Verlander is no Bob Gibson
Wednesday, November 23rd, 2011The BBWAA selected Detroit pitcher Justin Verlander as the American League Most-Valuable Player. The last Cardinal pitcher to be voted MVP, of course, was Bob Gibson in 1968. But Justin Verlander is no Bob Gibson.
Make no mistake: Verlander had a monster year in 2011, finishing fourth among the AL’s pitchers in FIP, second in xFIP and second in WAR. Among all junior-circuit players, he ranked seventh in WAR:
| Player | WAR |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 9.4 |
| Jose Bautista | 8.3 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 8.0 |
| Ian Kinsler | 7.7 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 7.3 |
| CC Sabathia | 7.1 |
| Justin Verlander | 7.0 |
| Curtis Granderson | 7.0 |
| Alex Gordon | 6.9 |
In short, he had a super season. But the bottom line is this:
- He wasn’t the best player in his league
- He was arguably not even the best pitcher in his league
Roll back the clock then to 1968, when Gibson likewise took both the Cy Young and the MVP (and a Gold Glove, to boot). Gibson led not only the NL but all of baseball in FIP. Among all NL players, he by far led in WAR (Baseball-Reference.com version):
| Player | WAR |
| Bob Gibson | 12.2 |
| Tom Seaver | 7.4 |
| Willie McCovey | 7.1 |
| Ferguson Jenkins | 7.1 |
| Roberto Clemente | 7.1 |
| Willie Mays | 6.6 |
| Jim Wynn | 6.4 |
| Jerry Koosman | 6.3 |
| Juan Marichal | 6.2 |
| Felipe Alou | 6.1 |
In fairness, this is a bit of an apples-and-oranges comparison, since Baseball Reference calculates WAR differently from Fangraphs, our default source for WAR (including the 2011 AL numbers above). And because B-Ref uses ERA rather than FIP, Gibson gets a boost, since his minuscule ERA in 1968 — 1.12 — was even better than his FIP — 1.77 (B-Ref uses actual runs allowed to calculate WAR, rather than fielding-independent runs). But adjusting for Gibson’s FIP still leaves him above 10 WAR (by our calculations), clearly above the other pitchers, as well as Hank Aaron, who led NL hitters with 7.9 WAR in 1968. If you’re still not swayed, consider that Gibson had an outsized impact on the game, facing 1161 batters, whereas Aaron batted “only” 676 times. Verlander didn’t have nearly that disparity, facing 969 batters while Ellsbury took 732 plate appearances.
We’ll grudgingly concede the Cy Young to Verlander (though we opted for Sabathia based on his fielding-independent performance). But the MVP should be reserved for the league’s best player overall, not merely a superlative pitcher whose team reaches the playoffs. Of Verlander and Gibson, that applies only to the latter.
