Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for November, 2011

Defining success for Matheny in 2012

Wednesday, November 16th, 2011

[Today's United Cardinal Bloggers roundtable question comes from Deckacards at Cards 'N Stuff.]

And that brings us to our question:  What does Mike Matheny have to accomplish with this team in 2012 – with or without Pujols – to be considered “successful” in his rookie season?

Another 90 win season? Make the playoffs? Make the NLCS? Just contend? Win the World Series again? Just keep the team upright and drama-free? Etc. Make sure to include the reasoning behind your answer, perhaps even including a comparison between your expectations of Matheny…and what he needs to accomplish to be considered successful in 2012 (is there a difference?).

It’s possible to set expectations regardless of the personnel Matheny has. Actually, we would argue that roster-independent analysis is the only fair way to assess him. Success for Matheny means showing an ability to optimize his personnel (whoever they are), from lineup setting (no low-OBP leadoff men, please) to the rotation to minor-league callups. It also means consistently wise strategy, giving his team the best chance to win, whether it’s the running game or using his best relievers in the highest-leverage situations, regardless of “Save” conditions. It will be vital for Matheny to show restraint and not overreact when proven approaches appear to fail, even for long stretches (e.g., not putting on more hit and runs when the team is hitting into double plays). For someone with no managing experience, having patience with the long season and concepts like regression may be the most difficult. One unique challenge for Matheny will be helping the team adjust from a command-and-control environment to something conceivably less so. Clubhouse control will look different — perhaps a more self-policing approach — so Matheny will need to shepherd that change, most likely by relying on the team’s veterans, who have a somewhat checkered record of leadership (see the Game 2 walkout).

Those criteria to us are more an indicator of a manager’s success than wins and losses, which are mostly dependent on players, and certainly not playoff success, which of course is a crapshoot.

2011 ESPN SweetSpot Awards

Sunday, November 13th, 2011

As part of the benign oligarchy that is the group of ESPN SweetSpot bloggers, we occasionally participate in group votes. Today we present our completed ballot for the 2011 MLB awards. Alas, no Cardinals made it, though Allen Craig was an honorable mention for Rookie of the Year.

National League

MVP

Rk Player Team
1 Matt Kemp Dodgers
2 Ryan Braun Brewers
3 Joey Votto Reds
4 Prince Fielder Brewers
5 Roy Halladay Phillies

Cy  Young

Rk Player Team
1 Roy Halladay Phillies
2 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers
3 Cliff Lee Phillies

Rookie of the Year

Rk Player Team
1 Danny Espinosa Nationals
2 Craig Kimbrel Braves
3 Brandon Beachy Braves
American League

MVP

Rk Player Team
1 Jose Bautista Blue Jays
2 Jacoby Ellsbury Red Sox
3 Miguel Cabrera Tigers
4 Justin Verlander Tigers
5 Alex Gordon Royals

Cy  Young

Rk Player Team
1 CC Sabathia Yankees
2 Justin Verlander Tigers
3 Dan Haren Angels

Rookie of the Year

Rk Player Team
1 Michael Pineda Mariners
2 Dustin Ackley Mariners
3 Ivan Nova Yankees

Pay Pujols for 10 years, more than $200 million?

Thursday, November 10th, 2011

[Today's United Cardinal Bloggers roundtable question comes from El Maquino, appropriately about El Maquino himself, Albert Pujols.]

SI’s Jon Heyman recently reported that the Cardinals won’t be able to expand their original nine-year, $200m offer to Albert Pujols by a whole lot this offseason.  My question to you is: Would you pay Pujols for 10 years, north of $200m?
There’s a lot to consider: How much of a bargain he’s been for 11 years, how his salary would affect the rest of the team’s payroll,  his last years in the Majors, alternatives if he doesn’t sign, what he means to the city and the team.
Let me know what you all would do if you owned your favorite team!  (I keep him around at all cost, FYI)

No. The problem for the Cardinals may not be whether they pay more than 9/$200 million, but whether they have to. Given the scarcity of teams who both need a first baseman and can afford Pujols, the Cardinals will have only slightly more competition than they faced last winter, when they had sole negotiating rights. And John Mozeliak has a bit of a history here, handing Kyle Lohse a four-year deal before he hit the market and outbidding — who, we’re not sure — for Matt Holliday. So the relevant question is: Would they need to pay him more than 9/200? Though we expect at least a couple of other teams (e.g., Rangers and Angels) to bid, we doubt they would approach that mark.

As far as the bargain of his past contract goes, this is a non-starter. Both parties voluntarily entered into the agreement back in 2004, each believing that the deal was fair. Pujols, for all he knew, could’ve blown his elbow that spring and never played another game, and the Cardinals wouldn’t have asked for their $100 million back. Neither should Pujols “ask” for it back as he negotiates the next deal.

Ray gives some well-considered reasons why the idea of paying him “whatever it takes” isn’t helpful. And as Tom already intimated, we’re already beyond reasonable with a nine-year deal, when a seven-year deal starting in an age-32 season is even pushing it. To put it into perspective, Miguel Cabrera got “only” eight when he was 25. Even Barry Zito’s contact — regarded as one of the worst all-time — is only seven years and $126 million and even that was signed when he was 29.

Yes, baseball is a business, but that doesn’t mean that the owners are the only businessmen. Players are not serfs with limited rights (anymore) but highly compensated professionals in their own regard. Ownership has a downward force on salaries, but players exert an similar force upward, so the idea that “baseball is a business” should only be understood in neutral terms (other than the fact that the sport being a business has enabled us to witness the best baseball on earth). Albert Pujols has as much chance (or as some seem to believe of the organization, an obligation) to act “with his heart” as the management does. To hear Pujols tell it — “It’s not about the money. I already got my money. It’s about winning and that’s it.” — the World Series title (and two in the last six years) is all he needs.

Options for La Russa’s second career as minor-league team owner

Monday, November 7th, 2011

In announcing his retirement, Tony La Russa hinted that one of his post-managing ventures might be to buy a minor-league team.  With that in mind, we’d like to provide an initial list of eight teams for his winter shopping:

  1. Richmond Flying Squirrels (Giants, AA): A simple rework of the mascot would allow him to honor the 2011 Cardinals Rally Squirrel.
  2. Las Vegas 51s (Blue Jays, AAA): Lest retirement life become too placid, owning the 51s would give TLR a chance to again trade Colby Rasmus when he inevitably gets a weeklong midseason demotion.
  3. Charleston RiverDogs (Yankees, A): Every night would be “bring your dog to the park night.” If you don’t have your own, bring that stray you found down by the river.
  4. Yuma Scorpions (Independent): This would be a golden opportunity to be reunited with Jose (manager) and Ozzie (hitting coach) Canseco. The independent league can’t have rules agains the coaches ‘roiding up, can they?
  5. Novara Baseball United (Italian Baseball League): He accomplished everything he could in this hemisphere, so why not return to and conquer the familial homeland? If anyone can turn around a team that went 3-39 (.071 winning percentage) in 2011, La Russa can. Added bonus: He would inherit Frankenstein-reliever Tavarez Franklin.
  6. Hudson Valley Renegades (Rays, SS): La Russa will be right at home with a team who once used walkie talkies to communicate with their bullpen.
  7. New Britain Rock Cats (Twins, AA): An ownership stake in the Rock Cats affords La Russa the opportunity to promote the scrappy 5-foot-3 Chris Cates, shortest player in minor league baseball.
  8. Buffalo Bisons (Mets, AAA): First order of business: Change name to Buffalo Tofu.

Berkman was most valuable down the stretch

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

[Today's United Cardinal Bloggers roundtable question is from Christine Coleman of Aaron Miles' Fastball on behalf of her blogging co-conspirators, Miranda and Tara.]

The first two questions have looked ahead but Miranda, Tara and I are not quite ready to forget what the Cardinals have accomplished in 2011 only days after the World Series ended – and not just October, but the race to get there. We know the September surge and October playoff run were definitely team efforts. But, just like there’s an MVP for the NLCS and World Series, we want to know your opinion of who made the biggest contribution during that entire turnaround.

Our question: who is your most valuable Cardinal from Aug. 25 on?

As much as Chris Carpenter rallied the club with his indomitable spirit, Lance Berkman provided an unflappable, calm performance in leading the team after Aug. 25 with a .446 OBP. More contextually, though, he led with an incredible 1.879 WPA (Pujols had 1.332; Carp 0.396) — his hits mattered most. Big Puma’s Game-6 plate appearance epitomized what he brings to the club, both tangible — he knocked “only” a single, but it (.468 WPA) was worth more than all three of Pujols’s Game-3 home runs combined — and intangible — he approached the at-bat with the insouciance of a spring-training appearance and yet, as F. Scott Fitzgerald put it, “with the single-mindedness of a burglar blowing a safe.”

Which brings us to our second point. Unlike in years past, when Tony La Russa’s high-performing teams tensed up in the absence of an easygoing veteran presence  (as helpful as they are, one imagines that it’s difficult to relax around La Russa and Pujols), the 2011 Cardinals came back to win because they played with a free and easy spirit. We credit Berkman in large part for that.