Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Carpenter’s injury sad but not shocking

John Mozeliak notes that the Cardinals “still think we have some holes.” One is right field, stomach and Carlos Beltran would fill it well.

Despite currently polling at Fungoes as the Cardinals

2 Responses to “Carpenter’s injury sad but not shocking”

  1. Brandon Says:

    Terrific analysis. It’s shocking only in the sense that it finally hit home that Carp was done. Over Carp’s Cardinal career, the only thing as certain as his injury was that he would come back, with 2012 reinforcing that notion for many.

    I don’t think this really surprises Mo or the rest of the front office, though. Perhaps Matheny, but he should know all too well what the reality was here. I think from a PR point of view, the front office had no choice but to do the dance, pay homage to Carp as the warrior, and lower expectations by talking it up as an unexpected blow.

    I also think, privately, Mo likely believes that “replacement level” in the context of Cardinal starters is fairly high. I think you could make a straight faced argument that the expected performance of Miller, Lynn, Kelly, and Rosenthal may not be much different than that of Carpenter and Lohse for 2013, to say nothing of the years to come. I really think the front office has planned for the Carp injury, Lohse regression, and Garcia’s Garcianess by simply projecting the kids forward. This may cost a few (potentially critical) wins in 2013, but Mo has always adjusted at the deadline, and if we need a run of the mill starter in June, I suspect he’ll be acquired. This will put the club in an enviable financial position, as the reality of paying guys like Craig, Freese, Motte, Jay, et al something more than minimum wage will begin to hit home.

  2. Pip Says:

    Thanks, Brandon, and thanks also for rounding it out with your own additional observations, which are spot-on.

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