Cardinals’ 2009 transactions in review (Part 1 of 2)
As fans look ahead to the trades and signings of this offseason, it may be instructive to look back at the transactions of the season recently concluded. In his second full season as general manager, John Mozeliak wasn’t afraid to shuffle the deck; with the advantage of hindsight, let’s review the team’s transactions since the end of the 2008 season. In this first part, we’ll consider moves made before opening day 2009. Because moves are often made in pairs, we’ll combine those transactions that relate to one another.
Cesar Izturis granted free agency (10/30/08)
Traded a player to be named later (Luke Gregerson) and Mark Worrell to the San Diego Padres for Khalil Greene (12/04/08)
By the end of the season, it was clear that Izturis wasn’t going to be the answer for 2009 at short. The only problem was who was the answer? The market offered a couple of high-dollar free agents in Rafael Furcal and Edgar Renteria — both signed multiple-year deals averaging at least $9 million, and several replacement-level options, but little in-between. Izturis eventually signed a two-year, $5 million deal with Baltimore and turned in a $5.8-million (1.3 WAR) season.
A month later, on the day that the Giants signed Renteria, Mozeliak broke the Cardinals’ winter silence with the Khalil Greene trade. Greene turned out to be awful, costing the team $6.5 million in salary and $3.6 million on the field, not to mention a talented righthanded reliever in Gregerson (his 2.85 xFIP would’ve led the team). Grade: F
Braden Looper granted free agency (10/30/08)
Loop was a Type-B free agent; he signed a one-year (plus option) deal with Milwaukee late in the cycle (Feb. 12). At the time, we argued that the Cardinals should’ve offered arbitration; as it turned out, he would’ve been a useful end-of-the-rotation starter. His unlucky 17.2% HR/F rate jacked up his ERA, but his xFIP was better than Todd Wellemeyer’s and on par with the group of fill-ins (Thompson, Boggs, Walters). Grade: C
Aaron Miles granted Free Agency (12/12/08)
Signed Joe Thurston as a free agent (12/17/08)
The Cardinals wisely thanked Miles and wished him well as he inked a two-year, $4.9 million deal with the Cubs. To replace him, the Cardinals signed Thurston for a tenth of that ($475,000), and he put together a $700,000 (.2 WAR) season. Miles, meanwhile was -$5.7 million. Grade: A
Russ Springer (10/30/08), Ron Villone (10/30/08), Jason Isringhausen (11/01/08), Randy Flores (12/12/08), Tyler Johnson (12/12/08) granted free agency
Signed Trever Miller (11/20/08), Royce Ring (01/06/09) and Dennys Reyes (03/05/09) as free agents
Selected Charlie Manning off waivers from the Washington Nationals (10/15/08)
The Cardinals divested their veteran relievers, overhauled the LOOGy side of their ‘pen and ultimately upgraded. Manning and Ring never materialized at the major-league level, but after his physical revealed damage to the labrum in his left shoulder, Miller was a pleasantly surprising picture of health, pitching in 74 games, and was worth $2.2 million, yielding some surplus value on his $2 million contract, which had been adjusted to only $500,000 guaranteed upon his medical news. Reyes was worth about as much ($.9 million) as he was signed for ($1 million). Springer got a good deal with the A’s ($3.3 million), and while he would’ve helped the Cardinals’ inconsistent righthanded relief corps, in the end wouldn’t have been worth it ($1.9 million value). Grade: A
Released Adam Kennedy (02/09/09)
The Kennedy release was the biggest surprise of the offseason. Evidently, Mozeliak had been unsuccessful trying to trade the unhappy second baseman. But with no clear options and $4 million in owed salary, dumping him left some people scratching their heads, including Skip Schumaker, who was unprepared to be forced into duty as his pal’s replacement. Ultimately, Schumaker would prove equal to the task, performing admirably and providing $5.4 million of value (1.2 WAR), something few thought he could do. But Kennedy resuscitated himself, putting up $7.7 million of value (1.7 WAR) for the A’s. In retrospect, Schumaker might’ve been a more valuable asset in the outfield, where Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan and Nick Stavinoha took 799 below-replacement-level plate appearances. Grade: D
Overall offseason
Credit Mozeliak with some courage and creativity. Unfortunately, his moves were too uneven to improve the Cardinals’ chances much heading into the 2009 season and necessitated other moves made in-season. Grade: C
November 11th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Hi Pip, new to the site, but I like what I see so far. A couple of points: grading a GM’s performance with the benefit of hindsight is a bit misleading. Greene was an abject disaster, of course, but few would have guessed he would be worse than Izturis or replacement level. And there was little downside risk – i.e. 1 year and he’s gone. The big miss was on mis-estimating the free agent market, where O. Cabrera and/or Hudson could have been had at less expense. Regarding the post from a couple of days back, I completely agree on the opportunity cost of Holliday. It seems pretty clear that the Cards won’t be able to compete with the major players. They should make their best offer and if it’s declined then try Cameron for 1yr/10M or 2/18. Spend the rest on extending Pujols and Wainwright and addressing 3B. But most fans will demand a courtship of Holliday from ownership to prove they’re not cheap.
November 11th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
You’re certainly right about hindsight. My own belief is that the only fair way to assess a move is at the time it’s made. This review was intended more as an attempt to learn from what actually happened, so we can improve the way we assess moves when they occur. (I probably should’ve written that!) To that end, your point about mis-estimating the FA market, particularly for infielders, is helpful. How can we use that info for this offseason?
Cameron would be an interesting signing. Fangraphs has a good post about him as an underrated option. The equation is this, I think: Cameron – in-system OF option > Outside-system 3B option – Freese.
Thank you for the kind words. I’ll try to keep your interest!
November 13th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Pip,
Thanks for the great article. Heading into the offseason we have several holes to fill in our lineup. Obviously as a 6 WAR player Matt Holliday has gotten the lion’s share of coverage. As we try to fill out our team this off season I find myself asking several questions. These questions are based on several assumptions on my part:
1) A team that gets the most people on base wins (or at least gives themselves the best chance to score runs). Let’s say two teams have the same total RAA (Runs above replacement) of their starting 9 batters. Team A has several high RAA players surrounded by multiple replacement level players. Team B has more moderate level RAA players with fewer replacement level players. Which team scores more runs? Does it make a difference?
2) The same question applies for pitchers. Would you win more games with a few low FIP studs surrounded by a few replacement level pitchers or would you be better to have more moderate level players.
3) You pay more per win for elite players. I’ve never seen this graphed but my assessment
All this falls apart in the playoffs but I guess you have to make it their first.
November 14th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Pip, I think your equation does get at the heart of things. But there are complications – I mean, the Cards have 3 major league OFs, right? Schumaker, Rasmus, Ludwick. So 2B could become involved as well. In fact, the Cards can sport a full MLB lineup without any additions:
Pujols
Lugo
Ryan
Freese
Schumaker
Rasmus
Ludwick
Molina
I wouldn’t feel confident in that as a playoff contender, but it allows for incredible flexibility. 3B seems to be the area with the most FA depth, for example. So an upgrade may be able to be made late in the offseason at a reasonable price. It depends on your confidence in Freese. I assume, btw, that LaRussa has no confidence in unproven non-veterans.
November 14th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Also, I reviewed Cot’s Baseball contracts, and I was wrong about one thing – Wainwright already has very reasonable club options thru 2013. Extended him really shouldn’t be a priority. He, Carpenter and Lohse are all signed thru at least 2012. I think what we learn from the mis-estimation of last year’s market is what mucox says: elite players cost more per WAR. I think the lesson was that if there is $20M to spend, maybe it’s better to target some combination of Cameron, Beltre, Glaus, Sheets, Smoltz, etc. Obviously, not all of them are realistic. But the type of contracts that they are likely to command could add the same WAR as Holliday + Freese + replacement players at the same near-term cost with future flexibility. But I haven’t looked at any projections to see if my instincts here are feasible.