay

Credit Jay for manning up. True, his throw wasn’t great, but it didn’t require a Gold Glove first baseman to field it.

Feliz gets us three outs, and here we are with a win.

– Ron Washington

It didn’t help that after Yadier Molina walked on five pitches leading off, Nick Punto went up sac bunting. He struck out on three pitches out of the strike zone. We understand sac bunting in that situation, but TLR needs to pause and rethink the obvious, automatic move occasionally. Feliz is not infrequently wild — why not make him throw a strike first?

I blame it on myself. I didn’t make my pitches. I had a job to do, and I didn’t do it.

Jason Motte

Motte’s being a bit hard on himself. He can’t be blamed for the leadoff flare, and TLR should’ve let him stay in, given that he was the best option for the situation, in which the team needed a strikeout (twice, actually).

I knew he was swinging at the first pitch, no matter what.

Arthur Rhodes

For apparently knowing that Hamilton was first-pitch swinging, the pitch that Rhodes threw was awful. An 81-mph slider up in the zone is more like a get-ahead in the count pitch rather than an out pitch. If that’s the best pitch Rhodes has, he shouldn’t be playing for the Rangers or the Cardinals.

Mostly. it comes down to you make a move, and if it works, ‘Hey, what a good move.’ If it doesn’t work, ‘What was he thinking?’ That’s just the name of the game.

– TLR, before the game

If wise words are a sign of genius, then we give La Russa some credit here.

When I looked at St. Louis’ pitching, I don’t look at their pitching like a (Detroit ace Justin) Verlander, where you say boy, ‘Verlander is on, we’re going to hope that something good has to happen.’ I’m not downplaying the Cardinals’ pitching by any means.

– Nolan Ryan

It’s funny how people think that they can say one thing and in the next breath disclaim it, as if to head off any criticism for the first remark. As a player, Ryan was man enough to stand behind his pitching. As GM, he should be man enough to stand behind his words.

Classic ninth inning.

– TLR

We’re not sure what TLR’s definition of classic is, but pulling your best reliever for one of your worst with the game on the line isn’t ours. Can anyone imagine Whitey Herzog bringing in Jim Kaat for Bruce Sutter?

“”

Albert Pujols, after the game

I think we have a responsibility and we’re willing to live up to it. But somebody has got to be fair with us. I heard the criticism and it offends me because I know our attitude as an organization is 180 degrees different from the way it’s being portrayed. Nobody asked for those guys, and they got out of there. They had other things to do.

– TLR

If it’s true as reported that Pujols was in a media-free lounge after the game, this is a patently disingenuous statement by La Russa. For someone who has a history of such statements, not least of all throughout Mark McGwire’s career, it is not surprising.

To try to rip somebody’s reputation for something like this I don’t think is fair. But you know what? I don’t throw rocks at you guys. You guys are human. You guys make mistakes just like I do.

– Albert Pujols

Pujols doubles down by insulting the media after shirking them. His manager’s superciliousness appears to be rubbing off.

It was a good throw. It was a catch that I make 99 out of 100 times. It wasn’t a tough throw. It was more because I took my eyes off the play a little bit because I wanted to make the throw to third base. I don’t think it was Jay’s fault.

– Pujols

Jon Jay thanks you for clarifying — a day after he had to face reporters and protect you. Credit to the scorers, who ultimately got the call right in ruling an error on Pujols. As readers will note, we’re not a big fan of errors, but as long as they’re in the rules, scorers should apply them accordingly.

They’re just like we are, never say die, till the last out is made. It makes it fun.

Josh Hamilton

Well said. Not only are the two teams similarly matched (top-of-the-league offenses, with better-than-average pitching), it appears that they both “play a hard nine.” We expect to see you back in St. Louis, Hamilton.

Game 1 hardly proves La Russa a genius

Thursday, October 20th, 2011

At least a few commentators are falling over themselves in praise of Tony La Russa in the wake of the Cardinals’ Game 1 win over the Rangers. Forgive us if we sound ungracious, but making a few “book” moves that turn out well doesn’t exactly mean that your Mensa membership card is in the mail.

This isn’t to say that TLR isn’t a heady manager, or even “a genius.” We simply didn’t see anything in Game 1 that would distinguish him from any other major-league manager. It seems his biggest tactical move was pinch-hitting for his pitcher in the bottom of the sixth inning, hardly a novel play. Let’s reset:

  • Game tied, 2-2
  • Two outs, runners on first and third
  • CJ Wilson, a lefty, pitching

At this point, La Russa had the following options:

  1. Let Carpenter bat for himself
  2. Pinch hit with a lefty
  3. Pinch hit with a righty

Carpenter had turned in a solid six innings, having yielded a home run but little else. But with a rested bullpen and only three innings to go, the tie almost necessitated a pinch hitter with the potential (and as it turned out, ultimate) winning run on third.

With a left-handed Wilson on the mound, sending someone like Skip Schumaker or Daniel Descalso didn’t make much sense. That left option 3, and he chose Craig, his best hitter off the bench. Did this require genius? Even his subsequent decision to leave Craig in when Ron Washington summoned the right-handed Alexi Ogando was easy: Craig has nearly equal platoon splits, with a career .367 wOBA vs. LHP and a .360 vs. RHP. In any case, both of those numbers were better than anyone on the bench, left or right. To explain this “genius,” La Russa said that Craig has ”a history of taking great at-bats, especially with runners in scoring position.” Ah, yes, that rare skill that allows a player to summon superpowers simply by having someone standing on second or third base.

Later, La Russa left his own lefty, Marc Rzepczynski, in when Washington used pinch hitter Esteban German — a career .346 wOBA hitter vs. LHP. But this, too, was fairly basic: Most people knew that going to a righty reliever only would’ve provoked Washington to bring up the Rangers’ best batter on the bench, Mitch Moreland. While we’re on the subject, a lot of people are giving Washington static over failing to use Yorvit Torrealba in that spot. But Torrealba has only a .320 wOBA vs. LHP, much weaker than German. It’s true that German is probably a bit rusty, but it was surely a defensible decision.

This smells a lot to us like a case of managers getting credit (or blame) based on the performance of their players rather than the merit of their decisions. Had Craig struck out (as he appeared destined to) or German reached, we doubt that the “genius” storyline would’ve garnered any pixels today.

So it would seem that neither Washington is as clueless as he seemed, nor is La Russa as clever as he’s being made out to be. We suppose that, in comparison with Washington, TLR’s Game 1 managing appeared wise. But not according to any objective measure. Occasionally, a game offers opportunities for managers to act boldly or roll the dice. And sometimes, a game presents more or less straightforward decisions, and a good manager need only make them.

World Series: How the Rangers and Cardinals stack up

Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

The Rangers and Cardinals come into the World Series fairly well matched, as well similarly constructed. To start, they were the second- and first-rated offensive teams, respectively, in their leagues. The Rangers created 113 wRC+ on the strength of their .348 wOBA, and the the Cardinals led the senior circuit with 111 wRC+ and a .332 wOBA. On the mound, both teams ranked seventh in their leagues in FIP, the Rangers with 3.98 and the Cardinals with 3.75. How that talent is distributed across the positions, however, is varied. Following are a series of graphs that show how each team matches up, position-by-position, by season Wins Above Replacement.




Freese deserving NLCS Most Valuable Player pick

Monday, October 17th, 2011

David Freese won the NLCS Most Valuable Player award, and for good reason. He led the victorious Cardinals with a cumulative .668 win-probability added for the series, just ahead of Albert Pujols, who finished with .643:

As Freese alluded in his postgame comments, the bullpen as a group was a deserving consideration, as well, having racked up .471 between them. WPA tells the story of the series, as the Cardinals’ starting pitchers were a net negative, while Freese and Pujols provided most of the offense and left it to Lance Lynn, Jason Motte, Fernando Salas and Marc Rzepczynski to keep the leads.