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Randy Johnson’s best games by FIGS

Wednesday, January 6th, 2010

Randy Johnson, who has announced his retirement from baseball, pitched some of the most dominating games that the sport has seen in the last two decades, and perhaps of all-time. Here are his greatest hits by Fielding-Independent Game Score (FIGS):

Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt IP BF BB SO HR FIGS
1 5/8/2001 ARI CIN W 4-3 9 29 0 20 0 98
2 4/21/2002 ARI COL W 7-1 9 31 1 17 0 87
3 5/18/2004 ARI ATL W 2-0 9 27 0 13 0 86
4 8/28/1998 HOU PIT W 2-0 9 34 0 16 0 85
5 9/14/2002 ARI MIL W 5-0 9 32 2 17 0 83
5 5/28/1997 SEA TEX W 5-0 8 28 1 15 0 83
5 9/16/1992 SEA CAL L 1-2 9 31 1 15 0 83
8 7/15/1995 SEA TOR W 3-0 9 31 2 16 0 82
8 8/11/1994 SEA OAK W 8-1 9 32 1 15 0 82
8 7/25/2004 ARI COL L 2-3 8 30 0 14 0 82
8 4/9/2000 ARI PIT W 1-0 9 31 0 13 0 82
12 8/8/1997 SEA CHW W 5-0 9 35 3 19 0 81
13 8/15/2004 ARI NYM W 2-0 8 1/3 30 1 14 0 80
13 9/14/2003 ARI COL W 5-0 9 28 1 12 0 80
13 7/26/2005 NYY MIN W 4-0 8 26 0 11 0 80
13 8/11/1995 SEA KCR W 2-1 7 23 0 11 0 80
17 7/24/2001 ARI SDP W 11-0 7 1/3 25 2 14 0 79
17 9/7/1998 HOU CIN W 1-0 9 33 1 14 0 79
17 7/7/1995 SEA CLE W 5-3 9 34 0 13 0 79
20 8/25/2002 ARI CHC W 7-0 9 35 2 16 0 78
20 6/8/1997 SEA DET W 2-0 8 27 3 15 0 78
20 6/5/1995 SEA BAL W 2-0 9 30 1 12 0 78
20 5/15/2007 ARI COL W 3-0 6 18 0 9 0 78

His 5/8/2001 masterpiece is tied for the best since 1954, and perhaps best ever:

Rk Player Date Tm Opp IP BF BB SO HR FIGS
1 Randy Johnson 5/8/2001 ARI CIN 9 29 0 20 0 98
1 Kerry Wood 5/6/1998 CHC HOU 9 29 0 20 0 98
3 Roger Clemens 9/18/1996 BOS DET 9 32 0 20 0 95
4 Roger Clemens 8/25/1998 TOR KCR 9 30 0 18 0 93
5 Luis Tiant 7/3/1968 CLE MIN 10 36 0 19 0 92
5 Johan Santana 8/19/2007 MIN TEX 8 26 0 17 0 92
7 David Cone 10/6/1991 NYM PHI 9 31 1 19 0 91
8 Erik Bedard 7/7/2007 BAL TEX 9 27 0 15 0 90
9 Ramon Martinez 6/4/1990 LAD ATL 9 31 1 18 0 89
10 Sam McDowell 5/1/1968 CLE OAK 9 31 0 16 0 88
10 Pedro Martinez 5/12/2000 BOS BAL 9 29 0 15 0 88
10 Sandy Koufax 9/9/1965 LAD CHC 9 27 0 14 0 88
13 Randy Johnson 4/21/2002 ARI COL 9 31 1 17 0 87
13 Vida Blue 7/9/1971 OAK CAL 11 40 0 17 0 87
13 Dwight Gooden 9/12/1984 NYM PIT 9 32 0 16 0 87
13 Nolan Ryan 7/9/1972 CAL BOS 9 29 1 16 0 87
13 Hideo Nomo 5/25/2001 BOS TOR 9 28 0 14 0 87
13 Bobby Witt 6/23/1994 OAK KCR 9 28 0 14 0 87
19 Curt Schilling 4/7/2002 ARI MIL 9 29 2 17 0 86
19 Frank Tanana 6/21/1975 CAL TEX 9 35 0 17 0 86
19 Art Mahaffey 4/23/1961 PHI CHC 9 32 1 17 0 86
19 Roger Clemens 7/12/1997 TOR BOS 8 30 0 16 0 86
19 Dwight Gooden 9/17/1984 NYM PHI 8 30 0 16 0 86
19 Nolan Ryan 8/17/1990 TEX CHW 10 34 0 15 0 86
19 Randy Johnson 5/18/2004 ARI ATL 9 27 0 13 0 86

And unlike one-hit wonders like Ramon Martinez and Frank Tanana, Johnson has three of the top 25 games since 1954 (all as a Diamondback).

Pujols’s Sabermetric MVP history

Thursday, November 26th, 2009

Albert Pujols won his third Most Valuable Player Award from the Base Ball Writers Association of America. He also won his third Sabermetric MVP, although they haven’t been in the same years. Following is a list of our NL Sabermetric winners alongside the writers’ choices (italics denotes where the two picks differed). Pujols’s Sabermetric score and rank is also shown.

Year Sabermetric MVP score BBWAA MVP score Pujols MVP score (rank)
2001 Barry Bonds 24.13 Barry Bonds 24.13 10.93 (12)
2002 Barry Bonds 23.86 Barry Bonds 23.86 10.36 (12)
2003 Barry Bonds 18.72 Barry Bonds 18.72 14.93 (2)
2004 Barry Bonds 24.92 Barry Bonds 24.92 14.35 (3)
2005 Derrek Lee 12.57 Albert Pujols 11.93 11.93 (3)
2006 Albert Pujols 17.28 Ryan Howard 15.04 17.28 (1)
2007 David Wright 12.55 Jimmy Rollins 9.39 12.47 (3)
2008 Albert Pujols 15.30 Albert Pujols 15.30 15.30 (1)
2009 Albert Pujols 16.64 Albert Pujols 16.64 16.64 (1)

In addition to the remarkable achievement of winning three MVPs (by each standard), Pujols has finished in the top three of the Sabermetric rankings for the last seven years; he has a similar record with the writers, though they regrettably voted him ninth in 2007. Pujols’s 2009 Sabermetric MVP score was the second-best of his career and of any winner since the chemically-altered seasons of Barry Bonds:

pujols-sabermetric-mvp

Matsui deserved series MVP

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

The voters got one right: Hideki Matsui deserved the World Series MVP award.

Amongst a handful of heroic performances, Matsui’s was most valuable. Chase Utley tied Reggie Jackson’s series home-run record and Cliff Lee turned in the fourth-best fielding-independent start of all-time. But Matsui’s pounding of Phillies’ pitchers provided the most win-probability added of all players.

Matsui propelled the Bronx Bombers with a barrage of base hits, including two hope-crushing home runs off Pedro Martinez and four total in the series, in which the Yankees and Phillies tied the six-game-series record of 17 home runs (New York AL 9, Brooklyn NL 8, 1953). Matsui was responsible for three of the top 10 plays of the series:

Rk Gm Inn Out wWPA Score Batter Pitcher Description
1 4 t9 2 34% 4-4 Rodriguez Lidge Double
2 3 t5 1 21% 3-3 Damon Hamels Double
3 5 b1 0 19% 0-1 Utley Burnett Home Run
4 2 b6 2 18% 1-1 Matsui Martinez Home Run
5 2 t8 1 16% 1-3 Utley Rivera Ground Ball DP
6 3 t4 1 16% 0-3 Rodriguez Hamels Home Run
7 5 t9 0 16% 5-8 Jeter Madson Ground Ball DP
8 6 b2 0 15% 0-0 Matsui Martinez Home Run
9 6 b3 2 14% 2-1 Matsui Martinez Single
10 1 t6 1 13% 1-1 Utley Sabathia Home Run

Coming into Game 6, Lee had tallied the most WPA, mostly on the strength of his .519-WPA start in Game 1. But Matsui, who had .300 WPA through the first five games, saved his best for last and tacked on another .339 WPA in the deciding game to leapfrog over Lee:

Player G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 Total
Matsui .004 .223 .043 -.062 .092 .339 .639
Lee .519 .074 .593
Rodriguez -.096 -.090 .165 .269 .097 -.015 .330
Damon -.092 -.136 .197 .250 .078 .016 .313
Rivera .166 .020 .046 .027 .259
Utley .216 -.193 -.091 .131 .239 -.093 .209
Feliz -.101 -.076 .031 .469 -.040 -.096 .187
Marte .051 .032 .025 .040 .148
Pettitte .030 .115 .145
Sabathia .129 .003 .132
Posada -.021 .035 -.008 .128 .016 -.041 .109
Park -.011 .038 .041 .011 .079
Madson -.045 .017 .004 .057 .036 .001 .070
Eyre .044 .010 .054
Swisher -.056 .141 -.010 -.038 -.011 .026
Aceves .026 .026
Ruiz -.036 -.009 .017 -.069 -.009 .122 .016
Hinske .014 .014
Victorino -.013 -.081 .067 .027 .012 .012
Bako .000
Bastardo .000
Dobbs .000
Gaudin .000
Molina .007 -.016 -.009
Bruney -.011 -.011
Happ .014 -.034 -.020
Werth .010 -.087 .181 -.170 .026 .019 -.021
Coke -.002 -.022 -.024
Myers -.028 -.028
Burnett .357 -.387 -.030
Bruntlett -.036 -.036
Hughes -.050 .001 .008 -.041
Hairston -.026 -.010 -.010 -.046
Stairs .005 -.014 -.026 -.010 -.010 -.055
Jeter .048 -.052 -.005 .106 -.181 .022 -.062
Robertson -.098 .028 -.070
Rollins -.020 .001 .054 -.055 .039 -.091 -.072
Teixeira -.088 .088 .006 -.045 -.101 .063 -.077
Chamberlain .059 -.182 .023 -.100
Cabrera -.062 .015 -.096 .035 -.108
Durbin -.056 -.056 -.112
Francisco -.020 -.048 -.065 -.133
Gardner -.014 -.047 -.051 -.035 -.147
Blanton -.217 -.217
Ibanez -.014 -.013 -.068 -.175 .039 .011 -.220
Howard -.009 -.136 -.076 -.047 .038 -.014 -.244
Martinez -.028 -.226 -.254
Hamels -.350 -.350
Cano -.156 -.074 -.085 -.017 -.050 -.032 -.414
Lidge -.454 -.454

So while Lee and Utley were memorable in the Phillies’ losing effort, and their individual performances will likely endure longer, Matsui earned the MVP. Kudos to Godzilla — and the voters.

2009 World Series: Cumulative WPA through Game 5

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

Alex Rodriguez has apparently “learned” clutch-hitting skill after all of these years. By the way, if ARod can suddenly stop being a playoff choker, does that mean that Chase Utley could someday lose his clutch-hitting skill?

Player G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7? Total
C Lee .519 .074 .593
A Rodriguez -.096 -.090 .165 .269 .097 .345
C Utley .216 -.193 -.091 .131 .239 .302
H Matsui .004 .223 .043 -.062 .092 .300
J Damon -.092 -.136 .197 .250 .078 .297
P Feliz -.101 -.076 .031 .469 -.040 .283
M Rivera .166 .020 .046 .232
J Posada -.021 .035 -.008 .128 .016 .150
C Sabathia .129 .003 .132
D Marte .051 .032 .025 .108
R Madson -.045 .017 .004 .057 .036 .069
C Park -.011 .038 .041 .068
S Eyre .044 .044
N Swisher -.056 .141 -.010 -.038 .037
A Pettitte .030 .030
A Aceves .026 .026
J Rollins -.020 .001 .054 -.055 .039 .019
J Happ .014 .014
E Hinske .014 .014
P Bako .000
A Bastardo .000
G Dobbs .000
C Gaudin .000
S Victorino -.013 -.081 .067 .027 .000
J Molina .007 -.016 -.009
B Bruney -.011 -.011
P Coke -.002 -.022 -.024
P Martinez -.028 -.028
B Myers -.028 -.028
A Burnett .357 -.387 -.030
E Bruntlett -.036 -.036
J Hairston -.026 -.010 -.036
J Werth .010 -.087 .181 -.170 .026 -.040
P Hughes -.050 .001 .008 -.041
M Stairs .005 -.014 -.026 -.010 -.045
C Durbin -.056 -.056
B Francisco -.020 -.048 -.068
D Robertson -.098 .028 -.070
D Jeter .048 -.052 -.005 .106 -.181 -.084
C Ruiz -.036 -.009 .017 -.069 -.009 -.106
M Cabrera -.062 .015 -.096 .035 -.108
B Gardner -.014 -.047 -.051 -.112
J Chamberlain .059 -.182 -.123
M Teixeira -.088 .088 .006 -.045 -.101 -.140
J Blanton -.217 -.217
R Howard -.009 -.136 -.076 -.047 .038 -.230
R Ibanez -.014 -.013 -.068 -.175 .039 -.231
C Hamels -.350 -.350
R Cano -.156 -.074 -.085 -.017 -.050 -.382
B Lidge -.454 -.454

Stats from Fangraphs

Will band boxes lead to World Series home-run record?

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

Considering the ballparks where this year’s World Series is being played, it’s not surprising that multiple balls are flying out of the yard each game. By regular-season rates, the Yankees and Phillies are right on pace for their expected number of circuit clouts this series and could set a World Series record.

Although more sophisticated park factors normalize home-run rates by making them team-independent, such normalization isn’t necessary when estimating how many home runs the particular World Series teams might hit. Instead, let’s simply look at the number of home runs per game in the regular season, in which Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Ballpark led their respective leagues. We’ll then extrapolate how many home runs the series might have, based on the number of games played at each park (e.g., for a six-game series, three at Yankee Stadium and three at Citizens Bank):

  Regular Season World Series (Expected)
Park HR HR/G 4 games 5 games 6 games 7 games
NYY 237 2.9 5.9 5.9 8.8 11.7
PHI 207 2.6 5.1 7.7 7.7 7.7
Total 11.0 13.5 16.4 19.4

With 12 home runs between them in the four games played thus far, the Yankees and Phillies are one ahead of their regular-season rate and are now within striking distance of the record for combined home runs in a five-game series of 15 (Baltimore AL 10, Cincinnati NL 5, 1970). Although neither of the Game 5 starting pitchers, AJ Burnett and Cliff Lee, has allowed a home run in the playoffs, Burnett has a 39.2% flyball rate (11th in the league and the highest of his career since at least 2002) and Lee has a career rate of 42.3% (though only 36.5% in 2009). So unless they miss bats all night (like Lee did in Game 1), chances are decent that at least one plate appearance will end in a trot around the bases.

If the Phillies prevail tonight, the teams will eye the six-game-series record of 17 (New York AL 9, Brooklyn NL 8, 1953). The seven-game series record is 21 (San Francisco NL 14, Anaheim AL 7, 2002).*

The flip side of having so many home runs is that the series has had no triples, one of the game’s most exciting plays, and which the two host parks offer few of (Citizens Bank had the fourth-fewest in the NL , and Yankee Stadium was dead last in the AL with only 13 triples all season). If the series ends with nary a three-bagger, the Yankees and Phillies will tie the record held by several teams.

*Records courtesy of The Sporting News 2008 Baseball Record Book.