The BBWAA selected Detroit pitcher Justin Verlander as the American League Most-Valuable Player. The last Cardinal pitcher to be voted MVP, of course, was Bob Gibson in 1968. But Justin Verlander is no Bob Gibson.
Make no mistake: Verlander had a monster year in 2011, finishing fourth among the AL’s pitchers in FIP, second in xFIP and second in WAR. Among all junior-circuit players, he ranked seventh in WAR:
In short, he had a super season. But the bottom line is this:
He wasn’t the best player in his league
He was arguably not even the best pitcher in his league
Roll back the clock then to 1968, when Gibson likewise took both the Cy Young and the MVP (and a Gold Glove, to boot). Gibson led not only the NL but all of baseball in FIP. Among all NL players, he by far led in WAR (Baseball-Reference.com version):
Player
WAR
Bob Gibson
12.2
Tom Seaver
7.4
Willie McCovey
7.1
Ferguson Jenkins
7.1
Roberto Clemente
7.1
Willie Mays
6.6
Jim Wynn
6.4
Jerry Koosman
6.3
Juan Marichal
6.2
Felipe Alou
6.1
In fairness, this is a bit of an apples-and-oranges comparison, since Baseball Reference calculates WAR differently from Fangraphs, our default source for WAR (including the 2011 AL numbers above). And because B-Ref uses ERA rather than FIP, Gibson gets a boost, since his minuscule ERA in 1968 — 1.12 — was even better than his FIP — 1.77 (B-Ref uses actual runs allowed to calculate WAR, rather than fielding-independent runs). But adjusting for Gibson’s FIP still leaves him above 10 WAR (by our calculations), clearly above the other pitchers, as well as Hank Aaron, who led NL hitters with 7.9 WAR in 1968. If you’re still not swayed, consider that Gibson had an outsized impact on the game, facing 1161 batters, whereas Aaron batted “only” 676 times. Verlander didn’t have nearly that disparity, facing 969 batters while Ellsbury took 732 plate appearances.
We’ll grudgingly concede the Cy Young to Verlander (though we opted for Sabathia based on his fielding-independent performance). But the MVP should be reserved for the league’s best player overall, not merely a superlative pitcher whose team reaches the playoffs. Of Verlander and Gibson, that applies only to the latter.
Comment: Carpenter led the staff in WAR by far with 5.0. Garcia was a distant second with 3.6.
Award 3: Regular Season Game of the Year
April 3 vs. San Diego (Garcia shutout)
September 7 vs. Milwaukee (Carpenter shutout, Morgan dustup)
September 24 vs. Chicago (Marmol meltdown)
September 28 at Houston (Carpenter shutout on last day)
Comment: The Sept. 24 comeback proved the team’s never-say-die mettle. The game graph was one of the most delightful of the season, not to mention Ryan Theriot’s 10.78 leverage-index plate appearance, the highest of the team’s season.
Award 4: Post-Season Game of the Year
NLDS Game 5 (Carpenter vs. Halladay)
NLCS Game 6 (sent Cards to World Series)
WS Game 3 (Pujols 3 HR)
WS Game 6 (two rallies with one strike left)
WS Game 7 (champions)
Comment: As someone who remembers the 1986 World Series Game 6 (as a Mets fan), we must say that the 2011 Game 6 takes the cake, with not one but two utterly improbable comebacks.
Comment: A surprise is something unexpected or astonishing. Berkman’s return to prominence may have been greater than planned, but it was just that: a return. Kyle Lohse, on the other hand, tossed career bests in FIP (3.67) and xFIP (4.04). Given consecutive ballooning-FIP seasons from 2008-2010, no one (not even Dave Duncan) could’ve expected Lohse’s best campaign of his career at age 32.
Comment: Rasmus had the deck stacked against him, with his manager unwilling to support him through a prolonged slump, which in turn led to a cascade of problems. A couple of minor injuries along the way didn’t help (abdominal muscle pull, calf strain), but ultimately Rasmus didn’t come close to following up his high-expectation-setting 4.3-WAR 2010 season (1.3 WAR in 94 games). As for the others, realistically low expectations meant that their poor seasons couldn’t be disappointing.
Comment: The fact that Berkman didn’t have any competition in this category shouldn’t detract from his worthiness. He was quite possibly the best offseason acquisition of any team last winter.
Comment: Given the price paid for Dotel, Jackson and Rzepczynski and the lack of contract longevity for the first two, we couldn’t consider any of them (even Dotel, who had the most impact, with 0.9 WAR) as the best. Furcal didn’t provide the offensive bang or the defensive solidity that the team expected, but at the time, it was the best move.
Yes, Adams is exciting and put himself on the map this year. But the most anticipated is still Miller, even if some shine is off the apple due to his worrying “drug of abuse” suspension.
Award 11: Best Individual Cardinal Blog (written mainly by one person)
Award 12: Best Team Cardinal Blog (written by two or more people)
Award 13: Best Professional Cardinal Blog
Bird Land
Cardinal Beat
Obviously, You’re Not A Golfer
Award 14: Best Rookie Cardinal Blog (began December 1, 2010 or later)
Aaron Miles‘ Fastball” /> Aaron Miles’ Fastball
Birds On The Bat 82
El Maquino
Bleed Cardinal Red With Me
Cards Droppings
Good Morning, Good Afternoon, Goodnight
Redbird Dugout
The Redbird Menace
Rob Says Really?
STL: Fear The Red
As part of the benign oligarchy that is the group of ESPN SweetSpot bloggers, we occasionally participate in group votes. Today we present our completed ballot for the 2011 MLB awards. Alas, no Cardinals made it, though Allen Craig was an honorable mention for Rookie of the Year.
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