Baseball will be making major changes in the next two years — adding two teams to the playoffs, moving the Houston Astros to the American League and extending interleague play to September.

The expanded playoffs could come as early as next year. That will put 10 teams in the postseason, requiring a new wild-card playoff round that probably will be one game, winner take all.

Hey, Selig finally got around to fixing a major structural problem that he introduced more than a decade ago when he moved the Milwaukee Brewers (surely no self-interest involved) into the NL to accompany two expansion teams in 1998! Only one problem — and it’s actually an even a bigger problem than the first: Sure, the leagues now have equal numbers of teams, but that number is 15, which is odd. Unlike so much of baseball’s numerology, in which odd numbers are often beautiful (three outs, nine innings, three strikes), odd numbers of teams is grotesque, as it virtually institutionalizes everyday interleague play. Which is to say, it does away with the concept of interleague play, insofar as it will now be the de facto way of scheduling. That is, interleague play is standard play.

But Selig didn’t stop there. Another plank of his new-world order is to add two more second-place teams to the playoffs. Some are hailing this as a victory for the division-title advocates, inasmuch as it supposedly incentivizes teams to win their divisions outright or face a one-game first-round play-in. It may indeed do that. But any kind of upward pressure in any particular division race will be undermined by the fact that one less second-place team will care about its placement. Take the following scenario for example. The Astros Brewers are two games behind the Cardinals in the NL central but are tied  for the wild card with the Diamondbacks, who are three games behind the Giants in the west. Yes, the Cardinals and Giants will have an additional incentive to maintain their leads. But the wild-card “race” — oftentimes the one legitimate race in the wild-card era — between the Brewers and Diamondbacks will lose any kind of urgency, since both of them, while perhaps preferring to win the division, are now virtually locks for the playoffs regardless. And since they’re both second-place teams, they’ll happily take their chances in a shorter play-in series. Selig’s “historical” plan merely pushes the postseason tension even further down the quality scale while doing nothing to resolve the main problem of having poorly qualified teams in the playoffs and increasing the chance of poorly qualified teams playing in the sport’s championship (since a shorter series always improves the odds for the worse team).

Like a tinkering self-justifying government apparatchik, Selig has elevated himself by interfering yet again, and as usual his plan is too clever by half. In less than two decades, Selig has managed to eradicate two of the sport’s most compelling distinctives. Where have you gone, Bart Giamatti? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Cardinals not pursuing Fielder as Plan B?
John Mozeliak comes off as a coy media player, so perhaps the latest news that it’s Pujols-or-bust is mere posturing:

On the same day he received an ovation from his peers in recognition of the Cardinals’ World Series championship, general manager John Mozeliak reiterated that the club would address Pujols’ possible defection internally rather than by joining the pursuit for fellow free agent superstar Prince Fielder.

If it’s true, though, it doesn’t make much sense. Presumably the team will have a large set-aside in the payroll for Pujols. If Pujols goes back on his word (that it’s not about the money but about winning) and signs elsewhere, the Cardinals will still have a chunk of money to spend. It’s true that a) they won’t want to spend the same amount of money on a less-iconic player like Fielder, and b) they can move Lance Berkman to first base next year. But Fielder is arguably going to perform as well as Pujols over the next eight-to-nine years, and production is production, at whatever position: It doesn’t matter if the production comes from first base or right field, assuming they can afford it. Shouldn’t the Cardinals at least consider Fielder as a fallback option?

Kershaw, Dodger Stadium beat Halladay in Cy voting
If we were smart, we would’ve long ago stopped concerning ourselves with the cartel that is the BBWAA and their annual awards. Still, we feel compelled to comment on the ongoing miscarriage of justness, the latest example of which is today’s news of the NL Cy Young vote:

Left-hander Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young Award on Thursday, becoming the first Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher to be so honored since Eric Gagne in 2003 and the first Dodgers starter to win it since Orel Hershiser in 1988.

Kershaw won the award handily in balloting by a select panel of 32 members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. He received 27 of 32 first-place votes, three seconds and two thirds for a total of 207 points, 74 more than runner-up Roy Halladay of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Without a doubt, Kershaw was stellar in 2011. But Roy Halladay was the best pitcher in either league, racking up 8.2 WAR and leading all pitchers with a 2.20 FIP, well ahead of the second-place Kershaw (2.47). Clearly writers are looking at team- and park-dependent stats like wins (Kershaw 21, Halladay 19) and ERA (Kershaw 2.28, Halladay 2.35). Does it occur to writers that Halladay toils in a hitter’s park, while Kershaw enjoys one of the most famously pitcher-friendly venues?

It’s not just that Kershaw beat the better pitcher, but that he won so handily: Halladay received only four first-place votes to Kershaw’s 27. Though the astute Jack Moore at Fangraphs seems to think it’s not a big deal because Kershaw had such a super season, the fact remains that Halladay was better. And if a better choice exists, it doesn’t matter how good #2 is.

Better not use the bullpen phone
Tigers have to make tough calls on their roster

They gave away many wins last year
White Sox earn MLB philanthropic honor

Longer, more womanly hair would suit him
Phillips, Reds progressing on extension talks

Carey kids to report to spring training right after Christmas special with mom
Twins exploring options for first base in 2012

Unlike TLR, he promises to recycle lineup cards
Matheny continues trend of green managers

Lighten up on the fat jokes!

• Brewers sizing up future with or without Fielder
• Brewers use balancing act with Prince
• Brewers Round ‘em Up: Thursday 11.17.11

Bottom stories of the day

• Options abound if Royals have a rotation opening
• Indians on the lookout for a reasonably priced bat
• Closer role, others in bullpen are wide open

Breaking news from 1994
Wild cards, realignment and more interleague ahead

Out on a limb
Mariners: Now is time Prince will come — or not

Triumvirate of  manager candidates comprise coaching staff
Mike Matheny now has his coaching staff in place. It features some strange bedfellows, including two men who also interviewed for the manager job. Presumably, third-base coach Jose Oquendo is a friend of and supportive of his new boss. Then again, so was Marcus Brutus. Let’s hope that the Secret Weapon doesn’t conspire with Chris Maloney when Matheny gets a little too bossy. Et tu, Jose?

Relievers Kerry Wood and Leo Nunez, both fly-ball pitchers, would be good targets for St. Louis, as Busch Stadium has the second-lowest three-year home run park factor in the National League (82, behind Petco’s 78).

While it’s true that Wood is a flyball pitcher, throwing them at a rate of 47.1 %, it’s also true that he is a bad-control pitcher: So far in 2011, he has a walk rate of 5.04, and ZiPS projects that he’s not going to be much better the rest of the way, at 4.71. The Cardinals could use some bullpen help, but Wood isn’t the pitcher they should be looking for. Nunez, on the other hand, has both flyball and control tendencies. Too bad the Cardinals already have enough righties who fit that profile.

Trading time
So if not Wood or Nunez, for whom should the Cardinals trade? Matt Meyers has a list of Five NL trades that should happen (subscription required), in which he covers trades for Cardinal rivals like the Reds and Brewers, but none for St. Louis. Allow us to propose something:  Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter and others for Wandy Rodriquez. The Cardinals’ package could include different near-ready prospects at positions where they already have some depth — third base, outfield, right-handed pitching.

Rodriguez has two more years with an option in 2014 on a very reasonable contract ($7, $13, $13 million, respectively). He has been one of the top pitchers in the league and would give the Cardinals a legitimate front three in the rotation against the Phillies in a possible NL pennant series, not to mention go a long way toward helping the Cardinals win the division. Alternatively, the Cardinals might pursue a cheaper option (and one which the Astros would be more likely to do) and trade for Brett Myers.  Myers would shore up the rotation and, come playoff time, could make an interesting option out of the bullpen.

News of the impossible
Sluggish bats hand Jaime first loss to Reds — MLB.com headline

Look out below!
Cards drop heartbreaker on walk-off in ninth — MLB.com headline

That’s four more years than OJ got
Cards lock up Garcia for four more years — STLToday headline

I know that dude!
Royals recall LHP Duffy to start vs. White Sox — ESPN headline

They were mad about losing the NBA championship
Heat hits Halladay as Cubs beat Phillies — Reuters headline

Who’s in first?
The Pittsburgh Pirates woke up today to a strange sight: Their name alone at the top of the standings. How strange was it? They haven’t been in first by themselves this late in the season since 1992, when they won the division title (though they came close in 1997, in first place as late as July 17). A less kind blogger would point out that, taking their Pythagorean record into account, the plucky Pirates (49-45) are actually third in the division, behind the Reds (51-45) and Cardinals (50-45). That would of course be the height of ungraciousness, given that the Pirates haven’t had much to cheer about in a couple of decades. While we’re talking about the Pirates, though, perhaps they would consider trading the Cardinals a certain switch-hitting second baseman…

• Perhaps Cardinal fans are a bit edgy these days waiting for Albert Pujols to sign an extension. Or maybe they just have long memories. When former Cardinal Brad Penny posted a seemingly innocuous tweet about his recent workout, JoeSportsFan’s Matt Sebek took umbrage, perhaps still upset that Penny’s injury left the Cardinals in the lurch last year. One thing led to another, which wasn’t surprising, given that it was at least the third time that the two had locked horns. Perhaps Penny should take some Twitter-PR lessons from Logan Morrison.
• The Dodgers and reliever Hong-Chih Kuo reached agreement Wednesday on a one-year, $2.725 million contract, with another $675,000 possible through bonuses. According to Dylan Hernandez, Kuo can max out his incentives by finishing 55 games. Given that the most games he has ever pitched in an entire season is 56, that seems unlikely. But think for a moment about the incentive of finishing games. First, it’s a usage-based stat, so it’s largely out of his control. But second, finishing games, especially for LOOGYs isn’t like, say, games started for pitchers, simply because starts imply multiple innings pitched, and therefore a reasonably consistent leverage index (a measure of pressure situations during the game). For a pitcher like Kuo, who has averaged about one inning per game the last two seasons, his leverage index can vary greatly dependning on when he pitches that inning. And the last one may not be the highest. For example, his average leverage index in 2010, when he finished 16 games, was 1.51. But in 2009, when he finished only two games, it was slightly higher, at 1.55. Assuming both Kuo and manager Don Mattingly act in good faith to help the pitcher attain his goals, this would likely be a case of incentives being misaligned with the best interests of the team.
• Vladimir Guerrero’s one-year, $8 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles makes for an interesting comparison with Lance Berkman’s identical arrangement with the Cardinals. Neither player is the fielder he once was, but their new teams obviously believe they can still hit. The major projection systems do, too: Bill James figures Vlad is good for a .373 wOBA in 2011 and Berkman .385. Fangraphs’ fans are more bullish on Berkman, whom they expect to hit for .366, whereas Guerrero "only" .345. Time will tell whether the Cardinals or O’s got the better deal.
• The 2004 Cardinals own the best regular-season record — 105-57 — over the last nine years. So it’s understandable that their aging alumni would still carry some cache around the league. Earlier this winter Jeff Suppan signed with the Giants, Edgar Renteria joined Scott Rolen and Walt Jocketty’s Reds, Rick Ankiel signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals and even Hector Luna inked a minor-league contract with the Red Sox. And now, Jim Edmonds has signed a minor-league deal with his old team. Who’s next, Roger Cedeno?

But like international politics, moves made in faraway places often affect countries who seemingly have nothing to do with them. One of the teams vying for Crawford’s services, the Angels, now is sitting on a ton of cash that they otherwise allocated for Crawford. It just so happens that their top first baseman last year produced just 2.7 WAR. And it just so happens that the Angels play in southern California, which also just so happens to be a desirable place for Pujols to play out his thirty-something years, it being a place that attracts the bright light of the sun, but not the media.

The domino effect means that the Angels now still have funds available for Albert next winter, thus returning some leverage to Pujols in this winter’s negotiating tug-o-war, at the very least. At worst, it means that Pujols has become unsignable, if he ever was signable in the first place. The Cardinals’ somewhat strange acquisition of Lance Berkman seemed to bely any leverage against Pujols, since Berkman only signed for one year, when Pujols is still under contract. But as spring training looms in the not-too-distant future, trading Pujols this winter has to be on the table for the Cardinals. It’s a doomsday scenario, but an increasingly realistic one. The Cardinals could choose to cash out on Pujols like the Padres did with Adrian Gonzalez, also in the final year of a contract that his team was unlikely to be able to extend; they at least have Berkman to play first base. Of the three original options regarding Pujols’s future — sign to an extension this winter, trade or let walk after 2011 — Crawford’s deal up in Boston has all but taken the first out of the picture.

Leaving with Ryan
Was it any surprise that the Cardinals returned from the Winter Meetings with persona non grata Brendan Ryan still on the team? Let’s review: A week before the winter meetings, the organization goes out and trades for soon-to-be free agent Ryan Theriot, then proceeds to coronate him as the new shortstop, rendering Ryan’s value approximately the same as a bag of balls. What could John Mozeliak have expected as he commenced work in Orlando?

Fantasy league baseball is a far cry from reality, but it at least teaches some basic lessons in market dynamics. When an opposing manager goes out and acquires a new shortstop and publically says that he has no need for his former one, are you really going to offer him anything for that lame duck? Of course not; in a few days, he’ll be on the waiver wire. Even if Mozeliak and co. envisioned Theriot as their man, why come out and say it, when it could only hinder their efforts at trading Ryan?

It would be different and excusable if this were the first time this occurred. But a couple of years ago, manager Tony La Russa kneecapped Mozeliak with his public outburst about Scott Rolen. At the time, it was a near-miracle that Mozeliak was able to get Troy Glaus in return. Given the Cardinals’ lack of restraint and savvy in discussing their true feelings, it’s no wonder that their winter meetings are usually uneventful. If Mozeliak is going to bridge the Pujols contract gap, he’s going to have to be more cunning than that.

Spare us (again)
It happens every winter: Tony La Russa insults fans’ intelligence with some preposterous claim. Last year, it was his condescending defense of Mark McGwire. This year, it’s the Cardinal manager explaining the rationale for the Ryan Theriot trade:

“The reason that Ryan Theriot was traded for was that we have a chance to win and Brendan, because of his year, opened the door,” La Russa said. “I think it’s irresponsible as an organization to go in with the group next year if you had a chance to improve at that position and hope that Brendan got back, so now we don’t have to hope. We’ve got Ryan (Theriot) and we’ll see what happens with Brendan.”

I don’t see the chemistry side as a reason.”

As Jim Bouton wrote in Ball Four, "Riiiight." For fans to believe this, La Russa would have to be a poor judge of talent, which, as most agree, he is not. As we noted last week, Ryan is the superior overall player and is three years younger. We can more easily respect the honest answer (though disagree with the position) that La Russa feels the team "chemistry side" is better off without Ryan than the insulting view that Theriot is a better on-field player.

Nothing doing
Joe Strauss retweeted the link to Hal McCoy’s recent post about the Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds are coming home from baseball’s winter meetings at Disney World with nothing more than some Mickey Mouse t-shirts and stuffed Goofys as Christmas gifts.

No notable free agent signings and no trades.

And that’s not a bad thing. There is no reason for General Manager Walt Jocketty to take hammer and chisel to this roster. Some minor cosmetics will suffice and, as he says, “I like this team.”

So do I.

The Reds, of course, won the NL Central by five games in 2010 and figure to have several key players back for 2011, among them Jay Bruce (who just signed a seven-year extension) and Joey Votto, the league MVP. The previous year, the Cardinals won the division by seven and a half games, and much of their roster returned intact for 2010, including Matt Holliday, to whom they signed a seven-year deal, and Albert Pujols, the league MVP. Somehow, though we didn’t read anything in the Post Dispatch last winter about the Cardinals resembling McCoy’s "do nothing" message; in fact, we read lots of harrumphs about the many supposed holes in the lineup. So why is Strauss retweeting it?

Break out the Kool-Aid!
With Crawford and Gonzalez, Red Sox pack punch (AP)

News of the tautological
Orioles say Scott’s comments are his alone (AP)

The Jim Bouton "Riiiiiight" award
Leyland: Joyce’s call not linked to more replay (AP)

Breaking news from 1865
Yankees finally make offer to Lee (AP)

Now if he can only get out of the rubble
Rocks’ Tracy released from hospital after collapse (AP)

Bottom story of the day
A’s fail to reach agreement with Iwakuma (AP)

Baseball Bloggers Alliance
It’s winter time, and that means it’s time for Hall of Fame voting. For years, baseball writers have owned the privilege of determining the fates of retired players, managers and others in the game. Many times, they have been worthy of the task; other times, they’ve been derelict in their duties. Fortunately, the internet has allowed other talented writers covering the game to ally and offer readers a choice. The Baseball Bloggers Alliance, of which this blog is a member, includes 230 of the best baseball blogs in the country covering all major-league teams (and in some cases, multiple blogs for one team). The BBA will be announcing its Hall of Fame selections soon, so stay tuned. In the meantime, check out some of the member blogs and enjoy the work of the many writers providing insights and angles that you won’t find in the establishment media.

In his weekly chat Wednesday, Joe Strauss sneaked in a personal reflection about how "clutch" he found Ryan Ludwick to be as a Cardinal:

I’ll say this. Even when in a funk, Ludwick found a way to contribute in RBI situations. Coincidentally, the Cardinals have struggled badly in those situations since his departure. (Lud’ led the league in average w/RISP at the time of his trade.) The deal confused a team that was in first place at the time. When offensive help failed to arrive, it made it easier to rationalize the club’s spastic production.

Strauss and his colleagues have trotted out the "clutch" trope a lot this season, but does it even stand up on Strauss’s on terms with Ludwick? It’s true that in 2010, Ludwick has a .377 batting average with runners in scoring position and was even better with RISP and two outs, at .383. But go back a year and you’ll find that Ludwick batted only .323 with RISP and was decidedly unclutch with two outs, hitting a feeble .211. What gives? How could a guy be so awful in the clutch one year, then so money the next? The answer is simple: Anytime you split stats to yield a smaller sample, you’re going to see more variance. Further, correlation does not imply causation. Plenty of research on the subject of clutch hitting exists; w riters of all sorts — present company included — need only avail themselves of it.

Speaking of stats, Strauss came in for some deserved criticism for his proud ignorance in dismissing new ways of thinking about how to evaluate pitchers:

There increasingly appears a campaign to discredit pitcher wins as a consideration. They are considered by some as a derivative of "luck," much like RBI, in the estimation of some spreadsheet voters. Law didn’t give the vote to Lincecum. However, there is an increasingly strong smartest-guy-in-the-room element that frowns on more traditional numbers now assigned the pejorative "peripherals." Personally, I thought Wainwright the NL’s best pitcher in 2009 only to later be informed he was merely "luckier" than Lincecum. Who’da thunk?

It’s particularly rich that Strauss strikes a "smartest-guy-in-the-room" attitude while petulantly complaining about the type and dissing "spreadsheet voters." We guess the irony is lost on him. Or perhaps he’s so smart that he is above irony.

Meanwhile, the chief cause of Strauss’s insecurity, Keith Law, addresses the win stat in a calm, well-reasoned article (subscription required) that begins:

More than a century ago, it’s true the starting pitcher had more impact on whether or not his team won a game, and that may be why the "win" statistic for a pitcher was invented in the first place. When my good friend Old Hoss Radbourn started 73 games and completed all of them in 1884, perhaps his total of 59 wins meant something, since he threw every pitch, took nearly 300 turns at the plate, and might have even slipped something into the other teams’ Gatorade.

Will Strauss take the time to read it and open his mind, or will he continue to demagogue the issue in an effort to keep his followers ignorant and worshipful?

A meaningful milestone
It’s easy to criticize some stats for being meaningless, so we’ll offer up some stats that we think do have meaning, such as total bases. TBs has the additional benefit of being easy to understand — trust us, we ran it by our seven-year-old daughter, who was able to comprehend it. So as others celebrate Albert Pujols’s 10th 100+ RBI season, we commend him for his frabjous feat of 10 seasons of 300 or more total bases, which makes him only the eighth in history to do so:

We should remember that both Pujols and Barry Bonds played in the steroid era. But as long as we’re overlooking that small fact, we may as well celebrate using some worthwhile stats.

Molina out, Anderson in?
The season of slow-moving Yadier Molina has ground to a halt, according to Derrick Goold:

So Molina, in all probability, won’t be playing any more this season after he underwent an MRI on his right knee Thursday in St. Louis.

With the Cardinals out of playoff contention, Molina’s shutdown is a perfect opportunity to see what directionless prospect Bryan Anderson can do. Rather than platoon him with Matt Pagnozzi, whom the club probably doesn’t need to see perform on the big-league stage, seeing as he is likely destined for backup status next year, Anderson should get the rest of the starts this year. The team has something to gain — a possible showcase of his talents — and nothing to lose, except a few more games.

Why wait to dump Lopez?
That’s a question that Bernie Miklasz and others have asked. It’s really a simple answer, in our opinion: Hope and expectation that he could produce. Given Lopez’s career numbers and 2009 season, it was reasonable that he would regress to his norms. Most people recognize the futility of arbitrary data points — excepting Miklasz, who has a bad habit of slicing time periods to fit his hypotheses — so it was right to wait for Lopez to produce. The problem was that, whether due to injury or personal issues, he never did. If the behavioral problems were that much of a concern, the the team wouldn’t have signed him in the first place. Players aren’t automatons, so just because the Flip experiment didn’t work doesn’t mean it was a bad experiment.

Fish-on-fish violence
Carp allows slam; Cards blanked by Fish — MLB.com

Metaphor alert
Cards gain steam on Reds by bashing Friars — MLB.com

His back was so bad it had its own body parts with injuries
Padres’ Hairston back on DL with leg injury — AP

Never scratch with a migraine
Twins’ Hardy scratched with migraine — AP

"I remember that guy!"
RHP Brackman recalled by Yankees — AP

Bottom stories of the day

• Cards score. . . but so do Bucs — Stltoday.com
• Cardinals field familiar lineup today — Stltoday.com
• Jack Clark pulls out as FSM analyst — Stltoday.com

Of Stars and Scrubs
Baseball Prospectus’s Eric Seidman weighed in on the Cards’ collapse this week, explaining that "The Cardinals are widely considered to have a stars and scrubs roster." He laments that "Both Pujols and Holliday are legitimately great and Rasmus is looking more like an offensive force every day, but aside from those three, nothing in the lineup stands out." This sounds like an accurate and useful analysis, but on second glance, is it really that unique of a situation? Depending on the definition, "Stars and scrubs" could describe just about any team except the Yankees. For mid-to-small-market clubs like the Cardinals, "stars and scrubs" is more like a recipe for success rather than a disaster waiting to happen, as Seidman infers. Don’t believe us? How would you describe the main players on the 2006 championship team?

Was the team that left spring training any worse than that club? The reality is that the Cardinal "scrubs" didn’t play to their expectations, which were certainly above replacement level, whether because of injury, bad "luck" or simply a down year. It may not have been a "perfect storm," but the team had several different elements come together to sink their season. The original composition of the team wasn’t one of them.

• 2009: .325 wOBA, 8th place in NL
• 2010: .325 wOBA, 7th place in NL

Certainly, the offense is something less than the pride of the NL, but the same offense was good enough to win the division last year. And with two of their biggest producers having spent significant time on the DL — David Freese and Ryan Ludwick — criticism is a bit unwarranted.

Whereas Miklasz feels that "the most glaring weakness with the 2010 Cardinals is their dull offense," the worst component, by league rank, anyway, is the bullpen, which is third-worst in xFIP. So is the effort to strengthen the starting pitching misguided? After all, the starting pitchers lead the league in xFIP. But look a little deeper, and you’ll see that the Cardinal starters are only fifth in the league in innings pitched per start, at around six. so while the innings that they do pitch are high quality, the lack of quantity exerts additional pressure on the pen, which, perhaps combined with some mismanagement, may contribute to the pen’s lackluster performance. So it’s still reasonable to figure that improving the rotation will improve the team’s true weakness, the bullpen.

Wither Westbrook?
Jayson Stark reported Friday that the Cardinals "have made Cleveland Indians pitcher Jake Westbrook their No. 1 target leading into the trade deadline." After missing out on seemingly doable deals for Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt, the Cardinals are apparently "going in a different direction." In our opinion, the club needs to be careful not to overpay for a far inferior pitcher in order to not come away emptyhanded at the trade deadline. If the team wasn’t willing to pay for top talent, it needs to resist the temptation to join the fray after they’ve missed the boat. Better to wait for the next boat — as in the winter — than to do something rash as a reaction to a market they misread.

Look at me, I can be centerfield
Tony La Russa has lately given Colby Rasmus more time on the pine than on the turf. The opening-day centerfielder has started only one of the last five games, prompting Derrick Goold to ask whether Jon Jay, who has gotten the nod over Rasmus, is the better bet. It’s true that Jay has been hot since his recall. But this is a small-sample-size alert if ever there was one. Jay boasts a heady .435 wOBA, better than Rasmus’s .368, but has about a third as many plate appearances (122 to 342). To his credit, Jay has exhibited some decent plate discipline, bettering Rasmus in contact rate and swing rate. All the same, Jay has also benefited from a slightly higher platoon advantage, facing righties 82% of the time (Rasmus: 76%). That means that Rasmus has had 60 more plate appearances against lefties, no small disadvantage. The more apt question might instead be “Jay or Ludwick?”

Fishpower beats deerpower
Carp out to continue dominance of Bucs — MLB headline

Come on, Big Z isn’t that fat
Howry’s release makes room for Zambrano — ESPN headline

He’d like his money back
Phils’ Moyer hopes to return this season — ESPN headline

Takes wrist, ball and goes home
Brewers’ Hart leaves with injured wrist — ESPN headline

Special edition of "The Bachelor"
Capps happy for opportunity with contending Twins — AP headline

Vincent Van Gold chain
Tonight is Vince Coleman Bobblehead night at Busch Stadium. Coleman himself was on-hand to provide the pregame action, being interviewed on the field. We espied him in the press lobby, and, though he appears to have added some girth, his look remains relatively unchanged from his playing days. That is, he sported a v-neck t-shirt which nattily complemented his ubiquitous gold chain. It’s reassuring to know that in this world of change, some things remain as they were in 1985.

With the team having other more pressing needs, we’re not sure that just because the Cardinals can sign Fuentes that they should. After all, Jeff Gordon suspects that the asking price could be high:

If the Anaheim Angels get really interested in having him replace K-Rod, the bidding could go high -– three years, $33 million or more — but this is the guy the Cards have to sign.

If that’s the case, then the answer is simple: no. Given that Fuentes is probably not worth much more than $3.75 million (according to JC Bradbury), that the Cardinals currently have one to two spots in their rotation that need to be filled (Marcel projects Pineiro to pitch 130 innings, and not particularly well) and are planning (publicly, anyway) to go with a second baseman projected to have a .231 GPA, the Cardinals shouldn’t be wasting their money on that mysterious thing known as a "closer." Oh, and did we mention that the Cardinals would have to surrender draft picks for the privilege?

It’s not that Fuentes isn’t a capable reliever. His 3.25 xFIP in 2008 was one of the best in the league. But, after Gordon claims that "this is the guy the Cards have to sign," in the next sentence admits he’s no "lockdown closer." Indeed, his projected 3.69 FIP is helpful, but not $10+ million helpful. Not when the Cardinals have more innings to be pitched.

Clearing the record
You’ve gotta love how, less than a year and a half after being discovered as a cheat, Rick Ankiel’s standard bio ‘graf has been whitewashed of his misdeed, as MLB.com’s Bill Chastain demonstrates at the end of his short article on the Rays’ interest in the Cardinal center fielder:

Ankiel, 29, bats and throws left-handed. He hit.264 with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs for the Cardinals in 2008. Once a promising pitcher — he experienced a highly publicized control ordeal before returning to the Minor Leagues and changing positions. Ankiel has one of the best arms in baseball and can play right or center field.

It’s as if Ankiel’s secretly taking HGH, lying about never receiving it from Signature pharmacy, and subsequently pretending it was for an injury — arguably an important tidbit in his career — never happened. Aren’t baseball fans supposed to have long memories? At any rate, if Ankiel is indeed being shopped, we at least appreciate the media’s repetition of that specious claim of his having "one of best arms in baseball." Ankiel may have a strong arm, but as we’ve noted, it doesn’t translate into especially good overall defense. But the Cardinals are grateful for the free advertising. On second thought, perhaps Chastain is a Redbird fan.

McGwire’s "integrity"
Speaking of MLB writers who may not report the more indecorous facts, beat reporter Matthew Leach starts to tell the story about Mark McGwire in his article on the former Cardinal slugger’s Hall of Fame merits, but scratches only the surface:

McGwire has admitted taking androstenedione, a steroid precursor, but nothing stiffer than that. He retired before steroid testing came to baseball. He was accused of steroid use in Jose Canseco’s tell-all book, "Juiced," however. And when he testified before Congress in the spring of 2006, McGwire delivered a performance that disappointed even his staunchest defenders.

Uh, to say that McGwire was merely accused of use is akin to saying Rod Blagojevich is only suspected of impropriety. Back in 2005, the New York Daily News reported that McGwire was using "the cocktail of a hardcore steroids user." But writers aren’t the only ones overlooking the obvious, as Tony La Russa shows, according to Derrick Goold:

“This steroid issue, that’s a matter of integrity, right?” La Russa said. “That’s one way to describe it, right? Well, it occurred to me, I know that I’ve never spoken much about it at all, but this guy did something that screams integrity. … How many guys do we know that had a contract like he had? He had a contract in his hand for $15 million over two years, and he walked away from it because he didn’t feel like he could play to that level. That, to me, there’s a certain integrity for the sport, for self-respect and everything.”

Unfortunately, McGwire also did something that screams an utter lack of integrity. This kind of dissembling is disrespectful to fans and La Russa should be ashamed of himself for it. La Russa may make some money lawyering after he retires from baseball, but for now, he’s getting paid to manage and not represent disgraced heroes.

Out of the park
SABR’s Baseball Biography Project has recently posted four new articles on old ballparks in St. Louis, all by the Bob Broeg Chapter’s own Joan Thomas:

• Red Stockings Park
• Union Base Ball Park
• Federal League Park
• Robison Field

Speaking of the Bob Broeg Chapter, in case you can’t get enough baseball discussion (perhaps you missed the UCB’s radio show this past Wednesday!), you’re welcome to attend the chapter’s December roundtable meeting this coming Monday, Dec. 15, at Crusoe’s, Osceola and Compton, in beautiful South St. Louis. As always, dinner is from roughly 5:30 on, with the meeting formally starting at 6:45. Join us; you may even get to chat with Joan.

Missed draft picks
For those scoring at home, it turns out that the Tigers made the wrong call in not offering arbitration to Edgar Renteria, who signed a two-year deal with the Giants. And with Kerry Wood signing an incredible two-year deal with Cleveland, proving that concerns over belt-tightening were precipitous, the Cubs lost out on a pick, as well. The Angels, on the other end of the spectrum, took a slight chance in offering Francisco Rodriguez arbitration, inasmuch as he’s only worth about $5 million (according to JC Bradbury), and will have some Met draft picks in 2009.

News of the tautological
Executives at winter meetings expect economy to affect game — Post-Dispatch headline

"It’s gonna be just like the ‘76 tour with the Dead, man!"

Red Sox unveil ‘retro roadies’ — MLB.com headline

Could you be more specific?
Izturis looks like the guy — Baltimore Sun headline

Easy for you to say
Three-team blockbuster nets Mets Putz — MLB.com headline

Breaking news from 1960
Cardinals committed to Kennedy — MLB.com headline

Creative negotiations: It beats turkey when it comes to closing the sale
Brewers finalize deal with Lamb — MLB.com headline

Bottom stories of the week

• Rangers don’t expect deal for Sheffield — MLB.com headline
• Stats? Go with gut when voting for Hall — San Francisco Chronicle headline
• Where are they now? Ex-Yankee Ed Figueroa — NY Daily News headline
• Lots of guessing surrounds Cubs at winter meetings — Chicago Tribune headline

Law on the Cardinals
The newly associated (as in Baseball Writers Association of America) Keith Law held forth on the Winter Meetings in his online chat Thursday and responded to a couple of inquiries about the Cardinals’ centerfield situation:

Kevin (STL): Should Ankiel be dealt?

Keith Law: (2:04 PM ET ) I’m not sure what the urgency is, but if it’s just about clearing a spot for Rasmus, I hope they get full value for him. You could always slide Ankiel to a corner and trade Ludwick, who is all downside after the huge year.

And later:

Grant (The Lou): You mention Colby Rasmus earlier. What is his upper potential? Grady Sizemore w a bit less pop?

Keith Law: (2:24 PM ET ) More pop, less defense. Perfect world projection, to borrow a phrase from Kevin Goldstein.

Later in the chat, Law provided his view of the team’s top priority:

Pip (St. Louis): Tony La Russa says the Cardinals’ #1 priority is a closer (read: Fuentes). What do *you* think their #1 should be?

Keith Law: (2:14 PM ET ) A second baseman with some pop. But I don’t think signing a closer/good reliever is a bad idea. They’re sneaky-good for ‘09, especially if Carpenter can add 20-25 starts.

We’ll take "sneaky-good." By the way, who does this wiseguy "Pip" think he is questioning the value of free-agent closers?

The team controls all but one of their outfielders. Ryan Ludwick figures to be an interesting but not exorbitantly expensive arbitration case, if it gets that far. Rick Ankiel shouldn’t break the bank. Essentially, the team has three players who can play centerfield reasonably well (Skip Schumaker, Ludwick and Ankiel are similarly adept). Adding Joe Mather and/or Brian Barton, and the big "if" Chris Duncan provides depth that affords the luxury of Colby Rasmus’s further minor-league development. The question, of course, is whether it’s reasonable to assume that the same group of outfielders can repeat its 2008 production. Even given a slight decline in Ludwick’s performance, it’s reasonable to expect that, on the whole, the group will at least come within 10% of last year’s work. And if that’s the case, outfield probably isn’t the first place John Mozeliak should start when looking for outside help.

Speaking of Burrell and the Phillies: If they win the Series, it will be the beginning of a strong case that the National League has turned the tide and can no longer be considered the weaker league. Anothe bit of evidence: The NL’s outfields were more productive than the AL’s.

Is Peavy worth it?
Whether the Cardinals could or even want to trade for Jake Peavy is still academic. But for reference, we thought we’d check to see if he’s even worth it. Let’s compare his contract with his projected MORP (Market Value Over Replacement Player):

Since MORP measures value over replacement player, who still costs at least league minimum, Peavy’s existing contract represents a good value. Whether it’s a good value for the Padres or the Cardinals — or someone else — remains to be seen.

You can stuff your sorries in a sack
Upon the Cardinals’ buyout of his 2009 option, Mark Mulder cried some crocodile tears. "I would have given up anything to have done well in that city and with that team," the Post-Dispatch quoted him as saying. The not-yet-cynical among us will appreciate Mulder’s seemingly magnanimous comments. But we’ve heard it before, and, after all, this is a guy who doesn’t have a contract for next year and presumably would like to work again in baseball. It’s hard to believe Mulder is all that sincere, when he just accepted $1.5 from the Cardinals for his option year. How about you just return the money (after paying your agent’s cut) and we’ll call it, well, "even" is a bit much. Let’s just say we’ll let you be a by-gone, Mark.

But do they like like him?
Brewers seem to like Macha — Journal-Sentinel headline

Their work here on earth is finished
Angels to bring back Vlad, P Lackey — SI.com headline

Things we’d rather not have explained
Maddon skeptical of explanation of Blanton’s cap stain — St. Petersburg Times headline

News of the tautological
Several factors affect White Sox in free agency — Chicago Tribune headline

"Hey, we’ve seen that year before!"
Players recognize Pujols’ monster year — MLB.com headline

Bottom stories of the week:

• Oates steps in to sing anthem for Hall — MLB.com headline
• Rays react to loss — Boston Globe headline
• Cards’ Pujols garners another award — MLB headline

The end of baseball as we know it
Does Bug Selig have a death wish for Major League Baseball? We understand that he’s old and probably wants to cash in now on some fame, but his short-sighted decisions to first televise only half of the league-championship games on a broadcast network and to then have every World Series game played no earlier than 7:30pm Central time (among other things) are dooming the national pastime to a lack of future fan base. Andy McCarthy explains (hat tip: Double-M):

What is wrong with baseball? I have a 6-year-old who fell in love with the game this year. All he wanted to do was watch some of the World Series, which just f-i-n-a-l-l-y started a few minutes ago. It’s a school night. I told him he could watch an inning, then I cut it to a batter, then, eventually, just the first pitch. Why? Because we sat through 15 minutes of commercials waiting for the game to start.

Baseball has allowed television to take over the post-season. I am a nut for the game, and I gave up in the fourth inning of Game 7 between the Rays and the Sox the other night — I couldn’t stay awake through the extended commercial breaks between innings. A few years back, I gave up Monday Night Football for the same reason.

No more day games in the World Series, they don’t start to play til after 830pm Eastern, and the games take 4 hours to play. If your team’s not in it, who can watch that? What kids — y’know, the people the game has to hook if it’s going to sustain its fat paydays — can stay up for that?

I finally got so aggravated, I turned it off. I’m a junkie, so of course I’ll eventually turn it back on, but not tonight. And if they make me, a die-hard fan, feel that way, how can they possibly hold normal people who have plenty of other things they’d just as soon be doing?

Alas, we suppose McCarthy’s argument is far too logical for Bud Selig. And we don’t care what your politics are, this story has to bother any self-respecting American:

Barack Obama might have the power to move the World Series by a few minutes.

To accommodate a half-hour Obama time buy on Fox on Oct. 29, Major League Baseball has agreed to move the start time of World Series Game 6 by about 15 minutes. That would move the start of the game from 8:20 p.m. ET or so to 8:35 p.m. “Fox will accommodate Senator Obama’s desire to communicate with voters in this longform format,” Fox Sports said in a statement. “We are pleased that Major League Baseball has agreed to delay the first pitch of World Series Game 6 for a few minutes in order for Fox to carry his program on Oct. 29. If requested, the network would be willing to make similar time available to Senator McCain’s campaign.”

Audacity of hope, indeed! (And so much for Fox being a conservative pawn.) No matter whether Obama or McCain gets elected president next week, Americans will have a choice in getting rid of him in four years. Would that Americans had the same option for the Commissioner of Baseball.

With the team increasingly needing spot starters, going from needing only four in 2004 and two each in 2005 and 2006 to seven in 2007 and already five this season, Thompson provides a valuable, if unheralded, service. Being a reliable spot starter is a bit like being a good pinch hitter, so perhaps Thompson will be able to break through the glass ceiling on his career or find freedom like another occasional spot starter, Anthony Reyes.

Lesson learned?
Suffice it to say that, without having to face Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn, the Cardinals had a much easier time taking two of three in Cincinnati last weekend. Erstwhile Cardinals’ and current Reds’ GM Walt Jocketty dealt the two sluggers in separate trades a couple of weeks ago, divesting the team’s two longest-tenured players (probably unwisely so in Dunn’s case). In St. Louis, Jocketty’s penchant was to trade the other way, sending prospects for veterans, and to re-sign or extend contracts of veterans (e.g., Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Jim Edmonds) before they could leave as free agents. Has Jocketty learned his lesson? Possibly. It’s more likely that a) the Reds are in a different place from the 2004-era Cardinals, and b) not having presided over the Reds very long, he’s not emotionally invested in the players yet. The situation with the Reds is more akin to 1995, when Jocketty took over as the Cardinals’ GM and jettisoned vets like Todd Zeile and Bernard Gilkey (and, it should be noted, got very little in return). The Cardinals won the division within a season of Jocketty taking over. Will the Reds respond similarly?

2006 Cardinals, revisited
Speaking of the halcyon Jocketty years, THT’s Brandon Isleib schedule-normalized the results of some recent seasons (that is, with interleague and weighted-division play factored out) and found that the 2006 Cardinals were perhaps not as mediocre as their regular-season record indicated:

Two obvious oddities: the Pirates of the Lloyd McClendon era feasibly having a winning record (they were .567 against the NL East and .533 against the NL West, but only .416 against the NL Central), and the Cardinals coming off as not a bad team, mainly off their ridiculous .676 against the NL West. Once the Cards stopped facing their own division, they were actually pretty good, a bias that could partly explain the postseason success that few predicted for them.

Russ Springer, ROOGy?
In last Thursday’s game, Russ Springer faced one batter, a righty (Jorge Cantu), and struck him out. It seems that Springer has been used less lately as a traditional middle-reliever and more as a situational righty, aka ROOGy (Righthanded One-Out Guy). And, indeed, this season Springer is among the league leaders in fewest innings per game (min. 20 IP), "better" than many LOOGys, including the Cardinals’ own Ron Villone:

Whether La Runcan is saving the big righty’s arm or intentionally trying to limit his exposure to lefties, it’s working. Springer is facing about 63% righthanders, who have a measely .178 GPA against him this year. Compare that to lefties, who have a .259 GPA. That’s a platoon split worth considering.

As others see us
We attended five of the six games in which the Phillies were in town, and in four of those games, So Taguchi received a standing ovation from the Busch Stadium crowd. The experience wasn’t lost on fellow Phillie (we’re really resisting the urge to write "phellow" there) Jimmy Rollins, who created a bit of a kerfuffle with his comments on the Best Damn Sports Show Period about being dissed by the city of brotherly love:

Rollins: … for example, Ryan’s from St. Louis. You know, St. Louis, it seems like they support their team. They’re out there, and they’re encouraging. And in Philly, you can’t be no punk.

As we’ve been noticing, though, it increasingly seems that St. Louisans support former players visiting as opponents more than they loyally suport their own current players. It’s a perverse condition, since, well, it’s the fact that the player once played for the very team that the fans are supposed to be supporting that distinguishes him as a player to cheer for. Rather than being known as the best fans in baseball, St. Louisans should be known as the most sycophantic fans for the opponent in baseball. After all, just ask Jason Isringhausen if you can’t be no punk.

Bye-ku for Juan Gonzalez

Tony likes ‘roiders
So Igor got the invite
Good thing his ab’s bad.

It’s that time of year, time when, with almost all the cards dealt, you play the hand you have. The Cardinals, but for the not-minor detail of whom their last infielder will be, are fairly well settled now, what with the Reyes kerfuffle nearly resolved (or is it only beginning — again?). The team has survived its most tumultuous offseason since Tony La Russa took the reins back in 1996: Consider that, heading into the winter, the team didn’t know whether its manager was coming back, it had a different general manager at the helm, the pitching staff was a huge unknown and the players of record at centerfield, shortstop and third base — three of its most regular players over the last three years, with 20% of the team’s win shares between them over that period– were coming back (at least two of whom, anyway) under uncertain and tenuous circumstances. Since then, Tony La Russa — for better or worse — re-upped for another two seasons (theoretically), and John Mozeliak took over for the ousted Jocketty and, if he didn’t pull off a fullscale renovation, conducted a facelift so deftly that it’s easy to overlook the impact.

Going back to what we called his winter shopping list:

• Leadoff man with at least a .350 OBP
• Righthanded platoon partner for Adam Kennedy
• Young pitching
• Nothing stupid

On the first item, with Skip Schumaker — whose most bullish OBP projection is .339 (Marcel) — getting the initial nod as leadoff man, the team would appear to have missed the mark. Still it’s not as bad as it might’ve been (or still could be) if Kennedy, Cesar Izturis or Rick Ankiel had been tapped (or as bad as some NL Central opponents — see below). Speaking of Kennedy, a platoon partner may still be in the offing if Brendan Ryan comes back healthy and Kennedy struggles. We hate to root against a player succeeding, but a slow April from Kennedy may be the only thing that triggers a platoon.

So pitching, then. After much virtual gnashing of teeth among the scribbling class, the team waited out the market and got Kyle Lohse for a favorable deal, perhaps even the best buy of this offseason’s free-agent pitchers. The team locked up its best young pitcher, Adam Wainwright (something we actually asked Mo about more than a year ago), and didn’t sign any aged free agents. And Mozeliak didn’t deal Iron Cap, though we wonder if it was more out of inability due to LaRuncan depressing his value that from a true sense of wanting to keep him. (Plus, it still may be that a trade is in Reyes’s own best interests.) But the team’s GM didn’t overspend (if the silly contract extension to Pineiro was the worst, that’s pretty good).

Interestingly enough, Mozeliak cobbled together a group that supports the team’s ongoing claim that 2008 will not be a rebuilding year, at least not at the outset. Colby Rasmus will get at least a half season at Triple-A, as will the team’s best pitching prospects (save Kyle McClellan). Mozeliak was even somehow was able to get value (see poll) for Scott Rolen in Troy Glaus at a time when La Russa’s mouth had sunken Rolen’s trade value to new depths. The scuttled negotiations with David Eckstein, which resulted in Cesar Izturis, was one of the few indiscretions of the team’s offseason. With the season backweighted with possible returns of star pitchers and of Rasmus, the best is perhaps yet to come — and the team has put itself in a position to compete on Opening Day, to boot. All things considered, the Cardinals not only survived a long offseason but are coming out a better team than when they went in.

Grass is greener?
It’s often instructive to look beyond one’s own team to obtain perspective. No team has a perfect situation. Take the odds-on favorite to win the NL pennant, the Mets: According to Newsday, the Cardinals’ old friend Fernando Tatis may again play for a major-league team:

But with Moises Alou sidelined by hernia surgery and the Mets desperate to balance their lefty-heavy lineup, it appears that Tatis may have arrived just in time to make the Opening Day roster…
While his regular position is third base, Tatis was back in leftfield again yesterday, and the Mets are making it obvious that they’re leaning toward him.

When an also-ran like Tatis can land with a contender like the Mets, it makes Juan Gonzalez’s tryout with the Cardinals a bit less pathetic. And the Mets aren’t the only ones whose fans have been humbled by certain players on their rosters, some playing prominent roles. Among divisional rivals, things aren’t always greener, either. Consider that:

• Jason Marquis, projected 5.1 VORP, will be the Cubs’ fifth starter.
• Kaz Matsui, projected .313 OBP, will be leading off for the Astros.
• Woody Williams, projected 3.7 VORP, is the Astros’ fourth starter getting paid $6.5 million by the Astros not to play.
• Corey Patterson, .projected 317 OBP, will "kick start" the Reds’ offense.

When Anthony Reyes is your team’s 24th or 25th man, things could evidently be a lot worse.

But he’s not threatening to use it on anyone
McClellan appears to have made club — Post-Dispatch headline

Breaking news from 1993-2008
Pirates try to end losing ways — Post-Dispatch headline

That’s creative of him!
Jimenez making case for Cards roster — MLB.com headline

Reliable sources

• Reyes is likely to go to Memphis — Post-Dispatch headline
• Reyes looks to be bullpen front-runner — MLB.com headline
• Brad Thompson: Likely Headed to Bullpen — Yahoo! Sports headline
• Reyes sticks with Cardinals as long reliever — Yahoo! Sports headline
• Solid start could send Thompson to rotation — Post-Dispatch headline

Bottom stories of the day

• Blagojevich says Cubs should stay at Wrigley Field forever — CBS Sportsline headline
• Former Yankees staffer: ‘No way Alex was on juice’ –CBS Sportsline headline

Duties include collecting rosters
Cards’ McClellan makes case for bullpen job — MLB.com headline

Sherman’s predictions
Joel Sherman thinks he knows what’s going to happen this summer:

Those best of enemies, the Cardinals and Cubs, make a trade with rebuilding St. Louis dealing Jason Isringhausen to Chicago, which learns it cannot trust Kerry Wood in the end game.

Sherman clearly doesn’t follow the Cubs, nor is he much of a prognosticator. If Kerry Wood stays healthy long enough for the Cubs not to trust him in the end game, it’s obviously a sign of the endtimes.