Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for the 'announcements' Category

Baseball Bloggers Alliance: NL Cy Young

Monday, October 19th, 2009

Seldom does selecting the Cy Young come down to something as esoteric as regressed tRA and the debate over how important strikeouts are. Yet that is how close the 2009 season performances of Tim Lincecum, Javier Vazquez and Adam Wainwright have been. And that’s to say nothing of some other outstanding work from the likes of Dan Haren, Josh Johnson and, of course, Wainwright’s slightly older doppelganger, Chris Carpenter. The candidates themselves aren’t helpful in deciding, with Lincecum picking Carpenter, and Carpenter commending Wainwright.

Although only one of our top three is listed in the Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor, Lincecum, Vazquez and Wainwright represent the best combination of quality and quantity in the league. Before going any further, a word on our "methodology": Certainly, narrowing the field to merely three is already a big subjective assumption. When one picks a best player, he has to do so based on one or more of the following:

  1. First-person eyewitness observation
  2. Trustworthy secondhand opinions
  3. Statistics

For our part, we saw Wainwright pitch about a dozen games this past season, many outstanding. We witnessed Lincecum and Vazquez pitch only once, and each was a gem. And people we respect are supporting all three pitchers (as well as the others). So we’re left with statistics.

Unlike some mainstream writers, we’re not afraid to disclose our thought process, imperfect though it is. Our overriding preference is for statistics that attempt to represent what the pitcher himself — and not some combination of the pitcher and his teammates — did. Here are the cases for each of our top three pitchers (all ranks are within the National League):

Lincecum Vazquez Wainwright
  • 1st in strikeouts (261)
  • 1st in regressed tRA (3.31)
  • 1st in Pitching Runs Created (137)
  • 2nd in xFIP (2.94)
  • 3rd in expected outs (675)
  • 1st in xFIP (2.89)
  • 2nd in strikeouts (238)
  • 3rd in regressed tRA (3.45)
  • 4th in pitching runs created (120)
  • 1st in expected outs (705)
  • 2nd in pitching runs created (126)
  • 4th in strikeouts (212)

Wainwright’s strongest suit is leading the league in expected outs. After all, if the goal of an offense is to avoid outs, the name of the pitcher’s game is to obtain them. Wainwright did more than any other senior-circuit pitcher to that end.

The defense for Wainwright is that he is able to face more batters because he uses his defense, and therefore doesn’t have to strike out as many batters. While it’s true that Wainwright faced more batters than Lincecum, it’s not clear that preferring balls in play to strikeouts is the reason. Moreover, Lincecum used fewer pitches per inning pitched than Wainwright, anyway (15.3 to 15.5). Wainwright deserves credit for pitching to a strength, but the bottom line is that strikeouts are still a much more reliable means of obtaining outs and therefore preventing runs; even the league leader in defense-efficiency rate, Randy Wolf (.749), let a quarter of batters who hit the ball into play reach base. Strikeouts are nearly 100% effective as out-makers.

In the end, Lincecum was simply more dominant than Wainwright when he pitched, and was dominant enough to make up for the amount of outs the Wainwright created: More quality and only slightly less quantity.

National League Cy Young: Tim Lincecum (Javier Vazquez, 2nd; Adam Wainwright, 3rd)

“Cardinals and the Division Championship Series” survey

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

We created a “Cardinals and the Division Championship Series” survey. Please take a minute to fill it out. We’ll post results at the end of the regular season.

Click Here to take survey

Twitter and game hash tags

Saturday, February 28th, 2009

With the advent of the Twitter age, we’re going to try to post tweets by individual games this season. Starting with spring-training games, we’re adding a “hash tag” to game-specific tweets so that fans everywhere can read and provide commentary on individual games. You can read all of the related posts using Twitter’s search or by going to another aggregator, such as hashtags.org. We’re still experimenting with the syntax, but right now the plan is to go with the following format:

  • yymmdd{3-letter visiting-team abbreviation}{3-letter home-team abbreviation}

So, for instance, yesterday’s game in which the Cardinals played the Mets was #090227slnnyn. Today’s game vs. the Nationals is #090228wassln.

Please let us know if you have any other ideas on syntax or question on how this works.

Three-letter team codes used by MLB Gameday:

National League American League
East Central West East Central West
phi chn lan tba cws ana
nyn mil ari bos min tex
flo hou col nya cle oak
atl sln sfn tor kca sea
was cin sdn bal det
pit

Bob Broeg Chapter agrees on research, trivia incentives; looks at 1972 A’s

Wednesday, February 18th, 2009

Posted on behalf of Jim Rygelski, Bob Broeg SABR Chapter President

Twenty-five people attended the monthly roundtable of the Bob Broeg SABR Chapter on Monday, Feb. 16, at Crusoe’s Restaurant in South St. Louis.

New business: Chapter president Jim Rygelski announced a research incentive program starting in March. People who give research presentations at the 2009 meetings can submit copy (preferably in an e-file that can be posted on the chapter’s blog) for a contest whose winners will be determined by the chapter board at the end of the year. There will be two categories: one for those who’ve made research presentations in the past and another for those who’ve never made a presentation before. At the end of the year, the board will choose first- and second-place winners in each category, with the top prize $50 and second place $25.

Also starting in March, the person who submits the monthly trivia quiz (preferably 20-25 questions) will receive a $10 gift certificate to Crusoe’s, while the person winning that month’s contest — which is decided right before the meeting adjourns — will also win a $10 Crusoe’s gift certificate. Since the incentive is meant to encourage as many participants as possible, especially new ones, people will be eligible for the prize once every four months, though everyone can take the quiz each month. 

In other  new business, the membership was open to the occasional scheduling of Tuesday roundtables in the second half of 2009. Some members have said they can’t attend Mondays and asked if Tuesdays were possible. In years past the Bob Broeg Chapter occasionally met on Tuesdays.

Research presentations: Bob Tiemann spoke on the 1972 Oakland Athletics, the first of three A’s teams to win consecutive World Series titles. Bob lived in the Oakland area during that time and attended several games.

Book report: Jim Rygelski discussed David Halberstam’s 1989 book “Summer of ‘49.” Jim is encouraging members to discuss a favorite baseball book — contemporary or published long ago and including fiction — at future meetings.

Discussion items: Members had a series of lively discussions on several topics. There was no clear consensus on who will win the Cardinals’ second base merry-go-round — other than it will not be Skip Schumaker. There was agreement that Cardinals’ management for too many years has not viewed second base as an important position. Some members also decried manager Tony La Russa’s seeming indifference to fielding a great defensive team while emphasizing the offense.

Members disagreed over Albert Pujols’ recently reported statements that he’d consider going elsewhere when his current contract runs out if Cardinals’ management isn’t intent on fielding a winning team. Some wondered if it was an early warning that he intended to go elsewhere anyway while others thought he was giving management a wakeup call. Some members estimated that Pujols will be worth $30 million a year somewhere — if the economy rebounds by that time. One member said that Pujols might not be expressing himself as clearly as he would like because of his lack of command of English.

There was no clear consensus on a closer, and some speculated that the Cardinals might try a closer by committee. Again, some members lamented the fact that current Cardinals’ management has never gone out and spent big bucks for an impact free agent. However, membership dismissed Pujols’ stated desire that the club sign free agent Manny Ramirez.

The group also briefly discussed a recent Sporting News article that called for all major league sports to discard their all-star games. Among its reasons, SN said that online voting, player disinterest and the emerging meaninglessness of all-star games made them archaic. The group didn’t endorse that sentiment but lamented that baseball players didn’t seem to take the all-star game as seriously as they once did.

Trivia quiz: Vic Witte won the trivia quiz, which Bob Tiemann had assembled.

Next meeting: Monday, March, 16, will be the next roundtable, at Crusoe’s, Compton and Osceola in South St. Louis. Dinner from 5:30 p.m. on, with the business portion starting about 6:45 and the meeting adjourning about 8:30. Reservations unnecessary; just bring an appetite for good food and excellent baseball discussion.

SABR February Roundtable: Next Monday

Wednesday, February 11th, 2009

The Bob Broeg SABR Chapter’s first roundtable meeting of 2009 will be next Monday, Feb. 16, at the usual spot: wonderful Crusoe’s Restaurant at Compton and Osceola in beautiful South St. Louis. Dinner is from 5:30 or so, with the meeting starting at 6:45pm.

See Chapter Meetings and Events for more info.