With Carlos Silva throwing a lot of strikes — 11 of 17 pitches in the first inning and an MLB-leading 70.3% first-pitch strike rate (league average is around 59%) — Matt Holliday went up looking to hit and ripped a single to right field on the second pitch of his at-bat, a sinker. One of only five Cardinals with experience with Silva, the Cardinal left fielder faced Silva twice in a game in Seattle last year, striking out swinging on a slider and knocking a ground-ball single on a four-seam fastball.

Colby Rasmus also went up pumping, swinging through a sinker on the outside edge of the plate then watching a near-replica strike two call. After a ball high and away, Rasmus took pitch two inches off the plate for a horrible third-strike call by home-plate ump Hunter Wendelstedt. Silva starts to pick up confidence: All sinkers, all away to Rasmus.

To David Freese, Silva mixed it up a bit with a first-pitch changeup, with which he K’ed Ludwick in the first. Then we got some explanation for the seemingly resurgent pitcher’s early 2010 success: Cub Centerfielder Marlon Byrd makes a strong defensive play to snag Freese’s dying liner. Silva’s BABIP so far is a better-than-average .281 — his career norm is .312 — so we’re skeptical that people will be touting his praises as they are now come the end of the year. For Byrd’s part, though the Fox announcers quote Bob Brenly as saying Byrd is second-best only to Andruw Jones at coming in on balls from center, he has a career -2.7 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Above Average per 150 Defensive Games) in centerfield and only 1.0 UZR/150 in the outfield generally.

That brought up Yadier Molina, whom we were a bit surprised got the middle-game start over Jason La Rue, who has two home runs in 10 PAs against Silva. (La Runcan likely preferred the steady Molina for Adam Ottavino’s debut.) With Holliday festering on first, Silva worked Molina outside and in, alternatingly getting foul balls on the outer half and busting him on the hands. On pitch six, is Molina set up to go away? Yes, and Molina fouled it off. Sure enough, Silva came back inside on pitch seven with a nasty slider for a called strike three, right on the black. Molina asked for a clarification from Wendelstedt, who replied that it "touched the plate."

After throwing all fastballs — fast,yes, but uncontrolled — in the first, Ottavino unveiled his slider to Byrd, leading off the Cubs’ half, and induced him into a groundout to second.

Mike Fontenot, after fouling off a fastball, didn’t get fooled by Ottavino’s changeup up in the zone and tripled into the gap. But the Cardinal rookie found the strike zone again with his fastball and, with the infield playing in on Starlin Castro, he gets another grounder to second.

That brought up Koyie Hill, whom, with the pitcher on deck, Ottavino didn’t need to give anything too meaty. But he did, and got out of the inning, like his counterpart Silva and Alfred P. Doolittle, with a little bit of luck, as Hill lined out to Rasmus.

Keep the number 10 on your back for another day and [create your] lineup. If the playoffs began today, assuming everyone is healthy and knowing only what we now know about this team … while certain spots are clearly no-brainers, there is plenty of room for debate.

The reasons for batting Colby Rasmus sixth have swayed me:

• More beneficial opportunities to steal
• Break up the two lefties (Schumaker) at the top of the order
• Use some higher-OBP hitters at the top.

With a CHONE-projected .350 OBP, Felipe Lopez looks good in the #2 spot. Given some flexibility with Lopez as a switch hitter, and Skip Schumaker’s and David Freese’s platoon advantages, here are a couple different lineups:

Vs. LHP

1. Lopez, 2B
2. Freese, 3B
3. Pujols, 1B
4. Holliday, LF
5. Ludwick, RF
6. Rasmus, CF
7. Molina, C
8. [pitcher]
9. Ryan, SS

Vs. RHP

1. Schumaker, 2B
2. Lopez, 3B
3. Pujols, 1B
4. Holliday, LF
5. Ludwick, RF
6. Rasmus, CF
7. Molina, C
8. [pitcher]
9. Ryan, SS

The first lineup projects to create about 5.0 runs per game, as does the second.

At this point in time, who do you see as the starting third baseman: Joey Bombs Mather, David Freese, or Felipe Lopez? I ask this because a third baseman can be a cornerstone of a solid defense, as well as provide concrete impact offensively.

We wouldn’t be surprised if Felipe Lopez were in the lineup as the opening-day starting third baseman against Aaron Harang, whom Lopez hits well (.538 OBP in 13 PAs). After that, Freese is likely the man, at least most of the time. His off-the-field problems don’t seem to bother the Cardinals, so even if he commits another gaffe outside the lines, we don’t see it endangering his job as much as a prolonged funk at the plate, which the Cardinals will be less inclined to endure given Lopez as a more-than-serviceable option. As for defense, Freese offers the best leather. Mather, if he makes the squad, appears slotted for all the corner spots but third.

If you were Tony La Russa, what on-field move (or moves) would you make for 2010, and why? (Examples: Platoon Lopez and Freese at 3B, bat Colby second, use a four-man rotation. Not examples: Make sure Albert is Albert, trade for a righthanded reliever, extend Pujols’s contract)

Daniel Shoptaw, C70 at the Bat:

Tactical decision making isn’t necessarily my forte, but neither is blogging and I do it anyway. I really think that Pip’s second example, batting Colby second, would be the most likely thing I’d do as TLR.

Rasmus has hit lefties in the past in the minors and I think continued exposure to them will only help, so I worry less about the LOOGY coming in to get him and Skip at the top of the lineup. (Besides, you could pinch-hit for Skip with Lugo or Lopez, right?) If Rasmus can get back to a more patient approach at the plate, something you’d think McGwire would emphasize, he can get on in front of Albert and that’s always a good thing.

He won’t get to run much in that situation, but at least he’s got the speed to go first-to-third when Albert pokes one to the outfield or score from first if he or Holliday can split the outfielders. I really hope that’s what we’ll see out of the two hole this year.

Brad Belote, Cardinals Country:

We have several contributors here. Their thoughts:

Doug: Tony needs to keep Brendan Ryan and Ryan Ludwick out of his doghouse

Greg: I would stick with a consistent line-up. It felt like the Cardinals had a different batting order for almost every game last season and the offense struggled to score runs because of it. It was especially frustrating when Ryan Ludwick or Colby Rasmus had multi-hit games one day, then found themselves on the bench the next. Hopefully this will be less of a problem with two of Tony’s favorites — Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel — completely out of the picture for the whole season.

Mike: Kind of a wild idea, but how about move Penny to closer, and Franklin back to set up guy. You still have Carp, Waino, Lohse, and company in the rotation. This would solidify a young bullpen. Bam! Lock it up, Central Division Champs!

Nick, Pitchers Hit Eighth:

I would limit the amount of innings Yadier Molina is catching.

I’m not trying to make a case for seeing more Jason LaRue, but 2009 saw Molina play 1176.2 innings behind the plate – 139.1 more than his previous career high – in 136 starts (also a career high, by 18 starts).

As much credit as Yadi receives for his superior defense, I’d argue that Molina’s value to the Cardinals is largely undervalued. Most see his ability to block balls in the dirt, throw out baserunners, and generally play a sound defensive game behind the plate but neglect to see the full picture of how Molina alters what opposing managers do with their game strategy. The Cardinals routinely lead MLB in fewest stolen base attempts against them.

LaRue was signed to be the backup for his defensive capabilities, but he lacks Yadi’s improving presence at the plate. Beyond Molina and LaRue in the organization, there isn’t anyone who could step in and offer what Molina does on a day-to-day basis. Bryan Anderson supposedly projects as a big-league hitter, but lacks in defensive ability. Matt Pagnozzi is a light-hitting glove man.

Without digging up specific evidence or statistics, I think it safe to say anecdotally that catchers have careers with a shorter lifespan than other position players or pitchers, on average. We often see catchers move to first base after years of abusing their knees and other body parts behind the plate – Molina may not have that option in St. Louis if Pujols remains around, nor does Molina necessarily carry a big enough bat to warrant such a move when his catching days are over.

So why not give Yadi day games off after a night game? Give him a day off once a week – let him rest and recover – and extend his career both for his benefit and the pitchers he handles.

Travis, Fredbird Follys:

Ok, now just bare with me here people, I’m about to suggest something drastic.

I would talk to Pujols about moving to 3rd.

Whoa, whoa, pitchforks down people, I’m just saying that I would talk to him about it. And here’s why.

Pujols had a really great year at 3rd when he came up. We would still have his offensive potency and knowing Pujols’ work ethic and talent, I believe we would still have an above average defensive 3rd basemen. I’m not saying that I’d play him there every day, but I would play him there once a series at least (if it works out.).

This would make David Freese only have to be a replacement 3rd basemen which I believe more fits his talent set. It would allow Pujols, Allen Craig, Joe Mather, and, as Nick suggested, Yadier Molina to all split time at first. This would give Yadi’s knees the much needed break they deserve, and allow Mather and Craig to compete for a more permanent spot in the lineup. Felipe Lopez could switch off at 3rd with Pujols (when he play first) and let Julio Lugo be the backup for the middle infield. we would also have Allen Craig and Joe Mather as backup outfielders and really give Tony a lot of flexibility in his lineup choices. I’m not sure if he likes to play with the lineup, but he could if he ever gets antsy.

I know Pujols boasts being able to play a wide variety of positions, and I would just like to see Tony use that talent more. I think Pujols would welcome the challenge and still keep that dangerous bat in the lineup.

I would also try out Rich Hill as a closer, but that’s just me.

Long story short, I have little to no faith in David Freese and am confident in Franklin until he gives up an RBI, then I’m gonna start to worry.

Chris Reed, Birdbrained:

I think I would give Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs some looks at closer. I know Ryan Franklin is "the guy" but, regardless of the reasoning, he did not look great down the stretch in 2009. I think he can have another good year, but if he is overexposed again or goes down with an injury the Cards are screwed barring outside help. And Franklin won’t be around forever; someone will need to take over at closer after 2011 at the latest. Why not look from within? Why not get a pitcher or two into some of these situations now rather than when the heat is on?

Michael Riehn, Whiteyball:

If I were Tony LaRussa, I would do everything I could to keep Felipe Lopez in the lineup (500-550 plate appearances) without hurting the development of David Freese. His on base percentage in the two slot (or leadoff versus a left hander) is an important key to improve the lineup.

I’d have a straight platoon at second base with Lopez (vs. left) and Schumaker (vs. right). I’d also do a 50% platoon vs. right handers with Freese and Lopez at third base. That would give Freese 425-450 plate appearances, so as not to impede his development, but keep Lopez’s potent bat in the two slot as much as possible.

If Rich Hill makes the starting rotation, I’d also insert Lopez at shortstop (instead of Ryan) during those games. Hill is an extreme fly ball pitcher, thus reducing the effectiveness of a stellar shortstop. You could also throw Lopez in the outfield for 40-50 at bats, when one of your outfielders need a break, but only if Wainwright or Carpenter are pitching. Their extreme ground ball tendencies reduce the fielding needs for our corner outfielders.

Mike Metzger, Stan Musial’s Stance:

I’d make McClellan the set-up guy and Motte the ‘low leverage’ guy. Note that opinion is not based on their respective performances so far in spring training. Like most, I am a bit queasy regarding Franklin, but I don’t trust Motte at all at this point. He reminds me too much of Todd Worrell circa 1987 and on, when everything came to the plate straight and fast, and left the bat fast with a soaring trajectory.

McClellan, to me, has the mental makeup to succeed at the back of games should Franklin fail. Yes, he’s auditioning for he #5 starter gig, but I’d stop that, hand the job over to Garcia or someone.

Once Motte had some innings and success under his belt, then perhaps get him in the high leverage late inning action.

Oh, and I’d definitely hit Rasmus second, and give Molina more days off. Both of those were great suggestions.

Justin Adams:

Could you feel the collective pause as we all raised our left eyebrow and drifted into the skipper’s state of mind? I bet La Russa himself is thoughtfully scanning the spring turf as we speak for a kernel of the unconventional to nurture and harvest. With most positions secured, seasons past have certainly been more ripe in this way.

Let me throw one out that probably won’t happen, but to me is not so farfetched…Brendan Ryan for primary leadoff duties.

Let me be clear that I have no qualms whatsoever with incumbent Skip Shumaker in this role. And truth be told, between Ryan, Schumaker, and Felipe Lopez, it was Lopez who posted the highest OBP (.383), average (.310), and BB (71). Though he also led the group with 100 K’s. But when I consider Ryan’s demeanor, I can easily imagine him having success in the role. His defense is a testament to his ability to operate on the fly. Catch and throw. The less thought involved the better. Whether in the field, on the base paths, or in the clubhouse, his mistakes seem to happen when multiple objectives are vying for his attention.

His puckish disposition has been well-chronicled by the media, but in the leadoff spot might this be an advantage? Perhaps even playing to some of his strengths? I like the idea of sending Ryan to the plate for that first at bat with a single command, Get on base. Like a Labrador. As Pseudo-Tony, I’d let him run for a while and would be surprised if his numbers didn’t justify the move. Follow him with either Skip or Flip in the 2-spot and someone is bound to be on base for the big dogs.

Jeff Stearns, Five O’Clock Blogger:

I would like TLR to take the field before the first pitch of Opening Day and publicly apologize for carrying eight relievers last year. When your bench already is handicapped by a below-replacement-level backup catcher — forcing you to pinch-hit with a pitcher — carrying 13 pitchers is inexcusable. Twelve’s even too many for my taste.

Failing that, I would like to never see Trever Miller or Dennys Reyes face a right-handed batter ever again.

/end TLR rant

1. Which Cardinal do you expect to have a big 2010 season and why? And you can’t pick AP, he has a big season every year.

2. There are millions of Cardinal fans across the country and around the world, but only a handful decided to write, either professionally or for fun, about the team. What compelled you to start writing about the Cardinals? Or for our professional brethren, what led you to a career in sports journalism?

1. Jason Motte will have a relatively big season. He had an abnormally high HR/FB rate in 2009 (especially given his home park) and healthy K/9 and K/BB (second-best among relievers) numbers. His BABIP against was slightly high at .308 despite having a low line-drive rate (16.7%). If La Russa gives him some opportunities, he’ll be the setup man and possibly the closer by the end of the season.

2. It’s ironic that we now write about the Cardinals, since when we began Fungoes back in 2004, we were still a Mets fan. The blog actually started as way to share our thoughts with some friends on the playoffs that year (the original name was “Fall Classic”). We loved writing about baseball so much that we simply kept going, retitling the blog and focusing more on the Cardinals. Having been cursed to follow the Mets, we found that blogging about the Cardinals was a way to escape our fate and enjoy a more salutary relationship with the game (and it probably allowed us to cover the team with a little more objectivity). We converted (or, as we like to say, reverted) to the Cardinals after they broke the Curse of Keith Hernandez, which we wrote about back in 2006.

It will come as little surprise to anyone who knows us (or at least our writing) that we claim to have the most different variations of Keith Hernandez cards. Our favorite was always his 1981 Topps, which showed his tiger-like fielding stance, his striped socks, flip-up sunglasses and a beautiful view of his mitt, which we always lusted for (we settled for a Hutch fielder’s glove with no signature). Other favorites:

• 1954 Jackie Robinson: This one belonged to our father-in-law, a lifelong Dodgers’ fan, when he was a kid. A special gift, and a special player.
• 1956 Sandy Koufax rookie: Ditto
• 1981 Fleer George Brett: In the spot on the card where mortal players’ positions were listed, Brett’s instead had “390 Average.” How cool is that?
• 1984 Donruss Don Mattingly rookie: A beautiful card that everyone wanted back in the day. Heck, that 1984 Donruss design was so elegant that it made cards of guys like Scott Garrelts look magnificent. Almost.
• 1987 Topps BJ Surhoff “Future Star”: We actually mailed it to Surhoff and he returned it autographed. Loved the Future Stars logo, though not as much as the Topps All-Star Rookie Cup that it replaced.

If you were dropped on planet Earth an expert on baseball but with no favorite team, what team would you most enjoy watching? Would it be the Cardinals or would it be another team and why?

Love the question. As I was once a Cardinal fan, then a Met fan (for a very dark period in my life, I assure you), and now a Cardinal fan again, I’ve thought about this before; here are some of my considerations:

1. Team history: Longevity is probably as important as success, though that’s certainly helpful. It’s hard to see the three newest teams as anything but upstarts. Short list: Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Phillies, Cubs, Reds, Tigers, Pirates.
2. Ballpark experience: An enjoyable ballpark experience goes a long way toward how much I’d want to follow my team; I could endure a lot of losing if the park were an idyllic place to watch a game. Therefore, you’re automatically out if you play in a dome or have too many gimmicks (Astros) or exchange a grand old park for a grotesquely configured band box (Yankees). I haven’t been to all the parks, but I’ve seen enough. Top locations: Orioles, Pirates, Cardinals, Giants, Cubs.
3. Fan culture: Fans are an extension of a team. With whom do I want to be associated: obnoxious boors, lovable but drunken losers, sarcastic smartypants, beach-ball-obsessed Hollyweirdos, battery-throwing goons, fairweather rascals? Cardinal Nation has lost some of its claim to fame, but they’re still among the best, at least in terms of loyalty: Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Red Sox, Rangers.
4. Organization: Of course, the organization itself matters, from the ownership to the executive management to the manager to the players. The Cardinals barely make the list for the entire McGwire affair, but their history and current crop of uniformed talent (their manager notwithstanding) helps. Short list: Rockies, Cardinals, Rays, A’s.

The Cardinals may not be first in every category, but they’re the only team among the best in each (though, curiously, the Pirates were well-represented).

The upcoming contract of Albert Pujols has been through much speculation this offseason. While the future Hall of Famer has two years remaining on his contract, it has been cause for concern for many in Cardinal nation. The question that hasn’t been asked, because it seems obvious, is SHOULD we sign Pujols to a longterm contract? This question isn’t as easy as you might think at first glance.

What say you Cardinal bloggers? Is Pujols worth 10 years 25 million dollars? Would you sign him for 10 years 30 million? Are you confident he will be worth it? If so why? What would he have to produce over 10 years as a break even?

As Daniel and Chris have noted, the statistical comparisons of Pujols and Thomas are perhaps insufficient, but mostly because of fielding, which granted is no small thing. But given their wOBA through their age-29 seasons — .436 and .447, respectively — it’s difficult to argue that Pujols is a better hitter. The point that we think Michael is making here is salutary: As fans we tend to think that players — especially great ones — aren’t subject to the laws of science, specifically aging. And in that, Thomas should make us pause and dispassionately consider how neither Pujols is above the effects of aging and decay. Thomas’s latter-career physical breakdown is more the rule than an exception. The simple reality is that by the time Pujols’s current contract ends, we likely will have seen his best, and not only will he fail to improve, he’ll actually get worse. True, worse is a relative term: Even diminished, Pujols is still better that most players (as Thomas was). But there’s a lot of money between “better than average” and $30 million a year. As much as Cardinal fans clamor for the team to “do whatever it takes” to keep Pujols a Cardinal for the rest of his career, given their treatment of past players who made considerably less money, we seriously doubt their ability to graciously endure a player whose declining production increases the disparity between his value and his pay and quite possibly inhibits the team’s ability to win.

We propose something a bit radical (big surprise, we know): If, as Pujols, claims, it’s not principally about the money but on being part of a competitive team, the Cardinals can honor their superstar with a lifetime contract, but one whose value is based on Pujols’s actual current performance (and not his past) and that allows Pujols to opt-out if the team is no longer competitive. For example, Fangraphs estimates the three-time MVP to have a free-agent value of between $32 and $35 million in 2010. If he were to sign such a contract extension/restructure this spring and performed as expected, his salary for 2010 would be between $32-35 million (rather than the $16 million he is currently to receive). As he went on playing, his salaries might be something like $30m, $25m, $20m, $15m, $11m, $7m, etc. That would represent good faith on his part: He would be paid approximately what he was worth (at least on the playing field, which, granted, is only part of his total value). For the Cardinals’ part, they would provide a clause whereby Pujols could become a free agent if they, for example, had back-to-back losing seasons (or three of five, etc.). Will it happen? Of course not. But come 2011, both parties — either Pujols, due to a career-threatening injury, or the Cardinals due to the siren song of east-coast dollars — may find themselves wishing they would have.

Our thoughts on Mark McGwire returning are well-documented already, so we won’t rehash that. As for whether he will be successful as a hitting coach, we get the feeling that local media and members of the organization doth protest too much (the sycophantic coverage from the Post-Dispatch and others borders on mawkish). More directly, with so much hype and emotional and reputational investment from “the boss,” it’s hard to imagine that any player who feels McGwire isn’t doing the job is going to a) feel empowered to speak up and b) have much hope that anyone would do anything about it, anyway. With most coaches, the benefit of the manager’s doubt usually rests with the players; if a coach isn’t cutting it, it’s the coach who is reprimanded or fired and not the player. In the Cardinals’ current situation, the balance of power seems to have swung the other way. Think about it: What surer way to land in Tony La Russa’s doghouse than to raise concerns about McGwire? At the first hint of dissatisfaction, the ensuing media coverage will be amplified well beyond what happens in a normal situation, potentially causing even minor indiscretions to end up in dysfunctionality. Little good can come of this tendentious hiring, but plenty of bad. The team will have enough to worry about trying to win a title without the added disruption of “office politics.” La Russa’s selfish gambit to reinstate his crony has already divided fans; it wouldn’t be surprising if it divides his clubhouse.

What is your first memory as a Cardinal fan? It could be attending your first game, or the first time you watched a really important game with your family, or perhaps the first Cardinal cap you received as a gift, or listening to Jack Buck on KMOX. For many folks there is a certain historical and/or family aspect that goes along with being a Cardinal fan, and I’m anxious to hear yours. For those who were “transplanted” into Cardinal Nation, I’m just as curious to hear how you wound up with the Redbirds.

Being from southern Illinois, my mom grew up admiring Stan Musial and Red Schoendienst, whom she’d met as a girl, and with my dad’s Chicago ties, I assume they must have settled early on that, wanting the best for their kids, they’d raise us as Cardinal fans. My earliest — or at least strongest — memories are from the 1982 championship season. Of the handful of games that my family would attend each year, I would get to buy a souvenir once a season (at one of the booths outside the stadium). My first real souvenir — as in something that had the staying power of a Star Wars figure — was a plastic bat bank. The little white bats had the logos of 10 of the National League’s 12 teams (for some reason, the Pirates and Padres weren’t represented) and clipped into the red bank, encircling it like the World Series trophy that the Cardinals would win that October. In that series, I remember feeling the vindication when Keith Hernandez, my favorite player, broke out of his slump in Game 6, and, after the Game 7 win, listening and dancing with my little brother to Kool and the Gang’s “Celebration” on our record player.