What Jeff Suppan can teach us about defense
With the Brewers and erstwhile Cardinal pitcher Jeff Suppan sending the Cardinals into the playoffs with their celebratory trademark shirt untucking (hey, thanks, guys! We suppose you’re that much closer to changing into your golf clothes), it’s fun to reminisce about the former Cardinal pitchers now toiling (and when we say toiling…!) for Milwaukee, Braden Looper and Suppan. For the purpose of this post, we’re going to focus on Suppan, in the third year of a four-year, $42 million contract that the Cardinals did not give him.
Suppan, as you will recall, had three productive years in St. Louis, providing 206 pitching runs created and turning in respectable ERAs of 4.16, 3.57 and 4.12. Then he jumped to Milwaukee and seemed to do well his first season but has appeared to stink ever since. What happened?
Let’ compare Soup’s ERAs with his expected FIP, which normalizes home-run rate based on fly balls allowed (in addition to the standard fielding-independency):
Judging by his xFIP, Suppan was probably never as good as his ERA would have led us to believe, and he’s been fairly consistent, albeit clearly in the decline phase of his career. So why did the Brewers and not the Cardinals sign him to such a contract? It’s possible that the Cardinals placed a higher value on a major contributing factor to his success: defense.
As you can see, as Suppan’s xFIP has gone up, his defense-efficiency rate — how often balls in play are converted into outs — has gone down. During his time in St. Louis, he pitched in front of a defense which, combined with some amount of “luck,” produced DERs (measured on the far-right axis) of .723, .709 and .707. Milwaukee has given him rates of .682, .699 and .686. With all other things being relatively equal (e.g., K and BB rates), Suppan traded defenses and his fielding-dependent stats show it.
As the Cardinals enter the playoffs, it’s worth noting that their defense, while exceptional in places, is only slight above-average: .696 DER (NL average: .695) and a UZR/150 of +0.9. Suppan’s decline is a reminder that the success of pitchers who live and die by their defenses can be illusory. Hopefully, Joel Pineiro and Ryan Franklin can beat the regression clock.
October 5th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Hey, maybe you should do a little research into why the Brewers untuck their shirts, you idiot. It started with Mike Cameron doing it to pay respect to his father, as he would untuck his shirt after a long day of work at a factory job. The Brewers were merely trying to support their teammate. So next time you’re going to make a backhanded comment about another team maybe you should do some research, but I guess that’s why you have a blog and not a real column.
October 5th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Thank you for your thoughtful comment. See, the thing is, it’s perhaps traditional in factory jobs to untuck your shirt at the end of the day, but in baseball, while you’re on the field, the way you respect the game (including your opponent and opponents’ fans) is to stay in uniform, shirttails tucked in. If you were honest with yourself, hopefully you could admit that the Brewers’ practice is over-the-top. If they want to untuck as soon as they enter the tunnel to the clubhouse, it’s no problem and is a fine way to pay tribute. While they’re on the field, though, it’s impudent.
I don’t have time to research it, but perhaps you can explain the irreproachable origins of the Prince Fielder “splash” scene at home plate a few weeks ago.
October 5th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
Though I will continue to defend the shirt untucking, I will by no means defend Prince Fielder’s outward display of celebration at home. I truly believe this was the event that topped all other celebrations. This has been a growing problem recently and I think the Fielder celebration really proved why, it was over the top and classless. I guess I should look at the untucking from the viewpoint of another team’s players. To me, a Brewers fan, it just looks a tribute to Cameron’s father, whereas you are probably right here, it could look like ‘let’s show up the other team’ move.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
Thanks for coming back and replying. I do appreciate you writing about the background for the Brewers’ tradition.
On the subject of the Brew Crew, do you have any thoughts about whether the Brewers should pick up Looper’s 2010 option (which increased from $6 to $6.5 mil with his 30th start)?
October 5th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
You know, I am pretty torn about it. Part of me is just sick of the Brewers signing guys just because they will make 30+ starts and give a little veteran leadership (Jeff Suppan, Looper), but on the other hand, I am not sure they have much of an other option. Gallardo will continue to improve and beyond that the Brewers are really pretty thin (as I’m sure you know). Between Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, and Braden Looper, you have a possibility of 1 good season, and 3 mediocre to bad seasons from those guys. Personally I would like to see them take a flier on a guy like Justin Duchscherer or even someone like Randy Wolf with the year he had. Your thoughts?
October 5th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
and on a side note, what do you think will transpire with Prince Fielder. Right now there are 2 camps in Milwaukee
Camp 1. Keep him, build around Prince, Braun, Gallardo etc. and just pay him what he wants.
Camp 2. Deal him now, his value is enormous (as well as his physique) and get some young starting pitching.
as much as i love to see him hit HR’s and drive in runs, I think we need young pitching right now more than anything.