Baseball Bloggers Alliance: NL Cy Young
Monday, October 19th, 2009Seldom does selecting the Cy Young come down to something as esoteric as regressed tRA and the debate over how important strikeouts are. Yet that is how close the 2009 season performances of Tim Lincecum, Javier Vazquez and Adam Wainwright have been. And that’s to say nothing of some other outstanding work from the likes of Dan Haren, Josh Johnson and, of course, Wainwright’s slightly older doppelganger, Chris Carpenter. The candidates themselves aren’t helpful in deciding, with Lincecum picking Carpenter, and Carpenter commending Wainwright.
Although only one of our top three is listed in the Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor, Lincecum, Vazquez and Wainwright represent the best combination of quality and quantity in the league. Before going any further, a word on our "methodology": Certainly, narrowing the field to merely three is already a big subjective assumption. When one picks a best player, he has to do so based on one or more of the following:
- First-person eyewitness observation
- Trustworthy secondhand opinions
- Statistics
For our part, we saw Wainwright pitch about a dozen games this past season, many outstanding. We witnessed Lincecum and Vazquez pitch only once, and each was a gem. And people we respect are supporting all three pitchers (as well as the others). So we’re left with statistics.
Unlike some mainstream writers, we’re not afraid to disclose our thought process, imperfect though it is. Our overriding preference is for statistics that attempt to represent what the pitcher himself — and not some combination of the pitcher and his teammates — did. Here are the cases for each of our top three pitchers (all ranks are within the National League):
| Lincecum | Vazquez | Wainwright |
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Wainwright’s strongest suit is leading the league in expected outs. After all, if the goal of an offense is to avoid outs, the name of the pitcher’s game is to obtain them. Wainwright did more than any other senior-circuit pitcher to that end.
The defense for Wainwright is that he is able to face more batters because he uses his defense, and therefore doesn’t have to strike out as many batters. While it’s true that Wainwright faced more batters than Lincecum, it’s not clear that preferring balls in play to strikeouts is the reason. Moreover, Lincecum used fewer pitches per inning pitched than Wainwright, anyway (15.3 to 15.5). Wainwright deserves credit for pitching to a strength, but the bottom line is that strikeouts are still a much more reliable means of obtaining outs and therefore preventing runs; even the league leader in defense-efficiency rate, Randy Wolf (.749), let a quarter of batters who hit the ball into play reach base. Strikeouts are nearly 100% effective as out-makers.
In the end, Lincecum was simply more dominant than Wainwright when he pitched, and was dominant enough to make up for the amount of outs the Wainwright created: More quality and only slightly less quantity.
National League Cy Young: Tim Lincecum (Javier Vazquez, 2nd; Adam Wainwright, 3rd)
