The ever-meddling activist commissioner Bud Selig is at it again. The Associated Press reports:

Baseball will be making major changes in the next two years — adding two teams to the playoffs, moving the Houston Astros to the American League and extending interleague play to September.

The expanded playoffs could come as early as next year. That will put 10 teams in the postseason, requiring a new wild-card playoff round that probably will be one game, winner take all.

Hey, Selig finally got around to fixing a major structural problem that he introduced more than a decade ago when he moved the Milwaukee Brewers (surely no self-interest involved) into the NL to accompany two expansion teams in 1998! Only one problem — and it’s actually an even a bigger problem than the first: Sure, the leagues now have equal numbers of teams, but that number is 15, which is odd. Unlike so much of baseball’s numerology, in which odd numbers are often beautiful (three outs, nine innings, three strikes), odd numbers of teams is grotesque, as it virtually institutionalizes everyday interleague play. Which is to say, it does away with the concept of interleague play, insofar as it will now be the de facto way of scheduling. That is, interleague play is standard play.

But Selig didn’t stop there. Another plank of his new-world order is to add two more second-place teams to the playoffs. Some are hailing this as a victory for the division-title advocates, inasmuch as it supposedly incentivizes teams to win their divisions outright or face a one-game first-round play-in. It may indeed do that. But any kind of upward pressure in any particular division race will be undermined by the fact that one less second-place team will care about its placement. Take the following scenario for example. The Astros Brewers are two games behind the Cardinals in the NL central but are tied  for the wild card with the Diamondbacks, who are three games behind the Giants in the west. Yes, the Cardinals and Giants will have an additional incentive to maintain their leads. But the wild-card “race” — oftentimes the one legitimate race in the wild-card era — between the Brewers and Diamondbacks will lose any kind of urgency, since both of them, while perhaps preferring to win the division, are now virtually locks for the playoffs regardless. And since they’re both second-place teams, they’ll happily take their chances in a shorter play-in series. Selig’s “historical” plan merely pushes the postseason tension even further down the quality scale while doing nothing to resolve the main problem of having poorly qualified teams in the playoffs and increasing the chance of poorly qualified teams playing in the sport’s championship (since a shorter series always improves the odds for the worse team).

Like a tinkering self-justifying government apparatchik, Selig has elevated himself by interfering yet again, and as usual his plan is too clever by half. In less than two decades, Selig has managed to eradicate two of the sport’s most compelling distinctives. Where have you gone, Bart Giamatti? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Cardinals not pursuing Fielder as Plan B?
John Mozeliak comes off as a coy media player, so perhaps the latest news that it’s Pujols-or-bust is mere posturing:

On the same day he received an ovation from his peers in recognition of the Cardinals’ World Series championship, general manager John Mozeliak reiterated that the club would address Pujols’ possible defection internally rather than by joining the pursuit for fellow free agent superstar Prince Fielder.

If it’s true, though, it doesn’t make much sense. Presumably the team will have a large set-aside in the payroll for Pujols. If Pujols goes back on his word (that it’s not about the money but about winning) and signs elsewhere, the Cardinals will still have a chunk of money to spend. It’s true that a) they won’t want to spend the same amount of money on a less-iconic player like Fielder, and b) they can move Lance Berkman to first base next year. But Fielder is arguably going to perform as well as Pujols over the next eight-to-nine years, and production is production, at whatever position: It doesn’t matter if the production comes from first base or right field, assuming they can afford it. Shouldn’t the Cardinals at least consider Fielder as a fallback option?

Kershaw, Dodger Stadium beat Halladay in Cy voting
If we were smart, we would’ve long ago stopped concerning ourselves with the cartel that is the BBWAA and their annual awards. Still, we feel compelled to comment on the ongoing miscarriage of justness, the latest example of which is today’s news of the NL Cy Young vote:

Left-hander Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young Award on Thursday, becoming the first Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher to be so honored since Eric Gagne in 2003 and the first Dodgers starter to win it since Orel Hershiser in 1988.

Kershaw won the award handily in balloting by a select panel of 32 members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. He received 27 of 32 first-place votes, three seconds and two thirds for a total of 207 points, 74 more than runner-up Roy Halladay of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Without a doubt, Kershaw was stellar in 2011. But Roy Halladay was the best pitcher in either league, racking up 8.2 WAR and leading all pitchers with a 2.20 FIP, well ahead of the second-place Kershaw (2.47). Clearly writers are looking at team- and park-dependent stats like wins (Kershaw 21, Halladay 19) and ERA (Kershaw 2.28, Halladay 2.35). Does it occur to writers that Halladay toils in a hitter’s park, while Kershaw enjoys one of the most famously pitcher-friendly venues?

It’s not just that Kershaw beat the better pitcher, but that he won so handily: Halladay received only four first-place votes to Kershaw’s 27. Though the astute Jack Moore at Fangraphs seems to think it’s not a big deal because Kershaw had such a super season, the fact remains that Halladay was better. And if a better choice exists, it doesn’t matter how good #2 is.

Better not use the bullpen phone
Tigers have to make tough calls on their roster

They gave away many wins last year
White Sox earn MLB philanthropic honor

Longer, more womanly hair would suit him
Phillips, Reds progressing on extension talks

Carey kids to report to spring training right after Christmas special with mom
Twins exploring options for first base in 2012

Unlike TLR, he promises to recycle lineup cards
Matheny continues trend of green managers

Lighten up on the fat jokes!

• Brewers sizing up future with or without Fielder
• Brewers use balancing act with Prince
• Brewers Round ‘em Up: Thursday 11.17.11

Bottom stories of the day

• Options abound if Royals have a rotation opening
• Indians on the lookout for a reasonably priced bat
• Closer role, others in bullpen are wide open

Breaking news from 1994
Wild cards, realignment and more interleague ahead

Out on a limb
Mariners: Now is time Prince will come — or not

Triumvirate of  manager candidates comprise coaching staff
Mike Matheny now has his coaching staff in place. It features some strange bedfellows, including two men who also interviewed for the manager job. Presumably, third-base coach Jose Oquendo is a friend of and supportive of his new boss. Then again, so was Marcus Brutus. Let’s hope that the Secret Weapon doesn’t conspire with Chris Maloney when Matheny gets a little too bossy. Et tu, Jose?

Kerry Wood in Busch?
In his Best fits by ballpark post, Ben Jedlovec suggests that Cub reliever Kerry Wood might work in Busch Stadium:

Relievers Kerry Wood and Leo Nunez, both fly-ball pitchers, would be good targets for St. Louis, as Busch Stadium has the second-lowest three-year home run park factor in the National League (82, behind Petco’s 78).

While it’s true that Wood is a flyball pitcher, throwing them at a rate of 47.1 %, it’s also true that he is a bad-control pitcher: So far in 2011, he has a walk rate of 5.04, and ZiPS projects that he’s not going to be much better the rest of the way, at 4.71. The Cardinals could use some bullpen help, but Wood isn’t the pitcher they should be looking for. Nunez, on the other hand, has both flyball and control tendencies. Too bad the Cardinals already have enough righties who fit that profile.

Trading time
So if not Wood or Nunez, for whom should the Cardinals trade? Matt Meyers has a list of Five NL trades that should happen (subscription required), in which he covers trades for Cardinal rivals like the Reds and Brewers, but none for St. Louis. Allow us to propose something:  Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter and others for Wandy Rodriquez. The Cardinals’ package could include different near-ready prospects at positions where they already have some depth — third base, outfield, right-handed pitching.

Rodriguez has two more years with an option in 2014 on a very reasonable contract ($7, $13, $13 million, respectively). He has been one of the top pitchers in the league and would give the Cardinals a legitimate front three in the rotation against the Phillies in a possible NL pennant series, not to mention go a long way toward helping the Cardinals win the division. Alternatively, the Cardinals might pursue a cheaper option (and one which the Astros would be more likely to do) and trade for Brett Myers.  Myers would shore up the rotation and, come playoff time, could make an interesting option out of the bullpen.

News of the impossible
Sluggish bats hand Jaime first loss to Reds — MLB.com headline

Look out below!
Cards drop heartbreaker on walk-off in ninth — MLB.com headline

That’s four more years than OJ got
Cards lock up Garcia for four more years — STLToday headline

I know that dude!
Royals recall LHP Duffy to start vs. White Sox — ESPN headline

They were mad about losing the NBA championship
Heat hits Halladay as Cubs beat Phillies — Reuters headline

Who’s in first?
The Pittsburgh Pirates woke up today to a strange sight: Their name alone at the top of the standings. How strange was it? They haven’t been in first by themselves this late in the season since 1992, when they won the division title (though they came close in 1997, in first place as late as July 17). A less kind blogger would point out that, taking their Pythagorean record into account, the plucky Pirates (49-45) are actually third in the division, behind the Reds (51-45) and Cardinals (50-45). That would of course be the height of ungraciousness, given that the Pirates haven’t had much to cheer about in a couple of decades. While we’re talking about the Pirates, though, perhaps they would consider trading the Cardinals a certain switch-hitting second baseman…

In the spirit of Rob Neyer’s Monday Mendozas and Friday Filberts, we bring you Saturday Saturrias.

• Perhaps Cardinal fans are a bit edgy these days waiting for Albert Pujols to sign an extension. Or maybe they just have long memories. When former Cardinal Brad Penny posted a seemingly innocuous tweet about his recent workout, JoeSportsFan’s Matt Sebek took umbrage, perhaps still upset that Penny’s injury left the Cardinals in the lurch last year. One thing led to another, which wasn’t surprising, given that it was at least the third time that the two had locked horns. Perhaps Penny should take some Twitter-PR lessons from Logan Morrison.
• The Dodgers and reliever Hong-Chih Kuo reached agreement Wednesday on a one-year, $2.725 million contract, with another $675,000 possible through bonuses. According to Dylan Hernandez, Kuo can max out his incentives by finishing 55 games. Given that the most games he has ever pitched in an entire season is 56, that seems unlikely. But think for a moment about the incentive of finishing games. First, it’s a usage-based stat, so it’s largely out of his control. But second, finishing games, especially for LOOGYs isn’t like, say, games started for pitchers, simply because starts imply multiple innings pitched, and therefore a reasonably consistent leverage index (a measure of pressure situations during the game). For a pitcher like Kuo, who has averaged about one inning per game the last two seasons, his leverage index can vary greatly dependning on when he pitches that inning. And the last one may not be the highest. For example, his average leverage index in 2010, when he finished 16 games, was 1.51. But in 2009, when he finished only two games, it was slightly higher, at 1.55. Assuming both Kuo and manager Don Mattingly act in good faith to help the pitcher attain his goals, this would likely be a case of incentives being misaligned with the best interests of the team.
• Vladimir Guerrero’s one-year, $8 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles makes for an interesting comparison with Lance Berkman’s identical arrangement with the Cardinals. Neither player is the fielder he once was, but their new teams obviously believe they can still hit. The major projection systems do, too: Bill James figures Vlad is good for a .373 wOBA in 2011 and Berkman .385. Fangraphs’ fans are more bullish on Berkman, whom they expect to hit for .366, whereas Guerrero "only" .345. Time will tell whether the Cardinals or O’s got the better deal.
• The 2004 Cardinals own the best regular-season record — 105-57 — over the last nine years. So it’s understandable that their aging alumni would still carry some cache around the league. Earlier this winter Jeff Suppan signed with the Giants, Edgar Renteria joined Scott Rolen and Walt Jocketty’s Reds, Rick Ankiel signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals and even Hector Luna inked a minor-league contract with the Red Sox. And now, Jim Edmonds has signed a minor-league deal with his old team. Who’s next, Roger Cedeno?

On its face, Carl Crawford’s signing with the Boston Red Sox has little relevance to the Cardinals. After all, we’re talking about a free agent at a position that the Cardinals already have staffed for another six years, moving from one AL East team to another. Big deal, right?

But like international politics, moves made in faraway places often affect countries who seemingly have nothing to do with them. One of the teams vying for Crawford’s services, the Angels, now is sitting on a ton of cash that they otherwise allocated for Crawford. It just so happens that their top first baseman last year produced just 2.7 WAR. And it just so happens that the Angels play in southern California, which also just so happens to be a desirable place for Pujols to play out his thirty-something years, it being a place that attracts the bright light of the sun, but not the media.

The domino effect means that the Angels now still have funds available for Albert next winter, thus returning some leverage to Pujols in this winter’s negotiating tug-o-war, at the very least. At worst, it means that Pujols has become unsignable, if he ever was signable in the first place. The Cardinals’ somewhat strange acquisition of Lance Berkman seemed to bely any leverage against Pujols, since Berkman only signed for one year, when Pujols is still under contract. But as spring training looms in the not-too-distant future, trading Pujols this winter has to be on the table for the Cardinals. It’s a doomsday scenario, but an increasingly realistic one. The Cardinals could choose to cash out on Pujols like the Padres did with Adrian Gonzalez, also in the final year of a contract that his team was unlikely to be able to extend; they at least have Berkman to play first base. Of the three original options regarding Pujols’s future — sign to an extension this winter, trade or let walk after 2011 — Crawford’s deal up in Boston has all but taken the first out of the picture.

Leaving with Ryan
Was it any surprise that the Cardinals returned from the Winter Meetings with persona non grata Brendan Ryan still on the team? Let’s review: A week before the winter meetings, the organization goes out and trades for soon-to-be free agent Ryan Theriot, then proceeds to coronate him as the new shortstop, rendering Ryan’s value approximately the same as a bag of balls. What could John Mozeliak have expected as he commenced work in Orlando?

Fantasy league baseball is a far cry from reality, but it at least teaches some basic lessons in market dynamics. When an opposing manager goes out and acquires a new shortstop and publically says that he has no need for his former one, are you really going to offer him anything for that lame duck? Of course not; in a few days, he’ll be on the waiver wire. Even if Mozeliak and co. envisioned Theriot as their man, why come out and say it, when it could only hinder their efforts at trading Ryan?

It would be different and excusable if this were the first time this occurred. But a couple of years ago, manager Tony La Russa kneecapped Mozeliak with his public outburst about Scott Rolen. At the time, it was a near-miracle that Mozeliak was able to get Troy Glaus in return. Given the Cardinals’ lack of restraint and savvy in discussing their true feelings, it’s no wonder that their winter meetings are usually uneventful. If Mozeliak is going to bridge the Pujols contract gap, he’s going to have to be more cunning than that.

Spare us (again)
It happens every winter: Tony La Russa insults fans’ intelligence with some preposterous claim. Last year, it was his condescending defense of Mark McGwire. This year, it’s the Cardinal manager explaining the rationale for the Ryan Theriot trade:

“The reason that Ryan Theriot was traded for was that we have a chance to win and Brendan, because of his year, opened the door,” La Russa said. “I think it’s irresponsible as an organization to go in with the group next year if you had a chance to improve at that position and hope that Brendan got back, so now we don’t have to hope. We’ve got Ryan (Theriot) and we’ll see what happens with Brendan.”

I don’t see the chemistry side as a reason.”

As Jim Bouton wrote in Ball Four, "Riiiight." For fans to believe this, La Russa would have to be a poor judge of talent, which, as most agree, he is not. As we noted last week, Ryan is the superior overall player and is three years younger. We can more easily respect the honest answer (though disagree with the position) that La Russa feels the team "chemistry side" is better off without Ryan than the insulting view that Theriot is a better on-field player.

Nothing doing
Joe Strauss retweeted the link to Hal McCoy’s recent post about the Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds are coming home from baseball’s winter meetings at Disney World with nothing more than some Mickey Mouse t-shirts and stuffed Goofys as Christmas gifts.

No notable free agent signings and no trades.

And that’s not a bad thing. There is no reason for General Manager Walt Jocketty to take hammer and chisel to this roster. Some minor cosmetics will suffice and, as he says, “I like this team.”

So do I.

The Reds, of course, won the NL Central by five games in 2010 and figure to have several key players back for 2011, among them Jay Bruce (who just signed a seven-year extension) and Joey Votto, the league MVP. The previous year, the Cardinals won the division by seven and a half games, and much of their roster returned intact for 2010, including Matt Holliday, to whom they signed a seven-year deal, and Albert Pujols, the league MVP. Somehow, though we didn’t read anything in the Post Dispatch last winter about the Cardinals resembling McCoy’s "do nothing" message; in fact, we read lots of harrumphs about the many supposed holes in the lineup. So why is Strauss retweeting it?

Break out the Kool-Aid!
With Crawford and Gonzalez, Red Sox pack punch (AP)

News of the tautological
Orioles say Scott’s comments are his alone (AP)

The Jim Bouton "Riiiiiight" award
Leyland: Joyce’s call not linked to more replay (AP)

Breaking news from 1865
Yankees finally make offer to Lee (AP)

Now if he can only get out of the rubble
Rocks’ Tracy released from hospital after collapse (AP)

Bottom story of the day
A’s fail to reach agreement with Iwakuma (AP)

Baseball Bloggers Alliance
It’s winter time, and that means it’s time for Hall of Fame voting. For years, baseball writers have owned the privilege of determining the fates of retired players, managers and others in the game. Many times, they have been worthy of the task; other times, they’ve been derelict in their duties. Fortunately, the internet has allowed other talented writers covering the game to ally and offer readers a choice. The Baseball Bloggers Alliance, of which this blog is a member, includes 230 of the best baseball blogs in the country covering all major-league teams (and in some cases, multiple blogs for one team). The BBA will be announcing its Hall of Fame selections soon, so stay tuned. In the meantime, check out some of the member blogs and enjoy the work of the many writers providing insights and angles that you won’t find in the establishment media.

Is Ludwick "clutch"?

In his weekly chat Wednesday, Joe Strauss sneaked in a personal reflection about how "clutch" he found Ryan Ludwick to be as a Cardinal:

I’ll say this. Even when in a funk, Ludwick found a way to contribute in RBI situations. Coincidentally, the Cardinals have struggled badly in those situations since his departure. (Lud’ led the league in average w/RISP at the time of his trade.) The deal confused a team that was in first place at the time. When offensive help failed to arrive, it made it easier to rationalize the club’s spastic production.

Strauss and his colleagues have trotted out the "clutch" trope a lot this season, but does it even stand up on Strauss’s on terms with Ludwick? It’s true that in 2010, Ludwick has a .377 batting average with runners in scoring position and was even better with RISP and two outs, at .383. But go back a year and you’ll find that Ludwick batted only .323 with RISP and was decidedly unclutch with two outs, hitting a feeble .211. What gives? How could a guy be so awful in the clutch one year, then so money the next? The answer is simple: Anytime you split stats to yield a smaller sample, you’re going to see more variance. Further, correlation does not imply causation. Plenty of research on the subject of clutch hitting exists; w riters of all sorts — present company included — need only avail themselves of it.

Speaking of stats, Strauss came in for some deserved criticism for his proud ignorance in dismissing new ways of thinking about how to evaluate pitchers:

There increasingly appears a campaign to discredit pitcher wins as a consideration. They are considered by some as a derivative of "luck," much like RBI, in the estimation of some spreadsheet voters. Law didn’t give the vote to Lincecum. However, there is an increasingly strong smartest-guy-in-the-room element that frowns on more traditional numbers now assigned the pejorative "peripherals." Personally, I thought Wainwright the NL’s best pitcher in 2009 only to later be informed he was merely "luckier" than Lincecum. Who’da thunk?

It’s particularly rich that Strauss strikes a "smartest-guy-in-the-room" attitude while petulantly complaining about the type and dissing "spreadsheet voters." We guess the irony is lost on him. Or perhaps he’s so smart that he is above irony.

Meanwhile, the chief cause of Strauss’s insecurity, Keith Law, addresses the win stat in a calm, well-reasoned article (subscription required) that begins:

More than a century ago, it’s true the starting pitcher had more impact on whether or not his team won a game, and that may be why the "win" statistic for a pitcher was invented in the first place. When my good friend Old Hoss Radbourn started 73 games and completed all of them in 1884, perhaps his total of 59 wins meant something, since he threw every pitch, took nearly 300 turns at the plate, and might have even slipped something into the other teams’ Gatorade.

Will Strauss take the time to read it and open his mind, or will he continue to demagogue the issue in an effort to keep his followers ignorant and worshipful?

A meaningful milestone
It’s easy to criticize some stats for being meaningless, so we’ll offer up some stats that we think do have meaning, such as total bases. TBs has the additional benefit of being easy to understand — trust us, we ran it by our seven-year-old daughter, who was able to comprehend it. So as others celebrate Albert Pujols’s 10th 100+ RBI season, we commend him for his frabjous feat of 10 seasons of 300 or more total bases, which makes him only the eighth in history to do so:

We should remember that both Pujols and Barry Bonds played in the steroid era. But as long as we’re overlooking that small fact, we may as well celebrate using some worthwhile stats.

Molina out, Anderson in?
The season of slow-moving Yadier Molina has ground to a halt, according to Derrick Goold:

So Molina, in all probability, won’t be playing any more this season after he underwent an MRI on his right knee Thursday in St. Louis.

With the Cardinals out of playoff contention, Molina’s shutdown is a perfect opportunity to see what directionless prospect Bryan Anderson can do. Rather than platoon him with Matt Pagnozzi, whom the club probably doesn’t need to see perform on the big-league stage, seeing as he is likely destined for backup status next year, Anderson should get the rest of the starts this year. The team has something to gain — a possible showcase of his talents — and nothing to lose, except a few more games.

Why wait to dump Lopez?
That’s a question that Bernie Miklasz and others have asked. It’s really a simple answer, in our opinion: Hope and expectation that he could produce. Given Lopez’s career numbers and 2009 season, it was reasonable that he would regress to his norms. Most people recognize the futility of arbitrary data points — excepting Miklasz, who has a bad habit of slicing time periods to fit his hypotheses — so it was right to wait for Lopez to produce. The problem was that, whether due to injury or personal issues, he never did. If the behavioral problems were that much of a concern, the the team wouldn’t have signed him in the first place. Players aren’t automatons, so just because the Flip experiment didn’t work doesn’t mean it was a bad experiment.

Fish-on-fish violence
Carp allows slam; Cards blanked by Fish — MLB.com

Metaphor alert
Cards gain steam on Reds by bashing Friars — MLB.com

His back was so bad it had its own body parts with injuries
Padres’ Hairston back on DL with leg injury — AP

Never scratch with a migraine
Twins’ Hardy scratched with migraine — AP

"I remember that guy!"
RHP Brackman recalled by Yankees — AP

Bottom stories of the day

• Cards score. . . but so do Bucs — Stltoday.com
• Cardinals field familiar lineup today — Stltoday.com
• Jack Clark pulls out as FSM analyst — Stltoday.com

Of Stars and Scrubs
Baseball Prospectus’s Eric Seidman weighed in on the Cards’ collapse this week, explaining that "The Cardinals are widely considered to have a stars and scrubs roster." He laments that "Both Pujols and Holliday are legitimately great and Rasmus is looking more like an offensive force every day, but aside from those three, nothing in the lineup stands out." This sounds like an accurate and useful analysis, but on second glance, is it really that unique of a situation? Depending on the definition, "Stars and scrubs" could describe just about any team except the Yankees. For mid-to-small-market clubs like the Cardinals, "stars and scrubs" is more like a recipe for success rather than a disaster waiting to happen, as Seidman infers. Don’t believe us? How would you describe the main players on the 2006 championship team?

Was the team that left spring training any worse than that club? The reality is that the Cardinal "scrubs" didn’t play to their expectations, which were certainly above replacement level, whether because of injury, bad "luck" or simply a down year. It may not have been a "perfect storm," but the team had several different elements come together to sink their season. The original composition of the team wasn’t one of them.