Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

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Around the horn: Offense in perspective

Friday, July 30th, 2010

Is the Cardinal offense worse than it was last year? Judging by Bernie Miklasz’s lament that the team needs to "fix the dang offense," you might think so. But check out the numbers:

  • 2009: .325 wOBA, 8th place in NL
  • 2010: .325 wOBA, 7th place in NL

Certainly, the offense is something less than the pride of the NL, but the same offense was good enough to win the division last year. And with two of their biggest producers having spent significant time on the DL — David Freese and Ryan Ludwick — criticism is a bit unwarranted.

Whereas Miklasz feels that "the most glaring weakness with the 2010 Cardinals is their dull offense," the worst component, by league rank, anyway, is the bullpen, which is third-worst in xFIP. So is the effort to strengthen the starting pitching misguided? After all, the starting pitchers lead the league in xFIP. But look a little deeper, and you’ll see that the Cardinal starters are only fifth in the league in innings pitched per start, at around six. so while the innings that they do pitch are high quality, the lack of quantity exerts additional pressure on the pen, which, perhaps combined with some mismanagement, may contribute to the pen’s lackluster performance. So it’s still reasonable to figure that improving the rotation will improve the team’s true weakness, the bullpen.

Wither Westbrook?
Jayson Stark reported Friday that the Cardinals "have made Cleveland Indians pitcher Jake Westbrook their No. 1 target leading into the trade deadline." After missing out on seemingly doable deals for Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt, the Cardinals are apparently "going in a different direction." In our opinion, the club needs to be careful not to overpay for a far inferior pitcher in order to not come away emptyhanded at the trade deadline. If the team wasn’t willing to pay for top talent, it needs to resist the temptation to join the fray after they’ve missed the boat. Better to wait for the next boat — as in the winter — than to do something rash as a reaction to a market they misread.

Look at me, I can be centerfield
Tony La Russa has lately given Colby Rasmus more time on the pine than on the turf. The opening-day centerfielder has started only one of the last five games, prompting Derrick Goold to ask whether Jon Jay, who has gotten the nod over Rasmus, is the better bet. It’s true that Jay has been hot since his recall. But this is a small-sample-size alert if ever there was one. Jay boasts a heady .435 wOBA, better than Rasmus’s .368, but has about a third as many plate appearances (122 to 342). To his credit, Jay has exhibited some decent plate discipline, bettering Rasmus in contact rate and swing rate. All the same, Jay has also benefited from a slightly higher platoon advantage, facing righties 82% of the time (Rasmus: 76%). That means that Rasmus has had 60 more plate appearances against lefties, no small disadvantage. The more apt question might instead be “Jay or Ludwick?”

Fishpower beats deerpower
Carp out to continue dominance of Bucs — MLB headline

Come on, Big Z isn’t that fat
Howry’s release makes room for Zambrano — ESPN headline

He’d like his money back
Phils’ Moyer hopes to return this season — ESPN headline

Takes wrist, ball and goes home
Brewers’ Hart leaves with injured wrist — ESPN headline

Special edition of "The Bachelor"
Capps happy for opportunity with contending Twins — AP headline

Vincent Van Gold chain
Tonight is Vince Coleman Bobblehead night at Busch Stadium. Coleman himself was on-hand to provide the pregame action, being interviewed on the field. We espied him in the press lobby, and, though he appears to have added some girth, his look remains relatively unchanged from his playing days. That is, he sported a v-neck t-shirt which nattily complemented his ubiquitous gold chain. It’s reassuring to know that in this world of change, some things remain as they were in 1985.

Around the horn: Winter Meetings wrapup

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

Without a splashy signing or trade this week at the Winter Meetings, the Cardinals have generated headlines by pursuing erstwhile Rockies’ reliever Brian Fuentes. Derrick Goold quotes manager Tony La Russa as saying that getting a closer is "the No. 1 priority." We know that a lot has happened this week, but we must have missed the announcements that the Cardinals had signed a starting pitcher and acquired a new second baseman.

With the team having other more pressing needs, we’re not sure that just because the Cardinals can sign Fuentes that they should. After all, Jeff Gordon suspects that the asking price could be high:

If the Anaheim Angels get really interested in having him replace K-Rod, the bidding could go high -– three years, $33 million or more — but this is the guy the Cards have to sign.

If that’s the case, then the answer is simple: no. Given that Fuentes is probably not worth much more than $3.75 million (according to JC Bradbury), that the Cardinals currently have one to two spots in their rotation that need to be filled (Marcel projects Pineiro to pitch 130 innings, and not particularly well) and are planning (publicly, anyway) to go with a second baseman projected to have a .231 GPA, the Cardinals shouldn’t be wasting their money on that mysterious thing known as a "closer." Oh, and did we mention that the Cardinals would have to surrender draft picks for the privilege?

It’s not that Fuentes isn’t a capable reliever. His 3.25 xFIP in 2008 was one of the best in the league. But, after Gordon claims that "this is the guy the Cards have to sign," in the next sentence admits he’s no "lockdown closer." Indeed, his projected 3.69 FIP is helpful, but not $10+ million helpful. Not when the Cardinals have more innings to be pitched.

Clearing the record
You’ve gotta love how, less than a year and a half after being discovered as a cheat, Rick Ankiel’s standard bio ‘graf has been whitewashed of his misdeed, as MLB.com’s Bill Chastain demonstrates at the end of his short article on the Rays’ interest in the Cardinal center fielder:

Ankiel, 29, bats and throws left-handed. He hit.264 with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs for the Cardinals in 2008. Once a promising pitcher — he experienced a highly publicized control ordeal before returning to the Minor Leagues and changing positions. Ankiel has one of the best arms in baseball and can play right or center field.

It’s as if Ankiel’s secretly taking HGH, lying about never receiving it from Signature pharmacy, and subsequently pretending it was for an injury — arguably an important tidbit in his career — never happened. Aren’t baseball fans supposed to have long memories? At any rate, if Ankiel is indeed being shopped, we at least appreciate the media’s repetition of that specious claim of his having "one of best arms in baseball." Ankiel may have a strong arm, but as we’ve noted, it doesn’t translate into especially good overall defense. But the Cardinals are grateful for the free advertising. On second thought, perhaps Chastain is a Redbird fan.

McGwire’s "integrity"
Speaking of MLB writers who may not report the more indecorous facts, beat reporter Matthew Leach starts to tell the story about Mark McGwire in his article on the former Cardinal slugger’s Hall of Fame merits, but scratches only the surface:

McGwire has admitted taking androstenedione, a steroid precursor, but nothing stiffer than that. He retired before steroid testing came to baseball. He was accused of steroid use in Jose Canseco’s tell-all book, "Juiced," however. And when he testified before Congress in the spring of 2006, McGwire delivered a performance that disappointed even his staunchest defenders.

Uh, to say that McGwire was merely accused of use is akin to saying Rod Blagojevich is only suspected of impropriety. Back in 2005, the New York Daily News reported that McGwire was using "the cocktail of a hardcore steroids user." But writers aren’t the only ones overlooking the obvious, as Tony La Russa shows, according to Derrick Goold:

“This steroid issue, that’s a matter of integrity, right?” La Russa said. “That’s one way to describe it, right? Well, it occurred to me, I know that I’ve never spoken much about it at all, but this guy did something that screams integrity. … How many guys do we know that had a contract like he had? He had a contract in his hand for $15 million over two years, and he walked away from it because he didn’t feel like he could play to that level. That, to me, there’s a certain integrity for the sport, for self-respect and everything.”

Unfortunately, McGwire also did something that screams an utter lack of integrity. This kind of dissembling is disrespectful to fans and La Russa should be ashamed of himself for it. La Russa may make some money lawyering after he retires from baseball, but for now, he’s getting paid to manage and not represent disgraced heroes.

Out of the park
SABR’s Baseball Biography Project has recently posted four new articles on old ballparks in St. Louis, all by the Bob Broeg Chapter’s own Joan Thomas:

  • Red Stockings Park
  • Union Base Ball Park
  • Federal League Park
  • Robison Field

Speaking of the Bob Broeg Chapter, in case you can’t get enough baseball discussion (perhaps you missed the UCB’s radio show this past Wednesday!), you’re welcome to attend the chapter’s December roundtable meeting this coming Monday, Dec. 15, at Crusoe’s, Osceola and Compton, in beautiful South St. Louis. As always, dinner is from roughly 5:30 on, with the meeting formally starting at 6:45. Join us; you may even get to chat with Joan.

Missed draft picks
For those scoring at home, it turns out that the Tigers made the wrong call in not offering arbitration to Edgar Renteria, who signed a two-year deal with the Giants. And with Kerry Wood signing an incredible two-year deal with Cleveland, proving that concerns over belt-tightening were precipitous, the Cubs lost out on a pick, as well. The Angels, on the other end of the spectrum, took a slight chance in offering Francisco Rodriguez arbitration, inasmuch as he’s only worth about $5 million (according to JC Bradbury), and will have some Met draft picks in 2009.

News of the tautological
Executives at winter meetings expect economy to affect game — Post-Dispatch headline

"It’s gonna be just like the ‘76 tour with the Dead, man!"

Red Sox unveil ‘retro roadies’ — MLB.com headline

Could you be more specific?
Izturis looks like the guy — Baltimore Sun headline

Easy for you to say
Three-team blockbuster nets Mets Putz — MLB.com headline

Breaking news from 1960
Cardinals committed to Kennedy — MLB.com headline

Creative negotiations: It beats turkey when it comes to closing the sale
Brewers finalize deal with Lamb — MLB.com headline

Bottom stories of the week

Law on the Cardinals
The newly associated (as in Baseball Writers Association of America) Keith Law held forth on the Winter Meetings in his online chat Thursday and responded to a couple of inquiries about the Cardinals’ centerfield situation:

Kevin (STL): Should Ankiel be dealt?

Keith Law: (2:04 PM ET ) I’m not sure what the urgency is, but if it’s just about clearing a spot for Rasmus, I hope they get full value for him. You could always slide Ankiel to a corner and trade Ludwick, who is all downside after the huge year.

And later:

Grant (The Lou): You mention Colby Rasmus earlier. What is his upper potential? Grady Sizemore w a bit less pop?

Keith Law: (2:24 PM ET ) More pop, less defense. Perfect world projection, to borrow a phrase from Kevin Goldstein.

Later in the chat, Law provided his view of the team’s top priority:

Pip (St. Louis): Tony La Russa says the Cardinals’ #1 priority is a closer (read: Fuentes). What do *you* think their #1 should be?

Keith Law: (2:14 PM ET ) A second baseman with some pop. But I don’t think signing a closer/good reliever is a bad idea. They’re sneaky-good for ‘09, especially if Carpenter can add 20-25 starts.

We’ll take "sneaky-good." By the way, who does this wiseguy "Pip" think he is questioning the value of free-agent closers?

Around the horn: Cardinals don’t need an outfielder

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

With free-agent-to-be Pat Burrell receiving some exposure this month in the playoffs, some Cardinal fans have expressed their interest in the Phillies’ left fielder. But do the Cardinals need to pursue an outfielder this offseason? Probably not, if the production from their outfield cadre in 2008 is any indication. Cardinal outfielders ranked first in the league in total Runs Created (ESPN version):

Team LF RF CF Total
St. Louis 93.6 126.2 115.1 334.9
Colorado 139.2 114.2 71.7 325.1
Pittsburgh 115.4 95.3 107.3 317.9
Milwaukee 119.2 90.9 96.5 306.6
Chicago Cubs 119.0 80.5 106.2 305.7
LA Dodgers 106.1 130.2 68.9 305.2
Philadelphia 107.9 85.7 109.7 303.3
San Diego 85.9 103.5 106.5 295.9
NY Mets 83.5 91.3 113.4 288.2
San Francisco 92.0 110.2 83.1 285.4
NL 98.7 95.0 90.9 284.6
MLB 94.3 97.9 88.9 281.1
AL 89.7 100.7 86.2 276.7
Cincinnati 105.1 89.0 78.9 273.0
Houston 118.6 92.5 59.8 270.9
Florida 100.7 81.8 83.3 265.8
Arizona 73.7 89.3 87.7 250.6
Atlanta 71.9 66.0 89.3 227.2
Washington 59.1 80.9 86.7 226.6

The team controls all but one of their outfielders. Ryan Ludwick figures to be an interesting but not exorbitantly expensive arbitration case, if it gets that far. Rick Ankiel shouldn’t break the bank. Essentially, the team has three players who can play centerfield reasonably well (Skip Schumaker, Ludwick and Ankiel are similarly adept). Adding Joe Mather and/or Brian Barton, and the big "if" Chris Duncan provides depth that affords the luxury of Colby Rasmus’s further minor-league development. The question, of course, is whether it’s reasonable to assume that the same group of outfielders can repeat its 2008 production. Even given a slight decline in Ludwick’s performance, it’s reasonable to expect that, on the whole, the group will at least come within 10% of last year’s work. And if that’s the case, outfield probably isn’t the first place John Mozeliak should start when looking for outside help.

Speaking of Burrell and the Phillies: If they win the Series, it will be the beginning of a strong case that the National League has turned the tide and can no longer be considered the weaker league. Anothe bit of evidence: The NL’s outfields were more productive than the AL’s.

Is Peavy worth it?
Whether the Cardinals could or even want to trade for Jake Peavy is still academic. But for reference, we thought we’d check to see if he’s even worth it. Let’s compare his contract with his projected MORP (Market Value Over Replacement Player):

Year Age Salary MORP
2009 28 $11,000,000 $20,225,000
2010 29 $15,000,000 $18,725,000
2011 30 $16,000,000 $15,175,000
2012 31 $17,000,000 $14,000,000
2013 32 $22,000,000 $14,525,000
$81,000,000 $82,650,000

Since MORP measures value over replacement player, who still costs at least league minimum, Peavy’s existing contract represents a good value. Whether it’s a good value for the Padres or the Cardinals — or someone else — remains to be seen.

You can stuff your sorries in a sack
Upon the Cardinals’ buyout of his 2009 option, Mark Mulder cried some crocodile tears. "I would have given up anything to have done well in that city and with that team," the Post-Dispatch quoted him as saying. The not-yet-cynical among us will appreciate Mulder’s seemingly magnanimous comments. But we’ve heard it before, and, after all, this is a guy who doesn’t have a contract for next year and presumably would like to work again in baseball. It’s hard to believe Mulder is all that sincere, when he just accepted $1.5 from the Cardinals for his option year. How about you just return the money (after paying your agent’s cut) and we’ll call it, well, "even" is a bit much. Let’s just say we’ll let you be a by-gone, Mark.

But do they like like him?
Brewers seem to like Macha — Journal-Sentinel headline

Their work here on earth is finished
Angels to bring back Vlad, P Lackey — SI.com headline

Things we’d rather not have explained
Maddon skeptical of explanation of Blanton’s cap stain — St. Petersburg Times headline

News of the tautological
Several factors affect White Sox in free agency — Chicago Tribune headline

"Hey, we’ve seen that year before!"
Players recognize Pujols’ monster year — MLB.com headline

Bottom stories of the week:

The end of baseball as we know it
Does Bug Selig have a death wish for Major League Baseball? We understand that he’s old and probably wants to cash in now on some fame, but his short-sighted decisions to first televise only half of the league-championship games on a broadcast network and to then have every World Series game played no earlier than 7:30pm Central time (among other things) are dooming the national pastime to a lack of future fan base. Andy McCarthy explains (hat tip: Double-M):

What is wrong with baseball? I have a 6-year-old who fell in love with the game this year. All he wanted to do was watch some of the World Series, which just f-i-n-a-l-l-y started a few minutes ago. It’s a school night. I told him he could watch an inning, then I cut it to a batter, then, eventually, just the first pitch. Why? Because we sat through 15 minutes of commercials waiting for the game to start.

Baseball has allowed television to take over the post-season. I am a nut for the game, and I gave up in the fourth inning of Game 7 between the Rays and the Sox the other night — I couldn’t stay awake through the extended commercial breaks between innings. A few years back, I gave up Monday Night Football for the same reason.

No more day games in the World Series, they don’t start to play til after 830pm Eastern, and the games take 4 hours to play. If your team’s not in it, who can watch that? What kids — y’know, the people the game has to hook if it’s going to sustain its fat paydays — can stay up for that?

I finally got so aggravated, I turned it off. I’m a junkie, so of course I’ll eventually turn it back on, but not tonight. And if they make me, a die-hard fan, feel that way, how can they possibly hold normal people who have plenty of other things they’d just as soon be doing?

Alas, we suppose McCarthy’s argument is far too logical for Bud Selig. And we don’t care what your politics are, this story has to bother any self-respecting American:

Barack Obama might have the power to move the World Series by a few minutes.

To accommodate a half-hour Obama time buy on Fox on Oct. 29, Major League Baseball has agreed to move the start time of World Series Game 6 by about 15 minutes. That would move the start of the game from 8:20 p.m. ET or so to 8:35 p.m. “Fox will accommodate Senator Obama’s desire to communicate with voters in this longform format,” Fox Sports said in a statement. “We are pleased that Major League Baseball has agreed to delay the first pitch of World Series Game 6 for a few minutes in order for Fox to carry his program on Oct. 29. If requested, the network would be willing to make similar time available to Senator McCain’s campaign.”

Audacity of hope, indeed! (And so much for Fox being a conservative pawn.) No matter whether Obama or McCain gets elected president next week, Americans will have a choice in getting rid of him in four years. Would that Americans had the same option for the Commissioner of Baseball.

Week in review: Spot starting

Monday, August 18th, 2008

Spot-starter extraordinaire Brad Thompson once again rescued the Cardinals with a fine fill-in performance Saturday, this time for perennially disabled Chris Carpenter. Thompson deserves credit simply for being available to answer the bell: He’s spot started — which we define as "a start that was preceded and followed by something other than a major-league start" (so he either next appeared in relief or in the minor leagues) — five times in his career, the most of any Cardinal pitcher since 2004. And other than Al Reyes, who made only two spot starts, Thompson has been the best spot starter (by highest-average FIGS). Here are the team’s spot starts since 2004 by FIGS:

Date Opp Starter BF HR BB SO FIGS
06/19/07 KC Thompson 29 0 0 3 66
06/24/07 PHI Wells 21 0 2 5 63
10/03/04 MIL Flores 13 0 0 2 58
06/19/08 KC Thompson 19 0 0 1 58
10/01/04 MIL AlReyes 6 0 0 3 58
08/09/05 atMIL AnReyes 22 1 1 5 57
08/28/05 atWAS Eldred 12 0 1 2 56
09/30/07 atPIT Percival 4 0 0 2 55
09/25/04 atCIN AlReyes 9 0 0 1 55
09/22/06 atHOU Narveson 15 1 2 6 55
08/18/08 atCIN Thompson 19 1 1 4 54
05/24/06 atSF Thompson 10 0 0 0 53
09/06/07 PIT Maroth 13 0 2 1 52
07/09/08 atPHI Mulder 3 0 2 1 49
09/09/07 atARI Thompson 10 1 0 1 47
07/20/08 SD Garcia 20 2 1 4 47
07/25/08 atNYM Boggs 24 1 4 1 44
06/10/04 atCHC Haren 23 1 3 0 44
09/13/07 atCIN Wells 28 1 6 2 43
09/12/07 atCIN AnReyes 16 2 2 1 37

With the team increasingly needing spot starters, going from needing only four in 2004 and two each in 2005 and 2006 to seven in 2007 and already five this season, Thompson provides a valuable, if unheralded, service. Being a reliable spot starter is a bit like being a good pinch hitter, so perhaps Thompson will be able to break through the glass ceiling on his career or find freedom like another occasional spot starter, Anthony Reyes.

Lesson learned?
Suffice it to say that, without having to face Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn, the Cardinals had a much easier time taking two of three in Cincinnati last weekend. Erstwhile Cardinals’ and current Reds’ GM Walt Jocketty dealt the two sluggers in separate trades a couple of weeks ago, divesting the team’s two longest-tenured players (probably unwisely so in Dunn’s case). In St. Louis, Jocketty’s penchant was to trade the other way, sending prospects for veterans, and to re-sign or extend contracts of veterans (e.g., Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Jim Edmonds) before they could leave as free agents. Has Jocketty learned his lesson? Possibly. It’s more likely that a) the Reds are in a different place from the 2004-era Cardinals, and b) not having presided over the Reds very long, he’s not emotionally invested in the players yet. The situation with the Reds is more akin to 1995, when Jocketty took over as the Cardinals’ GM and jettisoned vets like Todd Zeile and Bernard Gilkey (and, it should be noted, got very little in return). The Cardinals won the division within a season of Jocketty taking over. Will the Reds respond similarly?

2006 Cardinals, revisited
Speaking of the halcyon Jocketty years, THT’s Brandon Isleib schedule-normalized the results of some recent seasons (that is, with interleague and weighted-division play factored out) and found that the 2006 Cardinals were perhaps not as mediocre as their regular-season record indicated:

Two obvious oddities: the Pirates of the Lloyd McClendon era feasibly having a winning record (they were .567 against the NL East and .533 against the NL West, but only .416 against the NL Central), and the Cardinals coming off as not a bad team, mainly off their ridiculous .676 against the NL West. Once the Cards stopped facing their own division, they were actually pretty good, a bias that could partly explain the postseason success that few predicted for them.

Russ Springer, ROOGy?
In last Thursday’s game, Russ Springer faced one batter, a righty (Jorge Cantu), and struck him out. It seems that Springer has been used less lately as a traditional middle-reliever and more as a situational righty, aka ROOGy (Righthanded One-Out Guy). And, indeed, this season Springer is among the league leaders in fewest innings per game (min. 20 IP), "better" than many LOOGys, including the Cardinals’ own Ron Villone:

Th Pitcher Team GP IP BB SO ERA IP/G
L Royce Ring ATL 42 22 1/3 10 16 8.46 0.53
L Joe Beimel LAD 54 34 1/3 16 21 1.83 0.64
L Randy Flores STL 37 23 2/3 17 15 4.56 0.64
L Pedro Feliciano NYM 65 45 1/3 21 43 3.57 0.70
L Jack Taschner SFO 56 40 16 33 4.05 0.71
L Neal Cotts CHC 35 25 10 31 2.88 0.71
L Wesley Wright HOU 59 43 2/3 26 38 4.33 0.74
R Russ Springer STL 53 39 1/3 13 37 2.06 0.74
L Brian Shouse MIL 55 41 12 28 2.41 0.75
L Ron Villone STL 53 41 30 41 5.05 0.77
L Doug Slaten ARI 37 28 2/3 11 15 4.4 0.77
L Charlie Manning WAS 40 31 24 27 5.23 0.78
L Will Ohman ATL 64 50 19 47 2.88 0.78
L J.C. Romero PHI 61 47 2/3 28 38 2.27 0.78
R Joe Smith NYM 61 48 2/3 22 37 4.25 0.80
L Bill Bray CIN 49 40 20 43 2.7 0.82
L Scott Schoeneweis NYM 56 46 2/3 18 26 3.09 0.83
R Tyler Walker SFO 51 43 2/3 16 38 4.95 0.86
R Matt Lindstrom FLA 49 42 1/3 19 35 3.19 0.86
R Juan Cruz ARI 42 36 1/3 25 55 2.97 0.87

Whether La Runcan is saving the big righty’s arm or intentionally trying to limit his exposure to lefties, it’s working. Springer is facing about 63% righthanders, who have a measely .178 GPA against him this year. Compare that to lefties, who have a .259 GPA. That’s a platoon split worth considering.

As others see us
We attended five of the six games in which the Phillies were in town, and in four of those games, So Taguchi received a standing ovation from the Busch Stadium crowd. The experience wasn’t lost on fellow Phillie (we’re really resisting the urge to write "phellow" there) Jimmy Rollins, who created a bit of a kerfuffle with his comments on the Best Damn Sports Show Period about being dissed by the city of brotherly love:

Rollins: … for example, Ryan’s from St. Louis. You know, St. Louis, it seems like they support their team. They’re out there, and they’re encouraging. And in Philly, you can’t be no punk.

As we’ve been noticing, though, it increasingly seems that St. Louisans support former players visiting as opponents more than they loyally suport their own current players. It’s a perverse condition, since, well, it’s the fact that the player once played for the very team that the fans are supposed to be supporting that distinguishes him as a player to cheer for. Rather than being known as the best fans in baseball, St. Louisans should be known as the most sycophantic fans for the opponent in baseball. After all, just ask Jason Isringhausen if you can’t be no punk.

Around the horn: Playing the hand you’re dealt

Friday, March 28th, 2008

Bye-ku for Juan Gonzalez

Tony likes ‘roiders
So Igor got the invite
Good thing his ab’s bad.

It’s that time of year, time when, with almost all the cards dealt, you play the hand you have. The Cardinals, but for the not-minor detail of whom their last infielder will be, are fairly well settled now, what with the Reyes kerfuffle nearly resolved (or is it only beginning — again?). The team has survived its most tumultuous offseason since Tony La Russa took the reins back in 1996: Consider that, heading into the winter, the team didn’t know whether its manager was coming back, it had a different general manager at the helm, the pitching staff was a huge unknown and the players of record at centerfield, shortstop and third base — three of its most regular players over the last three years, with 20% of the team’s win shares between them over that period– were coming back (at least two of whom, anyway) under uncertain and tenuous circumstances. Since then, Tony La Russa — for better or worse — re-upped for another two seasons (theoretically), and John Mozeliak took over for the ousted Jocketty and, if he didn’t pull off a fullscale renovation, conducted a facelift so deftly that it’s easy to overlook the impact.

Going back to what we called his winter shopping list:

  • Leadoff man with at least a .350 OBP
  • Righthanded platoon partner for Adam Kennedy
  • Young pitching
  • Nothing stupid

On the first item, with Skip Schumaker — whose most bullish OBP projection is .339 (Marcel) — getting the initial nod as leadoff man, the team would appear to have missed the mark. Still it’s not as bad as it might’ve been (or still could be) if Kennedy, Cesar Izturis or Rick Ankiel had been tapped (or as bad as some NL Central opponents — see below). Speaking of Kennedy, a platoon partner may still be in the offing if Brendan Ryan comes back healthy and Kennedy struggles. We hate to root against a player succeeding, but a slow April from Kennedy may be the only thing that triggers a platoon.

So pitching, then. After much virtual gnashing of teeth among the scribbling class, the team waited out the market and got Kyle Lohse for a favorable deal, perhaps even the best buy of this offseason’s free-agent pitchers. The team locked up its best young pitcher, Adam Wainwright (something we actually asked Mo about more than a year ago), and didn’t sign any aged free agents. And Mozeliak didn’t deal Iron Cap, though we wonder if it was more out of inability due to LaRuncan depressing his value that from a true sense of wanting to keep him. (Plus, it still may be that a trade is in Reyes’s own best interests.) But the team’s GM didn’t overspend (if the silly contract extension to Pineiro was the worst, that’s pretty good).

Interestingly enough, Mozeliak cobbled together a group that supports the team’s ongoing claim that 2008 will not be a rebuilding year, at least not at the outset. Colby Rasmus will get at least a half season at Triple-A, as will the team’s best pitching prospects (save Kyle McClellan). Mozeliak was even somehow was able to get value (see poll) for Scott Rolen in Troy Glaus at a time when La Russa’s mouth had sunken Rolen’s trade value to new depths. The scuttled negotiations with David Eckstein, which resulted in Cesar Izturis, was one of the few indiscretions of the team’s offseason. With the season backweighted with possible returns of star pitchers and of Rasmus, the best is perhaps yet to come — and the team has put itself in a position to compete on Opening Day, to boot. All things considered, the Cardinals not only survived a long offseason but are coming out a better team than when they went in.

Grass is greener?
It’s often instructive to look beyond one’s own team to obtain perspective. No team has a perfect situation. Take the odds-on favorite to win the NL pennant, the Mets: According to Newsday, the Cardinals’ old friend Fernando Tatis may again play for a major-league team:

But with Moises Alou sidelined by hernia surgery and the Mets desperate to balance their lefty-heavy lineup, it appears that Tatis may have arrived just in time to make the Opening Day roster…
While his regular position is third base, Tatis was back in leftfield again yesterday, and the Mets are making it obvious that they’re leaning toward him.

When an also-ran like Tatis can land with a contender like the Mets, it makes Juan Gonzalez’s tryout with the Cardinals a bit less pathetic. And the Mets aren’t the only ones whose fans have been humbled by certain players on their rosters, some playing prominent roles. Among divisional rivals, things aren’t always greener, either. Consider that:

  • Jason Marquis, projected 5.1 VORP, will be the Cubs’ fifth starter.
  • Kaz Matsui, projected .313 OBP, will be leading off for the Astros.
  • Woody Williams, projected 3.7 VORP, is the Astros’ fourth starter getting paid $6.5 million by the Astros not to play.
  • Corey Patterson, .projected 317 OBP, will "kick start" the Reds’ offense.

When Anthony Reyes is your team’s 24th or 25th man, things could evidently be a lot worse.

But he’s not threatening to use it on anyone
McClellan appears to have made club — Post-Dispatch headline

Breaking news from 1993-2008
Pirates try to end losing ways — Post-Dispatch headline

That’s creative of him!
Jimenez making case for Cards roster — MLB.com headline

Reliable sources

Bottom stories of the day

Duties include collecting rosters
Cards’ McClellan makes case for bullpen job — MLB.com headline

Sherman’s predictions
Joel Sherman thinks he knows what’s going to happen this summer:

Those best of enemies, the Cardinals and Cubs, make a trade with rebuilding St. Louis dealing Jason Isringhausen to Chicago, which learns it cannot trust Kerry Wood in the end game.

Sherman clearly doesn’t follow the Cubs, nor is he much of a prognosticator. If Kerry Wood stays healthy long enough for the Cubs not to trust him in the end game, it’s obviously a sign of the endtimes.