[The following is a part of the United Cardinal Bloggers' progressive game blog for May 4, 2013, focusing on the seventh inning of the Mets-Brewers game. For more posts, including the sixth and eighth innings, please visit the main entry.]

After the Cardinals surrendered their lead in the previous inning, Mike Matheny thought ahead to the seventh inning when he double-switched Daniel Descalso into the game in the pitcher’s spot in the order, due up third. But now with two of the first three batters due up for the Cardinals being left-handed, Brewer manager Ron Roenicke had the opportunity to relieve starter Yovani Gallardo with southpaw Tom Gorzelanny, against whom left-handed batters have hit .291 wOBA in his career.

Gorzelanny failed in his first assignment, though, walking Jon Jay on four straight. Credit Matheny for not ordering the next batter, Pete Kozma, to sacrifice bunt. Trailing 5-4 in Milwaukee, perhaps Matheny was following the adage “play for the win on the road, and the tie at home,” but we’ll take the outcome, regardless of the reasoning. Thus freed, Kozma followed with a looping single to right. But for the second consecutive game, Jay ran into a careless, unnecessary out, blindly running to third with his head down as he crossed second.

As we noted Saturday, the Cardinals lead the league in outs on the bases, and Jay’s boner cost the team significantly. Instead of none out, runners on first and second, including the tying run in scoring position, and a 47% win expectancy, the Cardinals had merely a runner on first with one out and a win expectancy of 30%.

With right-handed batters Ty Wigginton, Shane Robinson, Tony Cruz and Jermaine Curtis on the bench, Matheny left Descalso in to hit against the lefty, who has a career .344 wOBA against facing righties. Thankfully for Matheny and Jay, and the rest of the team, Descalso came through, socking a two-run home run to right to put the Cardinals ahead again, 6-5. The lost run would come back to haunt the team.

In the bottom half, Joe Kelly, on in relief of Adam Wainwright in the sixth, returned to the mound to face Ryan Braun, whom he had struck out five times in 10 previous plate appearances. But the Brewer left fielder ripped a leadoff single. Kelly quickly erased him by inducing a double play from first baseman shortstop third baseman Yuniesky Betancourt. Kelly, whose scoreless outing belied a 5.25 FIP (and expected FIP), got into more trouble, walking Rickie Weeks, before Matheny pulled him. Rather than call for his most-reliable reliever, Edward Mujica, with the tying run on base and a 1.83 leverage index, Matheny opted for Fernando Salas. Salas retired Spaz Gomez to end the threat.

(Continue to the eighth inning)

The Cardinal offense is potent enough to make games like Friday’s 6-1 win over the Brewers seem like no contest, especially coupled with the club’s league-leading pitching staff, which now is best in the NL with a 3.15 FIP.  But the final score masked a matter that may haunt them if they don’t address it: bad base running.

In what has become an annoying trait of the 2013 team, the Cardinals ran into three more unnecessary outs on the bases Friday, including two at home. The Cardinals now have made a league-most six outs at home plate and “lead” the NL with 15 outs on base.

It’s possible that the high number of outs on the bases is simply a function of the number of base runners. But the Cardinals are putting runners on base at just above league average: factoring out home runs, their on-base percentage is sixth in the NL.

This is a problem that the team can correct, perhaps starting with some instruction from Mike Matheny. It would be different if the club were built on speed or were compensating for the outs made by successfully taking additional bases. But they again are only slightly above league average (41%) in extra-bases taken (43%). So it’s safe to describe their running game as careless rather than aggressive.

Allen Craig and David Freese getting thrown out at home trying to score and Jon Jay getting caught too far off second base after his RBI double aren’t going to make headlines, especially not after Shelby Miller‘s fourth stellar start of the year. But if the team plans to go from good to great and succeed in the playoffs, they’ll need to learn that every out is precious and stop making them unnecessarily on the basepaths.

Teams don’t often beat the Washington Nationals when Stephen Strasburg starts, especially not when they hit only 15% line drives and walk only twice. But Jaime Garcia and the Cardinal relief corps allowed only 8% liners — two — and induced 19 ground balls, 14 by Garcia alone. It was the fourth-highest ground ball tally of his career:

Garcia got an incredible 14 of the 22 batters he faced to hit worm burners.

Other notes:

• One cheer for Matt Carpenter. He reached the sensational Stephen Strasburg for  two doubles. But one of those he marred with terrible baserunning. He didn’t watch Jose Oquendo, nor was he aware of the game state (two outs, Allen Craig coming to bat). We’ll chalk it up to the errors of youth, but Carpenter, at 27, has played enough baseball to know better.
• Why was the second baseman covering the base on the Cardinals’ hit-and-run with the left-handed Carpenter batting in the eighth inning? Carpenter hits only between 19-29% of his balls in play to the opposite field. Why not cover with the shortstop?
• Carpenter’s grounder to the second baseman’s spot was of course ruled a hit. It’s another reason why hits (and by extension, ERA) are suboptimal measures of a pitcher’s ability. (Full disclosure: We have Drew Storen on our fantasy team, and unfortunately Yahoo doesn’t have many fielding-independent fantasy stats.)
• With a fellow runner on first base, Jon Jay broke from third on a come backer to the pitcher. Broadcaster Rick Horton declared it a smart play on the rationale that Jay distracted Storen from attempting a double play, but we beg to differ for a couple of reasons. First, we doubt that Jay had any such foresight and strategy — he was simply caught too far off base. Second, if the Nationals had opted for a double play, that would’ve been a preferable outcome from the Cardinals’s standpoint: Jay would’ve scored, improving the Cardinals’ win expectancy to 96.5%. After the play, it was only 92.2.%.
• Jay does deserve credit for staying in the rundown long enough — and getting tagged out heading for the next base — for his teammates, Carpenter and Craig (who also deserve credit), to advance. Jean Segura could not be reached for comment.
• Something strange has been happening with the Stars of the Game feature at Fangraphs. Joe Kelly, who faced five batters, earned three stars, whereas Jaime Garcia, who faced 22 and had a FIP of 2.48, earned only two. Sure, Kelly  struck out Ian Desmond with the tying runs on base and had a huge game leverage index (2.71), but he also yielded a rally of his own making in the following inning and rescued only by a caught stealing on an ill-advised stolen-base attempt. We suspect small sample size among voters.

When the Cardinals extended Adam Wainwright‘s contract this spring, they figured that him earning his $97.5 million over the next five years was a decent bet. The way he’s pitching to start 2013, that bet is looking like easy money.

Entering the game, Wainwright already led major-league pitchers in WAR. And on the strength of yet another dominant performance, he extended that lead (NL: Green; AL: Red):

You know you’re pitching well when the fact that you walk a batter overshadows the 1.71 xFIP over 31 batters you just threw. But that happens when you haven’t heretofore issued a free pass. Even then, when Wainwright walked Bryce Harper in the sixth inning, the Cardinal righty’s first after 133 batters to start the season, it was more intentional than unintentional. Wainwright had second base open, and while you typically don’t like to guarantee people getting on base, Harper is 7-for-13 against Wainwright. And Adam LaRoche, who wound up with the golden sombrero, was on-deck. It was an example of a pitcher in command who, even at the cost of adding base runners, was able to pick the batters he wanted to pitch to.

Other notes:

• Wainwright’s K/BB now sits at a humble 37.00.
• We hope the Shane Robinson substitution for Jon Jay doesn’t presage a platoon. Jay is better vs. LHP (.315 career wOBA) than Robinson (.283) and the better overall player, which is not to gainsay Sugar Shane.
• Speaking of Robinson, who batted leadoff, we always find it funny when a manager subs not only for the position, but also the lineup spot. Fine, replace center fielder Jay with Robinson. But you must consider how Robinson fits into the new lineup — he’s a different player from Jay, namely not as good of a hitter. Robinson should’ve been seventh or eighth, where his offensive skills — such as speed — are better served.
• Then again, Robinson reached base twice in four appearances, so what do we know?
• Matt Carpenter made a nifty defensive play in the first. His transition to second has been much less heralded than Skip Schumaker‘s of a few seasons ago. It’s probably a combination of the lack of novelty and the fact that Carpenter is actually doing really well in the field.
• Half of the team’s eight hits were to the opposite field, and they all occurred in the fourth inning, when Robinson, Allen Craig, Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran hit consecutive liners to right off the left-handed Ross Detwiler.
• Pete “Ty” Kozma was finally out trying for third on sac bunt. The overzealousness cost the team 4% win expectancy. It’s fun when it works, but in this case, the risk — 4% — wasn’t worth the reward — 2.5%.

Is it too early to give the Rookie of the Year award to Shelby Miller? Sure. But he has started the season off impressively, including his eye-popping performance last night in the Cardinals’ 3-2 win in Washington.

Yesterday’s pairing featured a matchup of Miller and Washington’s latest could-be phenom, Anthony Rendon. Rendon won the battle, lacing an RBI double, but Miller won the war, striking out Rendon in another at-bat, along with seven other of Rendon’s teammates.

In addition to striking out eight (again) and walking only two, Miller faced a career-high 26 batters. Broadcaster Rick Horton mentioned something during the broadcast about how you know what you’re getting with veterans Adam Wainwright and Jake Westbrook, but less so with guys like Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia and Miller. But we beg to differ, at least with Miller. Check out his game-by-game performance so far in 2013:

With the exception (we know, exceptions are big if your sample size is four) of his 2013 debut, Miller has given the team FIPs ranging from 1.16 to 1.52 and, in every start, he has faced 23 to 26 batters. That reliability isn’t much different from Westbrook:

And the quality with Miller is much better. And, after all, the quality is the more important trait. Miller is now showing up in the league’s top 10 rankings:

• 2.49 tERA (fourth)
• 2.42 FIP (fifth)
• 26 strikeouts (eighth)
• 9.36 K/9 (10th)
• 26.8% strikeout percentage (eighth).

Speaking of strikeout percentage, Lance Lynn is seventh, Adam Wainwright is 11th and Jaime Garcia is 19th. It’s a good time for Cardinal pitchers to emphasize strikeouts (and perhaps no coincidence that Dave Duncan is no longer at the coaching helm), because the team no longer has the same outstanding defense that its pitching staff enjoyed during much of Duncan’s tenure. (Allen Craig, for instance, couldn’t corral a low throw and almost got himself killed on Freese’s errant throw in the eighth). It’s early yet, and BABIP doesn’t tell the whole story about defense, but the Cardinals have the second-worst in the league at .313.

Whether it’s a conscious shift in strategy or simply allowing the current crop of pitchers to do what they excel in, it’s working: The staff leads the league in tERA and FIP and is second in xFIP.

Other notes:

• We’re sure there was much joy in mainstream media ville on account of the team winning a one-run game.
• It’s too bad that ESPN colleague David Schoenfield chose Mike Minor over Miller for his All-Underrated team, but Schoenfield deserves credit for giving the nod to Allen Craig at first base.
• Their pitching may be the best in the league, but the Cardinal offense ranks 11th in wOBA and 13th in OBP. And yet they’re fourth in runs per game. According to Horton and others, it’s because the team is “doing the little things.” We’re not convinced. If the team continues to lag in getting on base — which we’re not betting on — they’ll see an attendant drop off in runs. “Doing the little things” is no substitute for avoiding outs and is not a sustainable means of scoring.
• We’re not worried about Jon Jay, who is off to a slow start. But one of his problems might be that he’s trying to pull too many pitches. One of his hitting skills is being able to go the other way, and he noticeably grounded out twice weakly on balls low and away that he customarily drives into left-center.
• Miller induced several swinging strikes with his riding fastball to righties. It’s a nasty pitch.
• The one pitcher who is a stylistic carryover from the Duncan era is Westbrook, who has the unfortunate combination of a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate (not to mention a high contact rate — second-worst in the league at 89.9%):
  
• It’s cute that Nats’ fans boo little Pete Kozma. We suppose that when your team has such little success, you don’t get many villains. Either that, or you have so many who have contributed to your manifold losses, it’s hard to differentiate.