Graph: When is the hot stove hottest?
Blogger Peter Hjort at Capitol Avenue Club yesterday tweeted what many baseball fans have been feeling: “My opinion of the hot stove season thus far: ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ…” Indeed, the activity on the MLB transaction wire has so far consisted mostly of outrightings and DL activations, with only two trades and a handful of minor signings.
So is the 2009 offseason destined to be lame, or have we simply not waited long enough? Let’s look at the free-agent signings and players traded since 2000 to see where the spikes in activity have historically been (courtesy of Retrosheet).
Happily for fans, the best is yet to be. The hot stove league is due to heat up soon, if the recent past is any indication. Come next Monday, December 7 — the last day for free agents offered salary arbitration to accept the offers — expect the bell to ring and action on the trading floor to commence. That day has traditionally been the day with the most bustle. And although the Winter Meetings may not be what they used to be, business still gets done during that week or the week after. The next burst of transactions occurs the week before Christmas, so make sure to send your wish list to Jolly John Mozeliak in time. We’ll likely see one more flash of activity in mid-January, then slowly decline toward that most pleasant of baseball holidays, Pitchers and Catchers Report Day.
December 1st, 2009 at 9:35 am
Nice work!
December 1st, 2009 at 9:51 am
Thank you, Brian! And thanks, Retrosheet.
December 2nd, 2009 at 5:52 pm
I would assume offering / accepting arbitration would be a pretty boring graph based on teams and players usually doing it on the final allowable days?
December 3rd, 2009 at 11:25 am
Yeah, you’re probably right, DaveBug. I thought about what other transaction types to show but settled on what I did for simplicity and interest. The problem with arbitration settlements is that the transaction data doesn’t track them, as far as I can tell; here’s the list of codes (from Retrosheet):
A – assigned from one team to another without compensation
C – conditional deal
Cr – returned to original team after conditional deal
D – rule 5 draft pick
Da – amateur draft pick
Df – first year draft pick
Dm – minor league draft pick
Dn – selected in amateur draft but did not sign
Dr – returned to original team after draft selection
Ds – special draft pick
Dv – amateur draft pick voided
F – free agent signing
Fa – amateur free agent signing
Fb – amateur free agent “bonus baby” signing under the 1953-57
rule requiring player to stay on ML roster
Fc – free agent compensation pick
Fg – free agent granted
Fo – free agent signing with first ML team
Fv – free agent signing voided
Hb – went on the bereavement list
Hbr – came off the bereavement list
Hd – declared ineligible
Hdr – reinistated from the ineligible list
Hf – demoted to the minor league
Hfr – promoted from the minor league
Hh – held out
Hhr – ended hold out
Hi – went on the disabled list
Hir – came off the disabled list
Hm – went into military service
Hmr – returned from military service
Hs – suspended
Hsr – reinstated after a suspension
Hu – unavailable but not on DL
Hur – returned from being unavailable
Hv – voluntarity retired
Hvr – unretired
J – jumped teams
Jr – returned to original team after jumping
L – loaned to another team
Lr – returned to original team after loan
M – obtained rights when entering into working agreement with
minor league team
Mr – rights returned when working agreement with minor league
team ended
P – purchase
Pr – returned to original team after purchase
Pv – purchase voided
R – release
T – trade
Tn – traded but refused to report
Tp – added to trade (usually because one of the original
players refused to report or retired)
Tr – returned to original team after trade
Tv – trade voided
U – unknown (could have been two separate transactions)
Vg – player assigned to league control
V – player purchased or assigned to team from league
W – waiver pick
Wf – first year waiver pick
Wr – returned to original team after waiver pick
Wv – waiver pick voided
X – expansion draft
Xp – added as expansion pick at a later date
Z – voluntarily retired
Zr – returned from voluntarily retired list