Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Questions for the Hollideal press conference

January 7th, 2010 by Pip

We wait patiently for the day when press conferences will be run without the need for in-person middle men. Until then, here are some questions for today’s press conference to re-introduce Matt Holliday that we pose into the ether of the internet.

John Mozeliak

  • How sure were you of another bidder’s offer, and how did you know?
  • How much did it take to beat it?
  • Would you have offered this deal if Holliday hadn’t played the second half with the Cardinals?
  • How much of this was driven by a need for return on losing Wallace?
  • How many offers did the Cardinals put forth?
  • Do you feel you had to pay a premium of sorts to get this deal done when you did, as opposed to waiting longer?

Matt Holliday

  • Would you have signed this deal if you hadn’t played the second half with Cardinals?
  • Given that you’re entering your age-30 season and will be playing the entirety of this contract in the decline phase of your career, how much pressure do you feel to live up to it?
  • What took so long?
  • How much did the Bay deal factor into yours?
  • How did the Rockies’ offer that you declined factor into your thoughts this winter?
  • During the negotiations, did you ever consider how your contract would affect the team’s negotiations with Albert?
  • How close were you to signing with the Orioles? Why didn’t you?

Scott Boras

  • Does the deferred contract, which makes the contract total appears bigger than it is, allow you to save face?
  • When you said back in December at the Winter Meetings that the Cardinals were "obviously one of the top eight," what did you mean, given that at least one economist has put them at #23 in overall market size?
  • When you said that "There’s nothing that prevents a successful franchise like the St. Louis Cardinals from signing two great players," were you aware of the fact that the Yankees and Mets are the only two other teams to have two $100-million contracts on the payroll?
  • If the Cardinals hadn’t met your terms, what were you going to do?

Bill DeWitt, Jr.

  • Albert Pujols has said in the past that his requirement for re-signing with the team is a commitment to winning. The Cardinals have made the playoffs seven of the last 10 years, second only to the Yankees, and now you’ve signed the top free-agent of the offseason. Is there anything more you can do to prove your commitment?
  • Some in the local media have accused you of holding the purse strings too tightly. Does this contract, the largest of the winter for any team and in Cardinal history, speak for itself as to those accusations? What else would you say to them?

Cartoon: Now serving … #5

January 7th, 2010 by Pip

now_serving_5
Thanks to Fungoes designer James McKie

Randy Johnson’s best games by FIGS

January 6th, 2010 by Pip

Randy Johnson, who has announced his retirement from baseball, pitched some of the most dominating games that the sport has seen in the last two decades, and perhaps of all-time. Here are his greatest hits by Fielding-Independent Game Score (FIGS):

Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt IP BF BB SO HR FIGS
1 5/8/2001 ARI CIN W 4-3 9 29 0 20 0 98
2 4/21/2002 ARI COL W 7-1 9 31 1 17 0 87
3 5/18/2004 ARI ATL W 2-0 9 27 0 13 0 86
4 8/28/1998 HOU PIT W 2-0 9 34 0 16 0 85
5 9/14/2002 ARI MIL W 5-0 9 32 2 17 0 83
5 5/28/1997 SEA TEX W 5-0 8 28 1 15 0 83
5 9/16/1992 SEA CAL L 1-2 9 31 1 15 0 83
8 7/15/1995 SEA TOR W 3-0 9 31 2 16 0 82
8 8/11/1994 SEA OAK W 8-1 9 32 1 15 0 82
8 7/25/2004 ARI COL L 2-3 8 30 0 14 0 82
8 4/9/2000 ARI PIT W 1-0 9 31 0 13 0 82
12 8/8/1997 SEA CHW W 5-0 9 35 3 19 0 81
13 8/15/2004 ARI NYM W 2-0 8 1/3 30 1 14 0 80
13 9/14/2003 ARI COL W 5-0 9 28 1 12 0 80
13 7/26/2005 NYY MIN W 4-0 8 26 0 11 0 80
13 8/11/1995 SEA KCR W 2-1 7 23 0 11 0 80
17 7/24/2001 ARI SDP W 11-0 7 1/3 25 2 14 0 79
17 9/7/1998 HOU CIN W 1-0 9 33 1 14 0 79
17 7/7/1995 SEA CLE W 5-3 9 34 0 13 0 79
20 8/25/2002 ARI CHC W 7-0 9 35 2 16 0 78
20 6/8/1997 SEA DET W 2-0 8 27 3 15 0 78
20 6/5/1995 SEA BAL W 2-0 9 30 1 12 0 78
20 5/15/2007 ARI COL W 3-0 6 18 0 9 0 78

His 5/8/2001 masterpiece is tied for the best since 1954, and perhaps best ever:

Rk Player Date Tm Opp IP BF BB SO HR FIGS
1 Randy Johnson 5/8/2001 ARI CIN 9 29 0 20 0 98
1 Kerry Wood 5/6/1998 CHC HOU 9 29 0 20 0 98
3 Roger Clemens 9/18/1996 BOS DET 9 32 0 20 0 95
4 Roger Clemens 8/25/1998 TOR KCR 9 30 0 18 0 93
5 Luis Tiant 7/3/1968 CLE MIN 10 36 0 19 0 92
5 Johan Santana 8/19/2007 MIN TEX 8 26 0 17 0 92
7 David Cone 10/6/1991 NYM PHI 9 31 1 19 0 91
8 Erik Bedard 7/7/2007 BAL TEX 9 27 0 15 0 90
9 Ramon Martinez 6/4/1990 LAD ATL 9 31 1 18 0 89
10 Sam McDowell 5/1/1968 CLE OAK 9 31 0 16 0 88
10 Pedro Martinez 5/12/2000 BOS BAL 9 29 0 15 0 88
10 Sandy Koufax 9/9/1965 LAD CHC 9 27 0 14 0 88
13 Randy Johnson 4/21/2002 ARI COL 9 31 1 17 0 87
13 Vida Blue 7/9/1971 OAK CAL 11 40 0 17 0 87
13 Dwight Gooden 9/12/1984 NYM PIT 9 32 0 16 0 87
13 Nolan Ryan 7/9/1972 CAL BOS 9 29 1 16 0 87
13 Hideo Nomo 5/25/2001 BOS TOR 9 28 0 14 0 87
13 Bobby Witt 6/23/1994 OAK KCR 9 28 0 14 0 87
19 Curt Schilling 4/7/2002 ARI MIL 9 29 2 17 0 86
19 Frank Tanana 6/21/1975 CAL TEX 9 35 0 17 0 86
19 Art Mahaffey 4/23/1961 PHI CHC 9 32 1 17 0 86
19 Roger Clemens 7/12/1997 TOR BOS 8 30 0 16 0 86
19 Dwight Gooden 9/17/1984 NYM PHI 8 30 0 16 0 86
19 Nolan Ryan 8/17/1990 TEX CHW 10 34 0 15 0 86
19 Randy Johnson 5/18/2004 ARI ATL 9 27 0 13 0 86

And unlike one-hit wonders like Ramon Martinez and Frank Tanana, Johnson has three of the top 25 games since 1954 (all as a Diamondback).

Twelve Days of Christmas 2009: Day 12

January 5th, 2010 by Pip

On the twelfth day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
twelve first-place votes receiving,
(nearly) eleven ultimate zone a-rating,
ten titles winning,
nine runs a game creating,
eight WAR achieving,
seven triples tripping,
six wins off-walking,
five All-Star Games;
four expected fielding-independent runs,
three MVPs,
two Gold Gloves,
and a Cooperstown inductee.

  1. In December, the Veterans Committee elected longtime Cardinal manager Whitey Herzog to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
  2. Catcher Yadier Molina and pitcher Adam Wainwright won their second and first Gold Gloves, respectively.
  3. Albert Pujols won the third MVP award of his career, surpassing Rogers Hornsby and tying Stan Musial.
  4. The Cardinal pitching staff posted a 4.05 expected Fielding-Independent Pitching run average, fourth in the National League and their best since 2005 (3.96).
  5. On July 15, the Cardinals hosted the fifth major-league All-Star Game to be held in St. Louis, tied for the third-most of any city.
  6. The Cardinals had six walk-off wins in 2009, with their final two coming back-to-back against the Cubs:
    1. July 1 vs. Giants (Rasmus home run)
    2. July 29 vs. Dodgers (Pujols single)
    3. Aug. 16 vs. Padres (Rasmus home runs)
    4. Aug. 28 vs. Nationals (Pujols home run)
    5. Sept. 18 vs. Cubs (Holliday home run)
    6. Sept. 19 vs. Cubs (Ryan single)
  7. Brendan Ryan led the team with seven triples, the most since David Eckstein in 2005 (7).
  8. Albert Pujols led the league with 8.4 Wins Above Replacement, the third time in his career he eclipsed the eight-WAR mark. 8.4 WAR means that his value as a free agent would’ve been around $38 million.
  9. After arriving with the Cardinals, Matt Holliday created about nine runs per game. By ESPN’s method, he created 8.92 RC27, by Baseball-Reference’s, 9.5 RC/G, and by our extrapolation of Fangraphs’s wRC, 8.7 wRC27.
  10. In 2009, the Cardinals won their 10th division title, tied for the second-most in the league since divisional play began in 1969 (Braves are first with 16).
  11. Brendan Ryan led NL shortstops with a 10.6 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), best for any Cardinal shortstop since the stat began in 2002.
  12. Adam Wainwright received 12 first-place votes for NL Cy Young from the Baseball Writers Association of America, the most of any pitcher (including winner Tim Lincecum, who received 11).

Twelve Days of Christmas 2009: Day 11

January 4th, 2010 by Pip

On the eleventh day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
(nearly) eleven ultimate zone a-rating,
ten titles winning,
nine runs a game creating,
eight WAR achieving,
seven triples tripping,
six wins off-walking,
five All-Star Games;
four expected fielding-independent runs,
three MVPs,
two Gold Gloves,
and a Cooperstown inductee.

  1. In December, the Veterans Committee elected longtime Cardinal manager Whitey Herzog to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
  2. Catcher Yadier Molina and pitcher Adam Wainwright won their second and first Gold Gloves, respectively.
  3. Albert Pujols won the third MVP award of his career, surpassing Rogers Hornsby and tying Stan Musial.
  4. The Cardinal pitching staff posted a 4.05 expected Fielding-Independent Pitching run average, fourth in the National League and their best since 2005 (3.96).
  5. On July 15, the Cardinals hosted the fifth major-league All-Star Game to be held in St. Louis, tied for the third-most of any city.
  6. The Cardinals had six walk-off wins in 2009, with their final two coming back-to-back against the Cubs:
    1. July 1 vs. Giants (Rasmus home run)
    2. July 29 vs. Dodgers (Pujols single)
    3. Aug. 16 vs. Padres (Rasmus home runs)
    4. Aug. 28 vs. Nationals (Pujols home run)
    5. Sept. 18 vs. Cubs (Holliday home run)
    6. Sept. 19 vs. Cubs (Ryan single)
  7. Brendan Ryan led the team with seven triples, the most since David Eckstein in 2005 (7).
  8. Albert Pujols led the league with 8.4 Wins Above Replacement, the third time in his career he eclipsed the eight-WAR mark. 8.4 WAR means that his value as a free agent would’ve been around $38 million.
  9. After arriving with the Cardinals, Matt Holliday created about nine runs per game. By ESPN’s method, he created 8.92 RC27, by Baseball-Reference’s, 9.5 RC/G, and by our extrapolation of Fangraphs’s wRC, 8.7 wRC27.
  10. In 2009, the Cardinals won their 10th division title, tied for the second-most in the league since divisional play began in 1969 (Braves are first with 16).
  11. Brendan Ryan led NL shortstops with a 10.6 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), best for any Cardinal shortstop since the stat began in 2002.