Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Progressive Game Blog: Mets 5, Cardinals 0 (fifth inning)

John Mozeliak notes that the Cardinals “still think we have some holes.” One is right field, stomach and Carlos Beltran would fill it well.

Despite currently polling at Fungoes as the Cardinals

One Response to “Progressive Game Blog: Mets 5, Cardinals 0 (fifth inning)”

  1. Brandon Says:

    Horton also mentioned Furcal’s CS after Rooney gave his SB total on Monday. Furcal’s numbers, of course, are better than Wright’s in this respect, but it is great to hear that in addition to the “put pressure on the defense” stuff.

    Here’s a pretty interesting piece taking a game theory look at the “mixed strategy” benefits of stealing bases sometimes, which is the kind-of quantification of the “pressure” theory: http://econtricks.blogspot.com/2010/01/value-of-stolen-base-two-economic.html

    That article claims that batters will do better with somebody in stealing position. The 2011 National League performed as follows:

    Bases empty: .249/.309/.390
    Man on first base only (prime stealing situation, in theory): .266/.320/.405
    Men on, anywhere: .257/.331/.392

    League BABIP went from .295 overall to .308 with a man on first only, and to .306 with a man on first and third. What this tells me is that the BABIP jump in situations where the runner is likely to be held is responsible for basically all of the jump in production that comes from the “putting pressure on the defense theory”. The jump up for men on can be explained by 757 intentional walks, without which the slash line would be virtually identical to the bases-empty line.

    In short, the benefits of base stealing are twofold and only twofold: 1) whatever you get or lose from the steal itself and 2) 10-15 BABIP points if you can make him hold you on. It doesn’t take much running to force defenses to hold most runners on at first with second base vacant.

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